Could electric cars impact rail travel demand?

[Philip Phlopp]

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/how-can-the-railway-cut-operational-expenditure.205973

The railway might need to start thinking more along those lines though, if electric cars with shorter ranges (the city car segment) really takes off and people no longer have the luxury of jumping in their car to travel across country to visit relatives.

 

[Bald Rick]

The railway might need to start thinking more along those lines though, if electric cars with shorter ranges (the city car segment) really takes off and people no longer have the luxury of jumping in their car to travel across country to visit relatives.

The minimum range for most electric cars coming to market over the next couple of years is going to be over 200 miles, and more likely 300 or more. Even the latest Renault Zoe - the definitive electric city car - has a range of 245m. This will cover very nearly all long distance car journeys, which are by their nature infrequent for any one individual. And for those driving longer distances, a break to charge back up at a 50-100kW charging station will coincide with a need to stop anyway after 3-4 hours of driving.

If anything, Rail could lose market share this way. Anecdote alert, but I know several people (including me) who will use the train for a 300-400 mile journey and hire a car the other end as the extra cost compared to driving is offset by a quicker journey time and avoiding the unpleasantness of driving on busy motorways. Recently, motorway driving has been transformed as there is less traffic around. Journey times are down, and it is much less congested. There is a great temptation to switch back to the car for the long haul, especially as it is cheaper for a (now) comparative journey time.

 

[squizzler]

I beg to differ. Unless you're driving a knackered old banger, "keeping it legal" mostly involves taking actions once a year...<snip>

What do you think all the recent entrants to the motoring community are running? I doubt all those who rushed out to Arthur Daley's when the Government was trying to discourage use of the transport system - and paid over the odds for anything with wheels that could be driven under its own power off the forecourt - are going to have the best user experience, do you?

I suspect the forum is not representative of the population as a whole, and that it may include its fair share of "silver surfers" (no offence, @Bald Rick!) with younger people generally using other forms of social media. This would miss a whole younger demographic who could not previously justify, accommodate, or even afford a car, and these barriers are not likely to have been lowered, in fact even more people might be in the same boat.

Young people shifting from car ownership is a long term trend prior to the pandemic, and the vast majority of social and economic trends have been accelerated by the pandemic.

The UIC, major engineering firms like Siemens, and big finance houses all predict a stronger future for rail after the immediate pandemic has passed. All of which suggest that, whilst productivity needs to be improved, the "operational expenditure" of the thread title might need short term curtailment, capital investment needs to continue.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Another way of looking at it is that my last annual season ticket to London before retirement was well north of £6,000. I ran a car but generally cycled to and from the station.

If I was still working I would have to confess that mine was the sort of job that could be done from home. As a result I would 'save' £6,000 straight away and also save four hours per day by not commuting. An ideal chance to engage in local activities in the evening that I had missed out on and do a lot more driving, which was previously largely confined to the weekend.

This probably needs to go on a separate thread as it is nothing directly to do with cutting operational expenditure. Reduced peak demand and hence in due course services will see to that though.

 

[Bald Rick]

that it may include its fair share of "silver surfers" (no offence, @Bald Rick!)

Hmm. I don’t have grey hair, my preferred my radio station is Radio 1, I never use cash, and it’s back to Ibiza next year or the year after. If that makes me a silver surfer, then guilty as charged!

Young people shifting from car ownership is a long term trend prior to the pandemic

Indeed so, partly linked to increased city living, which in itself is partly due to being close to the jobs located in those cities. But if the jobs are now mostly ‘working from home...

And conversely, old people shifting to car ownership is also a long term trend prior to the pandemic.

Whilst WFH will have an impact on rail use, not all rail use is business related,

Correct. Just over half is commuting, and another 10% is business travel.

Whilst some may give up their cars entirely (although more likely to be young people not starting to own a car)

Some may...

it's now likely that households with 2+ cars would reduce their need so that they could still have one (so retain the vast majority of the benefits of car ownership) but would require some additional rail travel to facilitate doing so.

