Next 50 Bids for reopenings

[si404]

The 1/2 tph run by Chiltern is infrequent considering that Stratford is a popular tourists destination, I would expect it to be at least hourly.

Certainly wrt the link to Leamington to connect with the Oxford and London services there.

I'd imagine stock issues at Chiltern mean the Banbury trains that run on the other hours aren't extended north, though capacity Leamington-Banbury or Hatton-Wilnecote might also be an issue. Certainly it's a desire to have it hourly (not until 2032 for West Midlands Rail Executive, so presumably relying on HS2 for some relief of the CML? Or some other upgrade).

Chiltern, as a TOC, have expanded into the tourist day-trippers from London market with Bicester Village, but haven't done much with Stratford (or Warwick, or the Chilterns themselves - just London (from Oxford/Birmingham/etc) and Bicester and a little bit of Oxford with the tourism push).

I think the Stratford-Oxford via Banbury direct trains are gone as routing London trains that way requires fast services that take nearly as long as the semi-fast Chiltern. Post HS2, I can see Chiltern swapping it so that one of the Birminghams (a better northern anchor for a semi-fast) runs semi-fast, with the Stratford running as one of the fasts to Warwickshire.

Oxford would be a change at Banbury/Leamington. Other than students, few tourists would want that link - London is far more important and if you're only going to have 1tph in that direction (even in an optimistic report), then you'd want it to go to London as fast as possible rather than going a long way round via other places that will have frequent service to change onto.

 

[jimm]

I think the Stratford-Oxford via Banbury direct trains are gone as routing London trains that way requires fast services that take nearly as long as the semi-fast Chiltern. Post HS2, I can see Chiltern swapping it so that one of the Birminghams (a better northern anchor for a semi-fast) runs semi-fast, with the Stratford running as one of the fasts to Warwickshire.

Oxford would be a change at Banbury/Leamington. Other than students, few tourists would want that link - London is far more important and if you're only going to have 1tph in that direction (even in an optimistic report), then you'd want it to go to London as fast as possible rather than going a long way round via other places that will have frequent service to change onto.

You don't seem to know much about how the London-Stratford service came into existence. It was the result of extensive market research by Network South East which showed there was considerable potential from linking together London, Oxford and Stratford, due to the number of tourists who visit all three places.

GWR md Mark Hopwood was involved in getting the service running in the first place when he worked for BR and First Group put money into initial studies of the prospects for Stratford-Honeybourne reopening back in 2012.

First Great Western managing director Mark Hopwood last year said: “I was involved in launching the former London-Oxford-Stratford service and am keen, as managing director of First Great Western, to get that service back again.”

Oxford to Stratford-upon-Avon direct line could be restored

DIRECT train services between Oxford and Stratford-upon-Avon could be restored, raising hopes of a major tourism boost to the city’s economy.

www.oxfordmail.co.uk

In the aborted 2012 franchise bidding the Department for Transport entertained the idea of reinstating the service via Oxford, with the invitation to tender including the following (my italics):

4.3.2.2 Franchise Geography

The Franchise Agreement (paragraph 2.2 of Schedule 1.6), sets out the routes over which the Franchisee is permitted to operate. This has been based on those of the current franchise plus two further routes that have been added following receipt and review of suggestions from Bidders prior to the issue of the ITT. The additional routes over which the Franchisee may also operate if they so wish are:

Southampton Central to Poole from May 2017 onwards only; and
Banbury to Stratford upon Avon.

I wasn't joking when I said Chiltern is heartily disliked for its approach to serving Stratford since taking over running the London service, to the extent that in 2018 the Royal Shakespeare Company and Shakespeare Birthplace Trust urged GWR to include a Paddington-Stratford service in its bid for a new franchise.

The Royal Shakespeare Company and the Shakespeare Birthplace Trust have written a joint letter to Great Western Railway Managing Director Mark Hopwood, urging him to improve services between London and Stratford-upon-Avon should GWR retain the Great Western franchise.

In the letter, sent on August 7, the RSC and SBT ask for the introduction of direct services from London Paddington to the Warwickshire town to be included in GWR’s bid to run the franchise beyond April 2020.

They call the existing Stratford-London Marylebone service run by Chiltern Railways “woefully inadequate” for an international tourist destination, with just three direct services on weekdays and a shuttle service to Leamington provided for additional connections.

RSC urges GWR to provide Stratford improvements

With only 6% of 9.8 million tourists per year using rail, calls made for GWR to introduce trains between Stratford-upon-Avon and London Paddington.

www.railmagazine.com

 

[si404]

You don't seem to know much about how the London-Stratford service came into existence.

