How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[trebor79]

The only way she's going to eliminate the virus is by keeping Scotland cut off from the rest of the world - but most importantly to her, from England. That's not going to happen.

It also won't work, as proved by New Zealand, Jersey, IoM etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It also won't work, as proved by New Zealand, Jersey, IoM etc.

NZ seems to have gone wrong. Still working on IoM and Jersey (being smaller) isn't it?

 

[takno]

The only way she's going to eliminate the virus is by keeping Scotland cut off from the rest of the world - but most importantly to her, from England. That's not going to happen.

I think that was a good wheeze over the summer - cook up some numbers that wrongly suggest that England is much worse off than Scotland, and was somehow the sick man of Europe, and then use it to whip up an independence storm. Trouble is that the figures from the rest of Europe are now most worse than the UK, and Scotland's are not really any better than England's. Plus, however quiet they are about the figures Scotland's testing is reaching a smaller proportion of the population and the track and trace is doing no better than England's.

Scotland isn't doing all that well at something that's been very much controlled in Edinburgh, and there's no Scottish exceptionalism message that can be made to stick

 

[nlogax]

It also won't work, as proved by New Zealand, Jersey, IoM etc.

Those cases in NZ bubbled up months after the virus was supposedly eliminated there and while the country was (and still is) closed to visitors. Wonder if anyone figured out why?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Sep 2020 ==

Plus, however quiet they are about the figures Scotland's testing is reaching a smaller proportion of the population and the track and trace is doing no better than England's.

Scotland's track and trace system has been doing considerably better than England's. However its capacity and effectiveness has been overwhelmed by what's been happening in the greater Glasgow area and western central belt in recent days and weeks.

 

[LAX54]

Ma'am Sturgeon's attitude to 'eliminating' the virus is a deluded one. We have all accepted the virus isn't going away anytime soon but her focus is enforcing the Scots to live a Draconian life until it is gone which is madness.

As I've said before - deaths are almost zero, hospital admissions are extremely low - so what's the issue?

New cases are going up but this is down to a number of factors. We need to start living a life as we were pre-March without all of this nonscene which is just going to damage the economy and people's lives more and more.

CJ

also be interesting to see what the real death figure was, and not just beacuse you proved 'positve' in the last / previous 28 days, would be labelled Covid whatever the cause, and I beleive we are still under the 2017 figure too !

 

[big_rig]

Those cases in NZ bubbled up months after the virus was supposedly eliminated there and while the country was (and still is) closed to visitors. Wonder if anyone figured out why?

They have had 47,000 returning New Zealanders go through their 2 week hotel quarantine on arrival, of whom 141 were found during testing to have the virus. The most likely explanation is that either one of those 141 gave it to somebody working in the quarantine facility, who passed it on from there, or that 141 is not the actual number (they weren't testing people before letting them out until the end of July or so) and that somebody got through without knowing they had it, spread it round and it took some time for the first person to develop symptoms and get tested.

There is another theory that it was contained on imported frozen food of some sort - the first recorded case was in somebody who worked in a warehouse which imported frozen goods. This seems less likely though. It seems like they will never find out how they got in, but I imagine it is the first answer which is more embarrassing for the various politicians and scientists who said that you didn't need to test people before letting them out, and that 14 days quarantine (with some mixing in shared facilities where people went for walks etc - people were not confined to their rooms) was good enough. If that is the case then not doing a few tests has cost them billions.

 

[takno]

Scotland's track and trace system has been doing considerably better than England's. However its capacity and effectiveness has been overwhelmed by what's been happening in the greater Glasgow area and western central belt in recent days and weeks.

So it's doing great until it's actually needed at any scale at all, at which point it's immediately overwhelmed?

 

[Bantamzen]

Those cases in NZ bubbled up months after the virus was supposedly eliminated there and while the country was (and still is) closed to visitors. Wonder if anyone figured out why?

Looking at their data (link below), there does seem to have been two up-scaling of testing, one late June and one late July / early August. The second one does seem to have some correlation, so perhaps the ramping up is just revealing that the virus was bubbling along there all along, just not found via testing?