I don’t see how this follows logically from anything you have said. Now I’ll use some numbers.

It is a *possibility* that some households that have 2+ cars (about 60% of car owning households) may decide to give up one of them and use rail more:

*if* one or more of the household works from home more frequently than previously (say 50% of the group)
*and* continues to do so (50%)
*and* doesn’t want to keep a car for non-work purposes, regardless of cost (optimistically, 50%)
*and* one or more of the other cars isn’t usually available when they do need it for their less frequent trips to work (optimistically, 50%)
*and* a reasonable rail alternative is available for the journey (10%)
*and* rail is better than other available transport options (50%)

...then they would use rail more frequently, perhaps as much as 2-3 times a week, or perhaps once or twice a month.

Factoring all those probabilities leaves you with approximately 0.3% of multiple car owning households making on average, perhaps 1 return trip a week. I would hardly describe that as ‘likely’.

The 0.3% x 1 return rail trip a week would mean an extra 4 million rail trips a year, which you can compare to the 300 million trips a year the railway will lose if 50% of all existing rail commuters and business travellers reduce their rail trips by, on average, 50%.

And that’s why the railway will need to reduce costs.

 

[158756]

Not buying people getting rid of cars. It’s a huge leap once you have got used to the convenience and if you are financially compelled to do it that‘s probably be because you don’t have a job so won’t be commuting by train either.
Look at how difficult it is to get old folk to give up their cars despite free bus passes and dial a ride etc!

And how many people are going to give up their cars after seeing the inconvenience caused to non car owners by the pandemic? It's still going on as well, if you have a car you can go anywhere now, but rail services are still reduced, some so much as to be near unusable, with more cuts still to come in places.

This isn't a short term problem - how is public transport is going to return to the level of convenience offered before the pandemic? Maybe the government doesn't dare close any railway lines, but, returning to the subject of the thread, if revenue doesn't recover quickly there will be no choice but to slash frequencies and hours of service. People who don't own a car will rely on buses for more local trips - how many bus routes will still exist in a year or two? A car will be more essential than ever.

 

[Starmill]

The Volkswagen ID3 58 kWh makes 261 miles per full charge, and the 'long range' 77kWh version 341 miles. Quite how far people are driving, or how anxious they'd have to be about range to find these figures a problem, I don't know. General orders for this vehicle are about to open and VW have a good chance of knocking the Leaf off the top spot. Their objective is to make driving electric mainstream. These are the numbers that are coming for us, and we're still debating here how best to use 40 year old diesel trains on rural routes, or high speed diesel trains on intercity routes. It's crazy.

 

[yorksrob]

The Volkswagen ID3 58 kWh makes 261 miles per full charge, and the 'long range' 77kWh version 341 miles. Quite how far people are driving, or how anxious they'd have to be about range to find these figures a problem, I don't know. General orders for this vehicle are about to open and VW have a good chance of knocking the Leaf off the top spot. Their objective is to make driving electric mainstream. These are the numbers that are coming for us, and we're still debating here how best to use 40 year old diesel trains on rural routes, or high speed diesel trains on intercity routes. It's crazy.

In truth, we've also been calling for rolling electrification since the Modernisation plan, but Governments have gotten in the way !

 

[Meerkat]

The Volkswagen ID3 58 kWh makes 261 miles per full charge, and the 'long range' 77kWh version 341 miles. Quite how far people are driving, or how anxious they'd have to be about range to find these figures a problem, I don't know. General orders for this vehicle are about to open and VW have a good chance of knocking the Leaf off the top spot. Their objective is to make driving electric mainstream. These are the numbers that are coming for us, and we're still debating here how best to use 40 year old diesel trains on rural routes, or high speed diesel trains on intercity routes. It's crazy.