How it came about was irrelevant - what matters is whether it's proposed again. And it isn't proposed again - at least not via Banbury. What is proposed is to improve the Chiltern service.

It was the result of extensive market research by Network South East which showed there was considerable potential from linking together London, Oxford and Stratford, due to the number of tourists who visit all three places.

Do they do so on the same day? Is there really that little to do that you can spend ~3 hours in each place and be content? And why would you spend 4 hours (and quite a bit of cost) travelling to see two places for such a short period?

But even they do, you'd still want London-Stratford to be fast (especially as time is tight) - ie not go via Oxford en route (even if you provide Oxford services via Honeybourne, or just have people change trains) - the triangle is: London-Stratford, Stratford-Oxford, Stratford-London, or London-Oxford, Oxford-Stratford, Stratford-London. There's no need to re-board the same service...

GWR md Mark Hopwood was involved in getting the service running in the first place when he worked for BR and First Group put money into initial studies of the prospects for Stratford-Honeybourne reopening back in 2012.

Yes, but that's not via Banbury! My point was via Banbury.

That route is better for Stratford-Oxford tourist traffic - you've got Moreton-in-Marsh for a quick (well half-an-hour stepping back a train) photo-op of chocolate box Cotswolds, and Blenheim is by Hanborough.

In the aborted 2012 franchise bidding the Department for Transport entertained the idea of reinstating the service via Oxford, with the invitation to tender including the following (my italics):

Which GWR didn't pick up, suggesting the case for it disappeared with the Bicester-Banbury improvements, making Chiltern the better route to Banbury.

I wasn't joking when I said Chiltern is heartily disliked for its approach to serving Stratford since taking over running the London service

It's also heartily disliked for running short trains on busy routes, but has a through-the-roof satisfaction rating! Both are very valid points, but they don't seem to translate into actual passenger dissatisfaction.

That Chiltern have treated the service poorly isn't a case to reroute it the longer way round via Oxford. It's a case for getting them to treat the service seriously.

to the extent that in 2018 the Royal Shakespeare Company and Shakespeare Birthplace Trust urged GWR to include a Paddington-Stratford service in its bid for a new franchise.

So the direct service is bad and the company isn't that keen on it, so a call for a competitors service is a declaration of a case for a via Oxford service? It's a bit of a non-sequitur.

Sounds like a case to demand (as part of a franchise extension, new franchise agreement or concession) improvements to the Marylebone-Stratford service - which is TfWM's and Network Rail's plan. Oxford-Stratford is a different thing, and the case for it is effectively the case for Honeybourne-Stratford reopening.

 

[daodao]

..... That Chiltern have treated the service poorly isn't a case to reroute it the longer way round via Oxford. It's a case for getting them to treat the service seriously. .....

Exactly. What is needed is a better/faster service via the current route. The current service from Marylebone to Stratford is not significantly faster than the service from Marylebone to Stratford (SMJ) in 1910. For example, in 1910 one could leave Marylebone at 1000 and be in Stratford by 1221 by through carriage. An equivalent through train service today leaves Marylebone at 0943 and reaches Stratford at 1203.

 

[MarkyT]

While holidaymakers are unlikely to construct a single day's itinerary around a visit to both Oxford and Stratford from a London accommodation base, having a through train between these two major tourist locations allows people staying at one to make a day trip to the other easily. Running to London via Didcot and Reading also brings Stratford within a single change and thus day-trip range of a huge area of the south and west of the UK, including the major tourist centres of Bath and Bristol and the easy Heathrow and Gatwick airport connections. Multi-day itineraries staying different nights at different centres including Stratford also become more practical using rail.

 

[MarkyT]

Exactly. What is needed is a better/faster service via the current route. The current service from Marylebone to Stratford is not significantly faster than the service from Marylebone to Stratford (SMJ) in 1910. For example, in 1910 one could leave Marylebone at 1000 and be in Stratford by 1221 by through carriage. An equivalent through train service today leaves Marylebone at 0943 and reaches Stratford at 1203.

Is the journey time particularly important for a predominantly tourist market? Maybe comfort would be better, perhaps a special 'Shakespeare' class/compartment! Attendants in historical costumes, rescripted train announcements...

 

[nanstallon]

I'd be very surprised if a single mile of railway got re-opened. Feasibility studies are a handy, if expensive, way of justifying inaction. If all the money spent on these consultants had been spent on just getting on with it, the Waverley line would have been rebuilt through Hawick down to Carlisle, plus Bere Alston to Okehampton and Exeter - the most obvious cases where the Beeching recommendations went too far.