COVID-19

About the Ministry of Health’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and our long-term management strategy.

www.health.govt.nz

 

[DB]

They have had 47,000 returning New Zealanders go through their 2 week hotel quarantine on arrival, of whom 141 were found during testing to have the virus. The most likely explanation is that either one of those 141 gave it to somebody working in the quarantine facility, who passed it on from there, or that 141 is not the actual number (they weren't testing people before letting them out until the end of July or so) and that somebody got through without knowing they had it, spread it round and it took some time for the first person to develop symptoms and get tested.

There is another theory that it was contained on imported frozen food of some sort - the first recorded case was in somebody who worked in a warehouse which imported frozen goods. This seems less likely though. It seems like they will never find out how they got in, but I imagine it is the first answer which is more embarrassing for the various politicians and scientists who said that you didn't need to test people before letting them out, and that 14 days quarantine (with some mixing in shared facilities where people went for walks etc - people were not confined to their rooms) was good enough. If that is the case then not doing a few tests has cost them billions.

However it got in, it does demonstrate that a policyof elimination doesn't work - if even a country like that, with a small population, one largish city and 1000 miles from their nearest neighbour, can't make work even in the short term then nobody is going to manage it in the medium term!

 

[nlogax]

So it's doing great until it's actually needed at any scale at all, at which point it's immediately overwhelmed?

No-one said 'great', just better than what's happening south of the border. Scotland's Test and Protect has been reaching approximately 90% of contacts - and will soon be enhanced with an app from next week. England's track and trace is nearer 65% to 70%.

 

[Yew]

But yes, there should be a weekly press conference again really, to inform us what their strategy is with getting us out of all this

The current weekly press conferences outline the governments stretegy perfectly, there isn't one!

 

[Class 33]

There was an item on the ITV News at 6:30 tonight about theatres/arts being at a point of a no return, and the sector needs to be up and running again as soon as possible. Andrew Lloyd Webber told a government committee that it is economically impossible to open theatres with social distancing. And they are calling on the government on a specific date when they can reopen with full capacity.

Watch for yourself this item in a minute tonight on ITV+1 at 7:49pm. Or at 19 minutes in on the ITV Player(only available until tomorrow night)

ITV News Weekday Teatime - Series 5 - Episode 181

The day's national and international news, with analysis from ITV's Correspondents.

www.itv.com

As well as theatres, there is also a threat that HALF of the UK's leisure centres could close if they can't reopen soon without social distancing. And also a number of the nation's spas could close permanently within months, because sauna and steam rooms are still not allowed to reopen!

 

[C J Snarzell]

I think Bolton is about to enter the point of no return...........

CJ

 

[Bletchleyite]

As well as theatres, there is also a threat that HALF of the UK's leisure centres could close if they can't reopen soon without social distancing. And also a number of the nation's spas could close permanently within months, because sauna and steam rooms are still not allowed to reopen!

Given the small number of nonviable businesses, might increased support for them to remain dormant for now be sensible?

 

[Jamiescott1]

Can they restrict movement in and out if a town in England like they have in Carpheilly?
Id say its pretty much unenforceable

 

[trebor79]

Can they restrict movement in and out if a town in England like they have in Carpheilly?
Id say its pretty much unenforceable

Absolutely unenforceable bar for a few people being made an example of. I guess the point is they will dissuade the majority from popping over to Auntie Mable's, or to go for a drink in Cardiff.
Whether that's going to achieve any reduction in apparent infection, and whether that's worthwhile is another question.

 

[HSTEd]

Can they restrict movement in and out if a town in England like they have in Carpheilly?
Id say its pretty much unenforceable

I did the sums for Leicester metropolitan area back when that started.

Came to the conclusion that sealing all the roads (especially since the A46 and M1 run through any reasonable cordon, so all the junctions haev to be guarded), would require about two thirds the entire sworn strength of Leicestershire Constabulary.

 

[david1212]

I think a lot of people are sick and tired now of "social distancing" and want to move on, and get on with their lives properly. With the very low deaths now, now is the time to move on from social distancing!

I fully agree.

The current deaths rate is low and given the experience and resources compared to six months ago ought not to increase again to anywhere near the peak daily rates.

The stark reality though is to either be cautious now and for the forseeable future aiming overall to keep the infection rate low and hence the current restrictions or go back to ' old normal ' for a while followed by a return to the restrictions from late March or similar.