So 261miles when brand new, according to their figures - are they as accurate as mpg figures? How quickly do they degrade?
261 assuming its fully charged when you start.
Is it 261 miles if you have passengers and luggage, it’s hilly, stop start traffic, and you need the heating/air con on full blast?
With petrol you can pop in and top up if, like me, you don’t like having less than a quarter tank. And if it all goes wrong you just get a lift to a garage and get a can of fuel. What do you do if your battery runs out?
If i want to drive to the Midlands and back to watch football where am I going to charge it whilst I am at the football?

 

[Bald Rick]

The Volkswagen ID3 58 kWh makes 261 miles per full charge, and the 'long range' 77kWh version 341 miles. Quite how far people are driving, or how anxious they'd have to be about range to find these figures a problem, I don't know. General orders for this vehicle are about to open and VW have a good chance of knocking the Leaf off the top spot. Their objective is to make driving electric mainstream. These are the numbers that are coming for us, and we're still debating here how best to use 40 year old diesel trains on rural routes, or high speed diesel trains on intercity routes. It's crazy.

Indeed, deliveries start in the next couple of weeks, although I’ve let my reservation pass as at £38k it was too much for me (all the initial blurb suggested it would be under £30k).

So 261miles when brand new, according to their figures - are they as accurate as mpg figures? How quickly do they degrade?
261 assuming its fully charged when you start.
Is it 261 miles if you have passengers and luggage, it’s hilly, stop start traffic, and you need the heating/air con on full blast?
With petrol you can pop in and top up if, like me, you don’t like having less than a quarter tank. And if it all goes wrong you just get a lift to a garage and get a can of fuel. What do you do if your battery runs out?
If i want to drive to the Midlands and back to watch football where am I going to charge it whilst I am at the football?

The 261miles is the WLTP figure, which is a global standard for measuring efficiency in all types of cars; ie it has the same veracity as any published MPG figure. Independent studies of Teslas show that battery degradation is around 10% after 160,000miles. Plenty of reviews showing Teslas batteries lasting 200,000 or 300,000 miles with 80-90% of original life, which realistically is more than a typical car life.

Hills don’t affect an electric car as much as petrol /diesel - they can recover the energy spent going up hill on the downhill stretch, whereas in fuelled cars you may well have to brake and lose that energy to the atmosphere. Stop start more so.

Electric cars will do their very best to stop you running out of juice. If you’d driven one you’d know this. Whilst methods vary between manufacturers, typically you get alerts when it starts to run low, and will offer you directions to the nearest charge points, all the while comparing range left to nearest point. If things get really bad it will start shedding power and ultimately advise to reduce speed to get you there on a limp mode.

When you go to the football in the Midlands, you could park at a location with a charger. There are charging points a short walk from every major club in the Midlands, and WBA.

 

[Starmill]

Running out of juice is exceedingly unlikely in the 58kWh ID3, and unless you're doing it deliberately it would be practically impossible in the 77kWh version. You are no more likely to be stranded then than the normal risk all drivers accept, and which all should be paying for breakdown cover to mitigate against (of course, mechanical failures also become far less likely). As comments here demonstrate, those used to driving cars with liquid fuel haven't quite realised that yet, and as Bald Rick notes, these vehicles are still at a price range that they're the preserve of the upper middle classes. Both will change, and very soon. When that happens, diesel trains will be undercut on cost in almost all circumstances.

 

[Bald Rick]

When that happens, diesel trains will be undercut on cost in almost all circumstances

And environmental credentials.

 

[Meerkat]

When you go to the football in the Midlands, you could park at a location with a charger. There are charging points a short walk from every major club in the Midlands, and WBA.

How many charging points? Enough to cover all the away fan drivers at once? And in the right place and at right cost? What are the realistic charging times - ie what will the throughput be at a charging point compared to a fuel pump?