 

[The Planner]

I'd be very surprised if a single mile of railway got re-opened. Feasibility studies are a handy, if expensive, way of justifying inaction. If all the money spent on these consultants had been spent on just getting on with it, the Waverley line would have been rebuilt through Hawick down to Carlisle, plus Bere Alston to Okehampton and Exeter - the most obvious cases where the Beeching recommendations went too far.

How do you get on with things without feasibility studies? Or is it a case of "just get on with it, doesn't matter if its a waste of money or how we do it", as Waverley to Carlisle would be and discussed ad-infinitum on here?

 

[furnessvale]

How do you get on with things without feasibility studies? Or is it a case of "just get on with it, doesn't matter if its a waste of money or how we do it", as Waverley to Carlisle would be and discussed ad-infinitum on here?

I think the perceived problem is amplified, at least in the mind, when studies are done, then placed on the shelf and further studies are needed to "update" the original ones, ad infinitum.

 

[jimm]

How it came about was irrelevant - what matters is whether it's proposed again. And it isn't proposed again - at least not via Banbury. What is proposed is to improve the Chiltern service.

Do they do so on the same day? Is there really that little to do that you can spend ~3 hours in each place and be content? And why would you spend 4 hours (and quite a bit of cost) travelling to see two places for such a short period?


But even they do, you'd still want London-Stratford to be fast (especially as time is tight) - ie not go via Oxford en route (even if you provide Oxford services via Honeybourne, or just have people change trains) - the triangle is: London-Stratford, Stratford-Oxford, Stratford-London, or London-Oxford, Oxford-Stratford, Stratford-London. There's no need to re-board the same service...
Yes, but that's not via Banbury! My point was via Banbury.

That route is better for Stratford-Oxford tourist traffic - you've got Moreton-in-Marsh for a quick (well half-an-hour stepping back a train) photo-op of chocolate box Cotswolds, and Blenheim is by Hanborough.
Which GWR didn't pick up, suggesting the case for it disappeared with the Bicester-Banbury improvements, making Chiltern the better route to Banbury.
It's also heartily disliked for running short trains on busy routes, but has a through-the-roof satisfaction rating! Both are very valid points, but they don't seem to translate into actual passenger dissatisfaction.

That Chiltern have treated the service poorly isn't a case to reroute it the longer way round via Oxford. It's a case for getting them to treat the service seriously.
So the direct service is bad and the company isn't that keen on it, so a call for a competitors service is a declaration of a case for a via Oxford service? It's a bit of a non-sequitur.

Sounds like a case to demand (as part of a franchise extension, new franchise agreement or concession) improvements to the Marylebone-Stratford service - which is TfWM's and Network Rail's plan. Oxford-Stratford is a different thing, and the case for it is effectively the case for Honeybourne-Stratford reopening.

There hasn't been an opportunity for FGW/GWR to press the case for a Paddington-Oxford-Banbury-Stratford service since 2012, as all the direct awards it has got since then have been to keep the existing GW routes running. It wants to run one irrespective of the situation around the Honeybourne route, which was always viewed as a longer-term prospect and nothing to do with the ability to run a service, tailored for the tourist market, using an existing piece of railway.

The section of the 2012 franchise invitation to tender that I quoted was put in the document because First Group said in the initial consultation period that it wanted to be able to run a Paddington-Oxford-Stratford service. The franchise process was aborted, so the idea went no further - it had nothing to do with the Chiltern Mainline project, which was finished in 2011.

Chiltern does not treat the London-Stratford route seriously and hasn't done it for the past 16 years - as the shenanigans in recent years over through trains versus changing at Leamington amply demonstrate. And if you want London-Stratford to be fast, I suggest you look at which Chiltern trains actually go there - they are semi-fasts with plenty of stops between London and Banbury.

How do you think an IET calling at Reading, Oxford, Banbury and Leamington only (which is the kind of operation GWR presumably has in mind) would get on in terms of end-to-end running time compared with a service that has to be timed for operation by a 75mph-limited Class 165, as these often end up on the Stratford runs, with the 168s concentrated on Oxford and Birmingham duties?

Lots of the visitor traffic to Oxford and Stratford is day trips out from London by people who see nothing else of the UK, nor was the NSE concept that people should do both places in a day. And it was aimed in part at attracting tour groups who go in coaches up the M40, by offering the tour operators the ability to get groups to both places using carefully-timed trains - rail has a pathetically low share of the tourist travel market at Stratford, down in single figures, and Chiltern has made no effort to try to change that.