 

[DB]

The stark reality though is to either be cautious now and for the forseeable future aiming overall to keep the infection rate low and hence the current restrictions or go back to ' old normal ' for a while followed by a return to the restrictions from late March or similar.

Why do we keep getting presented with these either/or scenarious, where both are unpalatable, and it's implied that they are the only options. That's really not the case - Sweden has had fairly light-touch restrictiosn from the beginning and managed better than the UK / France / Spain, etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why do we keep getting presented with these either/or scenarious, where both are unpalatable, and it's implied that they are the only options. That's really not the case - Sweden has had fairly light-touch restrictiosn from the beginning and managed better than the UK / France / Spain, etc.

Sweden's restrictions, if you consider voluntary and compulsory, are very similar to what we have now other than masks.

 

[DB]

Sweden's restrictions, if you consider voluntary and compulsory, are very similar to what we have now other than masks.

But they aren't! They have avoided all the petty nonsense which has worn so many people here down - the stay at home instructions, the closing of most retail and hospitality premises for several months, queues, one-way systems, random quotas of people allowed in shops, etc, and the masks of course. They've stuck to fairly simple guidelines, with relatively few actual restrictions, and apart from mass gatherings most things remained allows. Contrast here, where the rules change regularly, differ between places, are unclear and vague, with rules which are presented as if they were laws but aren't, and laws whicha re largely unenforceable, etc.

 

[Bantamzen]

But they aren't! They have avoided all the petty nonsense which has worn so many people here down - the stay at home instructions, the closing of most retail and hospitality premises for several months, queues, one-way systems, random quotas of people allowed in shops, etc, and the masks of course. They've stuck to fairly simple guidelines, with relatively few actual restrictions, and apart from mass gatherings most things remained allows. Contrast here, where the rules change regularly, differ between places, are unclear and vague, with rules which are presented as if they were laws but aren't, and laws whicha re largely unenforceable, etc.

They do seem to have been pretty calm about the whole thing unlike here. Some will argue that this is because they or more compliant as a society, but I would suggest its because they are not a society filled with hysterical wanna-be petty bureaucrats as we seem to be here. Some people have had a field day making up increasingly bizarre "solutions", others have gone ham with the stickers & hazard tape, whilst social media here has filled its boots with levels of hysteria I'm pretty sure exceed anything humanity has seen since the Middle Ages. Indeed some people seem to be determined to send us back there!

 

[Class 33]

So it appears Mr Doom and Gloom's themselves Chris Whitty and Jonathan Van Tam will be at today's press conference. This is not going to be good atall. Van Tam will be saying "I'm afraid it IS coming" regarding a second wave, and Whitty will be lecturing us with his usual "We need to keep up social distancing for a very long time yet" nonsense yet again. We've been keeping up social distancing for a very long time as it is Chris, and the damage it has and continueing to do to the UK economy, people's livelihoods and mental health has been catastrophic. We just can't continue for too much longer like this!!! It's now time to move on from this social distancing nonsense!

If indeed social distancing is still going by November after the furlough scheme ends on 31st October, then just you see how bad the unemployment figures are going to be!

 

[big_rig]

So it appears Mr Doom and Gloom's themselves Chris Whitty and Jonathan Van Tam will be at today's press conference. This is not going to be good atall. Van Tam will be saying "I'm afraid it IS coming" regarding a second wave, and Whitty will be lecturing us with his usual "We need to keep up social distancing for a very long time yet" nonsense yet again. We've been keeping up social distancing for a very long time as it is Chris, and the damage it has and continueing to do to the UK economy, people's livelihoods and mental health has been catastrophic. It's now time to move on from this social distancing nonsense!

I really don't see how we get out of this. I am coming around to the view that all things considered, I am not sure it is good for our democracy for Whitty and co, however qualified and expert they are (and they are), to be given a public platform. They are unelected advisors to the Government, whose advice is meant to be considered behind closed doors, along with advice from other parts of the civil service looking at economic or broader social issues before Ministers make and communicate a decision. Elevating them to deity status at these press conferences means the message is only ever going to be bad. And when they had a regular platform it just meant more bad news, more restrictions, etc.