You are no more likely to be stranded then than the normal risk all drivers accept

Not true - more opportunities to fuel a car than charge one. And if stranded what do you do - find a generator and wait a few hours?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not true - more opportunities to fuel a car than charge one. And if stranded what do you do - find a generator and wait a few hours?

No doubt the likes of the AA will do tows to the nearest charging point.

 

[Meerkat]

No doubt the likes of the AA will do tows to the nearest charging point.

More bother and cost than a can of fuel....
What kind of life is there in a charge? Is it long enough that all normal circumstances of significant non-use are fine - ie how long could you leave it parked up unplugged? I assume there is no issue around Storage (vaguely remember about rechargeable bike lights saying to store charged/uncharged, but can’t remember which!)

 

[Starmill]

Not true - more opportunities to fuel a car than charge one. And if stranded what do you do - find a generator and wait a few hours?

You're not listening though are you? You can't run out of power in a car with 361 miles of range unless you drive that far without stopping for any breaks. Who does that? The rapid charges with batteries of that size need take no longer than normal breaks, and will sustain long-distance driving for longer than one driver can manage in one go. Range itself is no longer an issue. It's merely cost, and attitudes (as this discussion demonstrates - although let's try not to stray off comparison with the rail option).

As for what happens if you did run out, you'd get towed by your breakdown company. Nissan even offer free recovery in case of empty batteries to customers on their service plan.

 

[Meerkat]

You can't run out of power in a car with 361 miles of range unless you drive that far without stopping for any breaks

without finding an available charger you mean. How many are there and can they charge in the time it takes to stop at a petrol station?

 

[Energy]

without finding an available charger you mean. How many are there and can they charge in the time it takes to stop at a petrol station?

Most motorway service stations have them. If you are doing a journey that long you will probably pass a motorway service station, if it is shorter say to the shops then you can charge at home.

 

[Bletchleyite]

without finding an available charger you mean. How many are there and can they charge in the time it takes to stop at a petrol station?

When electric cars truly hit the mainstream, at least 50% of parking bays at service stations and the likes will have fast chargers, possibly even all of them. You'll stop for a walk around and possibly a wee, as you should to maintain attention properly (even if some with strong bladders might manage to drive from London to Durham without stopping, absolutely nobody should actually do this under any circumstances), and while you are you'll get enough of a charge to continue.

 

[HSTEd]

The interesting thing is service stations will end up with absolutely enormous grid connections.

You will be able to see the service stations by the 132kV pylons going to them!

 

[SussexLad]

without finding an available charger you mean. How many are there and can they charge in the time it takes to stop at a petrol station?

As more electric cars goes on the road there will be a higher growth in the amount of charging points.

Further, on a long journey most people stop for a coffee and a toilet break. So yes it would easily charge in a normal pit stop Comparing it to refueling is a bit unfair.

 

[Bald Rick]

How many charging points? Enough to cover all the away fan drivers at once? And in the right place and at right cost? What are the realistic charging times - ie what will the throughput be at a charging point compared to a fuel pump?

Numbers - Well that depends where you are. Not (yet) enough to cover all away drivers at once, but then not all away drivers have an electric car yet, and eve when they do in 15-20 years time not all (or even many) will need a recharge. Right place - within walking distance of a ground, ie in the same sort of distance that you would exclect to park. Charging time - depends how many miles you want to put in. A 100kW charger will get you 80% full in under half an hour, assuming you are not empty. If you are travelling long distance to an away game, or anywhere, most people will stop at a service station or similar, and you will use this time concurrently.

 

[SussexLad]

Hmm. I don’t have grey hair, my preferred my radio station is Radio 1, I never use cash, and it’s back to Ibiza next year or the year after. If that makes me a silver surfer, then guilty as charged!


Indeed so, partly linked to increased city living, which in itself is partly due to being close to the jobs located in those cities. But if the jobs are now mostly ‘working from home...

And conversely, old people shifting to car ownership is also a long term trend prior to the pandemic.