 

[Ianno87]

I think the perceived problem is amplified, at least in the mind, when studies are done, then placed on the shelf and further studies are needed to "update" the original ones, ad infinitum.

Problem is, for a limited budget, early feasibilities have to be limited in scope and make quite big assumptions.

E.g. £50k might tell you what land might need to be aquired and buildings in the way, but won't tell you every minuatae of the ground conditions or flood alleviation (for example).

 

[si404]

There hasn't been an opportunity for FGW/GWR to press the case for a Paddington-Oxford-Banbury-Stratford service since 2012, as all the direct awards it has got since then have been to keep the existing GW routes running.

...

Chiltern does not treat the London-Stratford route seriously and hasn't done it for the past 16 years - as the shenanigans in recent years over through trains versus changing at Leamington amply demonstrate. And if you want London-Stratford to be fast, I suggest you look at which Chiltern trains actually go there - they are semi-fasts with plenty of stops between London and Banbury.

You can't on the one hand appeal to GWR direct awards blocking improvement (which, despite being direct awards, still had the potential for adding the improvement), yet neglect that Chiltern started running Stratford 2 years into a franchise that still has 17 months left. The Franchise Agreement asks for less than Chiltern is actually giving.

If retendering is the solution for the via Oxford service, and a lack of retendering part of the problem - surely it's the same for the via Bicester service that has had much longer without any contractual changes?

There's also the question of whether there's enough 80xs to supply regular beyond-Banbury trains. As well as track capacity along the route - which seems to be why it takes until 2032 for the West Midlands Rail Executive to see potential for it to increase from 2-hourly to hourly. If it was just a rolling stock issue, it could surely be sorted (in terms of an hourly service between Stratford and Leamington at least) before then - but doesn't appear in the 2025 or 2027 proposed services.

 

[jimm]

You can't on the one hand appeal to GWR direct awards blocking improvement (which, despite being direct awards, still had the potential for adding the improvement), yet neglect that Chiltern started running Stratford 2 years into a franchise that still has 17 months left. The Franchise Agreement asks for less than Chiltern is actually giving.

If retendering is the solution for the via Oxford service, and a lack of retendering part of the problem - surely it's the same for the via Bicester service that has had much longer without any contractual changes?

There's also the question of whether there's enough 80xs to supply regular beyond-Banbury trains. As well as track capacity along the route - which seems to be why it takes until 2032 for the West Midlands Rail Executive to see potential for it to increase from 2-hourly to hourly. If it was just a rolling stock issue, it could surely be sorted (in terms of an hourly service between Stratford and Leamington at least) before then - but doesn't appear in the 2025 or 2027 proposed services.

I am not "appealing" to anything. Simply stating the facts.

GWR would like to run a Paddington-Stratford service squarely targeted at the tourist market - whether or not there is a Chiltern route service from London as well. The way the GW franchise has been operated - ie by direct awards - for the best part of a decade has meant the idea has simply not been given detailed scrutiny by the DfT, but the 2012 invitation to tender clearly indicated that they were open to discussing proposals for such a service.

Could you give us an example of where the DfT has agreed this sort of network extension in a direct award contract, as you are so confident the direct awards have not been an obstacle to progress?

I would be gobsmacked if GWR had contemplated even a two-hourly service (which Chiltern doesn't provide, even though it is being so generous towards the people of Stratford), as my understanding of the basic GWR concept was something that looks a lot like the original NSE service, with a limited number of trains targeting the day out from London and RSC theatre markets, plus getting people from Stratford into London for the day. The tourist market generally involves travel at times of the day when demand for rolling stock is lower (eg out of London at the tail end of the morning peak), so getting hold of an IET or two may be rather more straightforward than you seem to think.

Were a service via a reinstated south to east curve at Honeybourne to become a reality, then there is no doubt GWR (or anyone else running that operating area's trains in future) would be looking to clean up in the Stratford-London travel market more generally, with a Paddington-Stratford end-to-end journey time of about 1hr 45mins via Oxford and the Cotswold Line looking eminently do-able, so well inside even the fastest Chiltern route journeys - which require a change at Leamington that is a grade one turn-off to tour travel operators - and leaving the Chiltern through runs of 2hrs 20mins or more eating dust.

There is, of course, nothing stopping Chiltern upping its game when it comes to Stratford, but they haven't done so in 16 years and would clearly far rather focus their efforts on the West Midlands and Oxford routes and their favoured 'tourist' destination at Bicester Village. Hence GWR's continuing interest in ways to get their trains into Stratford-upon-Avon.