Unfortunately I can see why this would be a very unpopular move with the public given the very poor response on all fronts from the Govt at the start of the pandemic (especially with Cummings etc) and it would rightly be seen as the Govt trying to cover up or silence bad news. If we get back to these frequent press conferences though it (in my mind) will only make it harder to climb down the mountain of fear which has been built up.

 

[MikeWM]

Looks like Boris has (inadvertently?) told us the next part of the plan in todays PMQs (from Hansard):

'the world we want to move to as fast as possible is a world in which everybody can take enabling tests at the beginning of the day and antigen tests to identify whether or not we have the virus., like a pregnancy test, within 15 minutes or so, so that we know whether we are able to live our lives as normally as possible. That is the vision that the Health Secretary and others have been sketching out over the last few days and that is where we intend to get to.'

'Everyone' can take 'enabling' tests 'at the beginning of the day'. That's the vision!

Totally chilling.



Edit : As for those who still think we have some sort of functioning opposition, there's also this gem from Keir Starmer

'I will hear the measures later on, but we will in principle support them, as I have supported all the measures the Prime Minister has introduced, as he well knows. It is the right thing to do, and I have asked people to follow Government advice at every opportunity.'

 

[HSTEd]

Given the small number of nonviable businesses, might increased support for them to remain dormant for now be sensible?

For how long?

We can't maintain zombie businesses on the basis that they might be permitted to reopen at some point next year or the year after.

 

[big_rig]

Looks like Boris has (inadvertently?) told us the next part of the plan in todays PMQs (from Hansard):

'the world we want to move to as fast as possible is a world in which everybody can take enabling tests at the beginning of the day and antigen tests to identify whether or not we have the virus., like a pregnancy test, within 15 minutes or so, so that we know whether we are able to live our lives as normally as possible. That is the vision that the Health Secretary and others have been sketching out over the last few days and that is where we intend to get to.'

'Everyone' can take 'enabling' tests 'at the beginning of the day'. That's the vision!

Totally chilling.



Edit : As for those who still think we have some sort of functioning opposition, there's also this gem from Keir Starmer

'I will hear the measures later on, but we will in principle support them, as I have supported all the measures the Prime Minister has introduced, as he well knows. It is the right thing to do, and I have asked people to follow Government advice at every opportunity.'

I wonder if this one is different to the '20 minute tests' Matt Hancock announced a trial of in May! A 'game changer' I think was the term (or was that for the antibody tests about the same time they bought millions of and had to throw in the bin?). There is certainly a lot of life in re-announcing all these innovations.

Coronavirus: Virus test with 20-minute results being trialled

Ten million antibody tests will also start being rolled out next week, Health Secretary Matt Hancock says.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[HSTEd]

Sixty million tests per day sounds practical!

 

[NorthOxonian]

Looks like Boris has (inadvertently?) told us the next part of the plan in todays PMQs (from Hansard):

'the world we want to move to as fast as possible is a world in which everybody can take enabling tests at the beginning of the day and antigen tests to identify whether or not we have the virus., like a pregnancy test, within 15 minutes or so, so that we know whether we are able to live our lives as normally as possible. That is the vision that the Health Secretary and others have been sketching out over the last few days and that is where we intend to get to.'

'Everyone' can take 'enabling' tests 'at the beginning of the day'. That's the vision!

Totally chilling.



Edit : As for those who still think we have some sort of functioning opposition, there's also this gem from Keir Starmer

'I will hear the measures later on, but we will in principle support them, as I have supported all the measures the Prime Minister has introduced, as he well knows. It is the right thing to do, and I have asked people to follow Government advice at every opportunity.'

I mean it's not great but it's far better than face coverings everywhere, dystopian local restrictions, and social distancing which is isolating people and ruining their mental health.

The key issue will be the accuracy of these tests - if even 1% of tests have a false positive, then about 27% of the population would get a false alarm every month. And that example false positive rate would be rather lower than what these tests would likely actually achieve - aren't the current tests something like 3% false positive?

 

[Bantamzen]

Sixty million tests per day sounds practical!

Yeah, totally practical. We just need to ramp up from 250K max a day.....

Seriously what planet are they from, and what is the colour of the sky?