Correct. Just over half is commuting, and another 10% is business travel.


Some may...




I don’t see how this follows logically from anything you have said. Now I’ll use some numbers.

It is a *possibility* that some households that have 2+ cars (about 60% of car owning households) may decide to give up one of them and use rail more:

*if* one or more of the household works from home more frequently than previously (say 50% of the group)
*and* continues to do so (50%)
*and* doesn’t want to keep a car for non-work purposes, regardless of cost (optimistically, 50%)
*and* one or more of the other cars isn’t usually available when they do need it for their less frequent trips to work (optimistically, 50%)
*and* a reasonable rail alternative is available for the journey (10%)
*and* rail is better than other available transport options (50%)

...then they would use rail more frequently, perhaps as much as 2-3 times a week, or perhaps once or twice a month.

Factoring all those probabilities leaves you with approximately 0.3% of multiple car owning households making on average, perhaps 1 return trip a week. I would hardly describe that as ‘likely’.

The 0.3% x 1 return rail trip a week would mean an extra 4 million rail trips a year, which you can compare to the 300 million trips a year the railway will lose if 50% of all existing rail commuters and business travellers reduce their rail trips by, on average, 50%.

And that’s why the railway will need to reduce costs.

Seriously where do I start with this?

Realistically if you can afford 2 cars one of you is going to be a high earner or an office job. Youre looking at 70% of 2 car households having a person that work from home more frequently.

Realsitucally, the job market is going to demand people have work from home available to them when deciding where to work. This is strengthened by everyone realising how great it is.

Most people with 2 cars use both to get to and from work. And the nicest one for leisure use. So getting rid of the runaround won't usually matter.

Finally, if they are getting rid of their car in the first place they're know they will have to get the train instead. Probably walking to the station. Further compounding this is environmental pressures making people more willing to use public transport for the greater good. Also if youre used to a car the bus is infuriating so the train will nearly always be preffered for its speed and lack of stopping at every station.

Summary: yes rail journeys will be lower than 2019 but it isn't going to as dramatic as people are making out. Remember how everyone was moaning no holidays in 2020? And now people are moaning about quarantining after a holiday...

 

[Bald Rick]

The interesting thing is service stations will end up with absolutely enormous grid connections.

You will be able to see the service stations by the 132kV pylons going to them!

I wondered about this. What’s the average Service station car park, 300-500spaces? Typical occupancy in my experience is about 50%, and typical stay length about 30-60 mins. Even if every visitor needed 100kW, say for half an hour, that’s 20MW, but I suspect it would be rather less. Nevertheless, still needs a fat cable.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Aug 2020 ==

Seriously where do I start with this?

Realistically if you can afford 2 cars one of you is going to be a high earner or an office job. Youre looking at 70% of 2 car households having a person that work from home more frequently.

Realsitucally, the job market is going to demand people have work from home available to them when deciding where to work. This is strengthened by everyone realising how great it is.

Most people with 2 cars use both to get to and from work. And the nicest one for leisure use. So getting rid of the runaround won't usually matter.

Finally, if they are getting rid of their car in the first place they're know they will have to get the train instead. Probably walking to the station. Further compounding this is environmental pressures making people more willing to use public transport for the greater good. Also if youre used to a car the bus is infuriating so the train will nearly always be preffered for its speed and lack of stopping at every station.

Summary: yes rail journeys will be lower than 2019 but it isn't going to as dramatic as people are making out. Remember how everyone was moaning no holidays in 2020? And now people are moaning about quarantining after a holiday...

Some big leaps in logic there.

1) not all 2 vehicle households have high earners
2) high earners don’t all work in offices (far from it), and can’t all work from home (see train drivers)
3) If someone ‘gets rid’ of their car, they can only use the train if a) they live near a station b) their workplace is near a station, c) there is a suitable service between the two stations and d) it is better than other non rail alternatives.