 

[JonathanH]

There is, of course, nothing stopping Chiltern upping its game when it comes to Stratford, but they haven't done so in 16 years and would clearly far rather focus their efforts on the West Midlands and Oxford routes and their favoured 'tourist' destination at Bicester Village. Hence GWR's continuing interest in ways to get their trains into Stratford-upon-Avon.

I think there also needs to be a bit of realism about what Chiltern could ever offer. If they are already running 2tph to Birmingham and 2tph to Oxford that have to be limited stop to support those markets, there isn't really room for a 1tp2h service to Stratford which isn't a stopper over the route of their core market (ie an extension of the Banbury stopper). This is why they went for a short period for connections at Leamington Spa instead of through trains.

Extending GWR trains does seem to make more sense as they can just be extensions of Oxford trains. The allocation of Stratford services to Chiltern made sense until they started running to Oxford (although I concede that the fast trains were cut before Oxford started). However, the reality of the service timing is I think you would still end up with a 80x unit being between Oxford and Stratford in the afternoon peak which is currently available at Paddington.

 

[si404]

There is, of course, nothing stopping Chiltern upping its game when it comes to Stratford

There is, of course, likewise nothing stopping* GWR running these token Stratford via Banbury services you insist it couldn't because it had franchise extensions rather than a new tender. Chiltern, of course, not even having the luxury of the DfT looking at the franchise and then amending and extending the current contract like with GWR - Chiltern having being given 20 years in 2000, that began on 3 March 2002 and will end 11 December 2021...

GWR could just have agree it with the DfT and put it in a glossy brochure like this one from 2015 that talks about all the various benefits of the franchise extension (because the extension had improvements to train service and stock in it due to the service spec having been redone). Or even not do it with a franchise extension - eg Virgin serving Wrexham from 2008 (6 years after the franchise began, 4 years before it was due to end), or Shrewsbury and Blackpool North: which was rejected in July 2013 (the franchise extension having been awarded in March), but approved in November 2013 and started in December 2014 (though this change might have been in the extension, subject to ORR approval, but then that's an example of exactly what you wanted an example of).

Even Chiltern, without any major franchise reviews (extensions/re-tenders), have had the terms of their Stratford services changed a couple of times - and even under COVID-19 are running 9tpd between Leamington and Stratford, when the highest number I could find in their amended franchise agreement is 7 (there's winter and summer numbers, and amendments and it's a big load of legalise). Through services are still the winter 3tpd, but it's COVID so there's not many tourists and the messaging about using trains for that timetable (3rd of July) was still a very cautious one. But surely you like that it's just a token handful of through trains: that's what NSE provided, and what you want from the GWR service!

It seems that your issue is that these Stratford services aren't crack expresses (and they stop even more than normal right now!), and that it's Chiltern - a company you clearly despise for more reasons than that they don't provide a Stratford service that meets your expectations (eg your dig at Bicester Village). I get you - I share your frustration that Chiltern can and should be doing better. But I can see the light at the end of the tunnel - the franchise agreement finally ends next year.

I definitely think there's room for improvement, but the potential is there to improve with the end of that ancient franchise agreement. The new one could have the TOC buy new stock, allowing the semi-fasts not be run by 75mph 30-year old trains, as well as enabling all the Stratford trains to run through to London, as a quick fix. With medium-term improvements/changes (branch to OOC allowing more trains, post-HS2 timetable meaning Birmingham trains don't have to be as fast, signalling/passing loops allowing more trains - including on the Stratford branch itself) to enable fewer stops services to Stratford.

*Other than physical limitations of track and stock, of course. This being the real problem.

---

I'm all for GWR using a reopened Honeybourne-Stratford route if they can make a business case - it's pretty direct from Oxford and there's track capacity between Oxford and the junction for Stratford - unlike via Banbury.

 

[jimm]

There is, of course, likewise nothing stopping* GWR running these token Stratford via Banbury services you insist it couldn't because it had franchise extensions rather than a new tender. Chiltern, of course, not even having the luxury of the DfT looking at the franchise and then amending and extending the current contract like with GWR - Chiltern having being given 20 years in 2000, that began on 3 March 2002 and will end 11 December 2021...

