Future cascades would work as far as 150s replacing the Pacers, and 156s replacing the 150s, with 170s replacing most of the currently 156 and 158 operated services. After that it comes unstuck though: As has been mentioned, the 158s will never be suitable for either rural or commuter use due to their poorer acceleration characteristics and narrow doors hindering loading times, and the 170s would be too heavy and too overpowered to wind up working the kinds of routes currently operated by Pacers and 150s.
As to the above Turbostar lengthening idea, I think that is an excellent scheme, and I would further that by constructing a few further trailer standards and insert them into the currently 3 car 170/1s to give four carriage units that would do away with the current pairs of XC two car 170s that operate some services-which might free up a couple more 170s.
I'd also like to see Greater Manchester receive a new fleet of lower geared, 75mph, gangway fitted 172s (Which sounds like the Turbostar "Traveller" concept that was floated for just such an eventuality about 10 years ago) to mirror the current West Midlands fleet renewal. That would free up a load of 142s and 150s from the Manchester area, which could be redeployed strengthening services in other areas of the Northern network. Might even be able to withdraw a few Pacers.
I think that a lightweight fleet of low geared 172s would be a reasonable replacement for the 142s and 150s: Something with wide double leaf, one third and two third position doors is definitely the best way forward for quick loading times on local commuter services, as has been learnt the hard way with the 142s and 143s with three doors per side, and even worse, the 141s with only two doors per side!