Anecdote not being the best evidence, but taking the example of the 10 house nearest me on my road.
9/10 have 2 or more cars. Of the 9 with 2 or more cars:
4 households nobody works
1 household has someone who uses the train to get to work (me)
3 households have one or both adults working (5 adults total). Of these 5, 2 work in where they are at multiple sites per day / week, 2 work in out of town business parks nowhere near a station, and the fifth works in a hospital 20 minutes away by car, or an hour by bus/train/bus. Her husband drives her, or takes a taxi.

Whilst what I describe above is clearly a small sample, My experience suggests that’s this is not unusual.

 

[Meerkat]

Most motorway service stations have them. If you are doing a journey that long you will probably pass a motorway service station, if it is shorter say to the shops then you can charge at home.

Have a handful. They also have huge car parks, and a good number of those cars will fill up on the way out.
Will the number of chargers keep pace if pure electric cars become popular? Is there even enough power out in the sticks where many services are? How long will a charge take - if I was driving to the Midlands I wouldn’t normally stop at the services.
Not everyone can charge at home, street parking will be a big issue, as is the capacity of the grid.
The great thing about cars is their fantastic convenience and flexibility. At the moment we are being asked to pay lots more for less convenience.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Will the number of chargers keep pace if pure electric cars become popular?

Yes.

Is there even enough power out in the sticks where many services are?

I'm sure it will, there are after all 25kV railways in the sticks.

if I was driving to the Midlands I wouldn’t normally stop at the services.

I don't know where you are driving from, but if it's only a couple of hours an electric car should have adequate range, and if it's more than that you really should be taking a break, and that electric cars will enforce those drivers who don't take a break to do so, all the better.

 

[Meerkat]

Yes.



I'm sure it will, there are after all 25kV railways in the sticks.



I don't know where you are driving from, but if it's only a couple of hours an electric car should have adequate range, and if it's more than that you really should be taking a break, and that electric cars will enforce those drivers who don't take a break to do so, all the better.

How can you be confident that the services will invest enough to keep up?
The 25kv feeders are only where the power is though aren’t they.
Two hours up, two hours back. With petrol I can fill up in a couple of minute, if necessary, and park wherever I can find space.

 

[Bald Rick]

How can you be confident that the services will invest enough to keep up?
The 25kv feeders are only where the power is though aren’t they.
Two hours up, two hours back. With petrol I can fill up in a couple of minute, if necessary, and park wherever I can find space.

Firstly, the service stations aren’t investing. The electric car companies and electric car recharging companies are.

Secondly, service stations might start investing, otherwise people with electric cars will just go somewhere else rather than pay for overpriced Coffee etc. Like Tesco https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/environment/2019/12/04/ev-drivers-can-charge-for-free-at-tesco

Two hours up, Two hours back. 250miles tops? That’s within range; would cost about £10 in electricity. With electric, you can fill up while you’re sleeping overnight. Or doing your shopping. Or doing anything else that doesn’t involve driving. Think of the time you’ll save not going to the petrol station!

 

[Meerkat]

Firstly, the service stations aren’t investing. The electric car companies and electric car recharging companies are.

Secondly, service stations might start investing, otherwise people with electric cars will just go somewhere else rather than pay for overpriced Coffee etc. Like Tesco https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/environment/2019/12/04/ev-drivers-can-charge-for-free-at-tesco

Two hours up, Two hours back. 250miles tops? That’s within range; would cost about £10 in electricity. With electric, you can fill up while you’re sleeping overnight. Or doing your shopping. Or doing anything else that doesn’t involve driving. Think of the time you’ll save not going to the petrol station!

Big investment, especially if it needs a bigger supply, and will it keep up - you are relying on it!
Would you risk 250 miles out of a 261 mile quoted range?
You can do it overnight if you have a parking space with a charger.

 

[yorksrob]

I think the self-driving car will be more of an issue, when it turns up.