GWR could just have agree it with the DfT and put it in a glossy brochure like this one from 2015 that talks about all the various benefits of the franchise extension (because the extension had improvements to train service and stock in it due to the service spec having been redone). Or even not do it with a franchise extension - eg Virgin serving Wrexham from 2008 (6 years after the franchise began, 4 years before it was due to end), or Shrewsbury and Blackpool North: which was rejected in July 2013 (the franchise extension having been awarded in March), but approved in November 2013 and started in December 2014 (though this change might have been in the extension, subject to ORR approval, but then that's an example of exactly what you wanted an example of).

Even Chiltern, without any major franchise reviews (extensions/re-tenders), have had the terms of their Stratford services changed a couple of times - and even under COVID-19 are running 9tpd between Leamington and Stratford, when the highest number I could find in their amended franchise agreement is 7 (there's winter and summer numbers, and amendments and it's a big load of legalise). Through services are still the winter 3tpd, but it's COVID so there's not many tourists and the messaging about using trains for that timetable (3rd of July) was still a very cautious one. But surely you like that it's just a token handful of through trains: that's what NSE provided, and what you want from the GWR service!

It seems that your issue is that these Stratford services aren't crack expresses (and they stop even more than normal right now!), and that it's Chiltern - a company you clearly despise for more reasons than that they don't provide a Stratford service that meets your expectations (eg your dig at Bicester Village). I get you - I share your frustration that Chiltern can and should be doing better. But I can see the light at the end of the tunnel - the franchise agreement finally ends next year.

I definitely think there's room for improvement, but the potential is there to improve with the end of that ancient franchise agreement. The new one could have the TOC buy new stock, allowing the semi-fasts not be run by 75mph 30-year old trains, as well as enabling all the Stratford trains to run through to London, as a quick fix. With medium-term improvements/changes (branch to OOC allowing more trains, post-HS2 timetable meaning Birmingham trains don't have to be as fast, signalling/passing loops allowing more trains - including on the Stratford branch itself) to enable fewer stops services to Stratford.

*Other than physical limitations of track and stock, of course. This being the real problem.

---

I'm all for GWR using a reopened Honeybourne-Stratford route if they can make a business case - it's pretty direct from Oxford and there's track capacity between Oxford and the junction for Stratford - unlike via Banbury.

In the direct award situation, the Government is contracting the operator to provide more of the same as was running in the last franchise period and then, in the case of the GW area in recent years, taking into account along the way things like the GW electrification, the new trains linked to that and other developments that are in the works, such as Cornish resignalling and the service frequency increases there - it is not to go bolting on major route extensions.

The Virgin extensions you mention were carried out at Virgin's commercial risk (ie outside the DA requirements), were of limited frequency, over short distances, and in essence nothing more than getting a bit more mileage out of trains that were already in the area to serve Wolverhampton, Chester and Preston - which is ever so slightly different from projecting a service running several times a day 50+ miles beyond Oxford to reach Stratford in parallel with existing franchised operations.

What has the virus pandemic got to do with this? I'm not talking specifically about this summer - how could I be when the GW proposal for Stratford has been around for a decade?

For 16 years Chiltern has chopped and changed, hummed and hawed and never made up its mind what it wants to do with Stratford beyond running a service that ticks the boxes of the franchise requirements in some form - because it really isn't that interested and regards serving the town as a distraction from making as much money as it can on its other routes, Bicester Village included - and no dig whatever was intended on my part, as Chiltern cares far more about that location than it ever has about Stratford - lots of signs about Bicester Village in Chinese and Arabic at Marylebone, none in Japanese about Stratford (which is one of their favourite destinations in the UK, along with the Cotswolds, hence the Japanese signs FGW provided a long time ago at Moreton-in-Marsh station).

I don't know why you think a new franchise (or whatever it is that replaces them post the Williams Report) is going to make a great deal of difference, especially because of the virus, which has probably made redundant all the forecasting models that have been relied on for such things until now. Big shake-ups and leaps of faith are not likely to be on the agenda any time soon - and if the hybrid traction system works, then Chiltern's 165s, albeit perhaps uprated to 90mph, could be around for quite some time yet.

PS: there isn't spare track capacity between Oxford and Honeybourne at the moment. The single-line section between Charlbury and Wolvercote North junction at Oxford is a constraint on the existing Cotswold Line weekday timetable, never mind trying to add many more regular services through there. Hence the proposals for further capacity enhancements between Oxford and Worcester, including more redoubling. There may be questions about capacity between Oxford, Banbury and Leamington, but there you are starting with a complete double-track route with some loops along the way.

Extending GWR trains does seem to make more sense as they can just be extensions of Oxford trains. The allocation of Stratford services to Chiltern made sense until they started running to Oxford (although I concede that the fast trains were cut before Oxford started). However, the reality of the service timing is I think you would still end up with a 80x unit being between Oxford and Stratford in the afternoon peak which is currently available at Paddington.

What rolling stock is needed at Paddington in the afternoon peaks may look bit different in the future - and in late afternoon on the old NSE/Thames service the key requirement was a departure from Stratford at 17.00 or thereabouts, so a set on that job would have left Paddington long before the peak. If you want a peak period train to get people home to Stratford from London, in normal times the 18.28 Oxford route fast departure already goes to Banbury.

All hypothetical anyway, but if the Govemernt really is serious about tackling climate change, including through railway reinstatements, then links like Honeybourne to Stratford make all kinds of journeys possible by rail that just aren't do-able at the moment without lengthy detours. A London-Oxford-Stratford service would just be one element of the mix here - local and regional travel would probably generate the bulk of the custom anyway.

 

[si404]

What has the virus pandemic got to do with this?

Because they are running more trains than their franchise agreement requires them to at a time when loads of services are running less frequent with a legitimate reason.

Your argument for GWR to Stratford via Banbury rather than having what replaces Chiltern next year to improve on the current Chiltern offer is about 90% "I hate Chiltern. Chiltern are terrible and do the bare minimum", but - while, I grant you, they haven't done much - this isn't true.

 

[RT4038]

In the direct award situation, the Government is contracting the operator to provide more of the same as was running in the last franchise period and then, in the case of the GW area in recent years, taking into account along the way things like the GW electrification, the new trains linked to that and other developments that are in the works, such as Cornish resignalling and the service frequency increases there - it is not to go bolting on major route extensions.

The Virgin extensions you mention were carried out at Virgin's commercial risk (ie outside the DA requirements), were of limited frequency, over short distances, and in essence nothing more than getting a bit more mileage out of trains that were already in the area to serve Wolverhampton, Chester and Preston - which is ever so slightly different from projecting a service running several times a day 50+ miles beyond Oxford to reach Stratford in parallel with existing franchised operations.

What has the virus pandemic got to do with this? I'm not talking specifically about this summer - how could I be when the GW proposal for Stratford has been around for a decade?

For 16 years Chiltern has chopped and changed, hummed and hawed and never made up its mind what it wants to do with Stratford beyond running a service that ticks the boxes of the franchise requirements in some form - because it really isn't that interested and regards serving the town as a distraction from making as much money as it can on its other routes, Bicester Village included - and no dig whatever was intended on my part, as Chiltern cares far more about that location than it ever has about Stratford - lots of signs about Bicester Village in Chinese and Arabic at Marylebone, none in Japanese about Stratford (which is one of their favourite destinations in the UK, along with the Cotswolds, hence the Japanese signs FGW provided a long time ago at Moreton-in-Marsh station).

I don't know why you think a new franchise (or whatever it is that replaces them post the Williams Report) is going to make a great deal of difference, especially because of the virus, which has probably made redundant all the forecasting models that have been relied on for such things until now. Big shake-ups and leaps of faith are not likely to be on the agenda any time soon - and if the hybrid traction system works, then Chiltern's 165s, albeit perhaps uprated to 90mph, could be around for quite some time yet.

PS: there isn't spare track capacity between Oxford and Honeybourne at the moment. The single-line section between Charlbury and Wolvercote North junction at Oxford is a constraint on the existing Cotswold Line weekday timetable, never mind trying to add many more regular services through there. Hence the proposals for further capacity enhancements between Oxford and Worcester, including more redoubling. There may be questions about capacity between Oxford, Banbury and Leamington, but there you are starting with a complete double-track route with some loops along the way.




What rolling stock is needed at Paddington in the afternoon peaks may look bit different in the future - and in late afternoon on the old NSE/Thames service the key requirement was a departure from Stratford at 17.00 or thereabouts, so a set on that job would have left Paddington long before the peak. If you want a peak period train to get people home to Stratford from London, in normal times the 18.28 Oxford route fast departure already goes to Banbury.

All hypothetical anyway, but if the Govemernt really is serious about tackling climate change, including through railway reinstatements, then links like Honeybourne to Stratford make all kinds of journeys possible by rail that just aren't do-able at the moment without lengthy detours. A London-Oxford-Stratford service would just be one element of the mix here - local and regional travel would probably generate the bulk of the custom anyway.

Strange that through train service between Stratford upon Avon and London has always been pretty minimal, so I guess that the various railway companies over the decades have not seen the tourist market (which I guess is a train in the morning from London to Stratford and a return in the early evening) as particularly worthwhile, compared to bread and butter business all day between London and Birmingham. There was some mention in an earlier post of a through carriage from Marylebone to Stratford via Woodford in 1910, but that didn't last long.
Maybe the demographic and nature of the London-Stratford tourist market better suits road motor coaches than a train?

 

[Mikey C]

Strange that through train service between Stratford upon Avon and London has always been pretty minimal, so I guess that the various railway companies over the decades have not seen the tourist market (which I guess is a train in the morning from London to Stratford and a return in the early evening) as particularly worthwhile, compared to bread and butter business all day between London and Birmingham. There was some mention in an earlier post of a through carriage from Marylebone to Stratford via Woodford in 1910, but that didn't last long.
Maybe the demographic and nature of the London-Stratford tourist market better suits road motor coaches than a train?

I think so as well. A coach holiday can combine Stratford with the Cotswold villages as well.

 

[Starmill]

Chiltern did recently add one extra service from Stratford-upon-Avon at 1618. Unfortunately, it goes to Hatton only. It kind of works in theory because there's an express London Marylebone service calling at Hatton just after it arrives, but it's not what you might call attractive to the tourist market.

 

[The Planner]

Chiltern did recently add one extra service from Stratford-upon-Avon at 1618. Unfortunately, it goes to Hatton only. It kind of works in theory because there's an express London Marylebone service calling at Hatton just after it arrives, but it's not what you might call attractive to the tourist market.

Difficult to make work by extending it to Leamington for a cross platform connection and then getting it back to Stratford to work the 1736 to Marylebone.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Once HS2 is here, how is a direct London-Stratford train going to compare with HS2 to Birmingham and a local train to Stratford from there - which would roughly be a total journey time of about 90-95 minutes plus the connection time in Birmingham.

 

[si404]

I think so as well. A coach holiday can combine Stratford with the Cotswold villages as well.

Which is why, if there's to be a tourist-based rail link via Oxford, it's better off going via the Cotswolds line and the Honeybourne-Stratford line bidding to be reopened.

 

[The Planner]

Once HS2 is here, how is a direct London-Stratford train going to compare with HS2 to Birmingham and a local train to Stratford from there - which would roughly be a total journey time of about 90-95 minutes plus the connection time in Birmingham.

The Stratford via Dorrdge trains normally take about 40 minutes. Factor in a minimum 12-15 minute connection from Curzon St to Moor St and the 50 minute Euston to Curzon St then you are at 105 minutes. Without knowing what route you are expecting the direct Stratford train to take and its calling pattern it isn't easy to put a number on it. I would expect HS2 to be 20 or so minutes quicker than a Chiltern. Depends on whether people would prefer that 20 minutes compared to the change.

 

[Bald Rick]

Which is why, if there's to be a tourist-based rail link via Oxford, it's better off going via the Cotswolds line and the Honeybourne-Stratford line bidding to be reopened.

Not if it’s going to cost £300-£400m to build it!

 

[si404]

Not if it’s going to cost £300-£400m to build it!

Very true!

The obvious cost saving is to terminate at the racecourse, rather than running through to the existing station.

But I'm not sure there's any reason why a Stratford-London tourist service needs to go via Oxford - it made sense in NSE days because the Banbury-Princes Risborough line was terrible, but that's changed.

 

[MP33]

With reconnecting Maldon, the other branch line may be a better option. The South Wodham Ferrers-Maldon line closed to passengers in the 1930's and to freight in the 1950's. Maldon West station is now in a residential area, whilst Maldon East is someway outside of town. The route of the Witham - Maldon line may have few obstructions, however there are two preserved wooden viaducts which would be unsuitable to be brought back into use. Witham station would have capacity issues as the former Maldon platform is still in use for mainline services. South Woodham Ferrers has a disused second platform or the remains of one.

Mention was made of the Bishops Stortford -Braintree line and getting across the M11. There would be no need, any re-instatement would go to Stansted Airport which did not exist when the line closed. A bigger problem would be re building the demolished viaduct at Rayne.

 

[Bald Rick]

Mention was made of the Bishops Stortford -Braintree line and getting across the M11. There would be no need, any re-instatement would go to Stansted Airport which did not exist when the line closed. A bigger problem would be re building the demolished viaduct at Rayne.

An even bigger problem is the B1256 at Gt Dunmow

 

[Alfie1014]

With reconnecting Maldon, the other branch line may be a better option. The South Wodham Ferrers-Maldon line closed to passengers in the 1930's and to freight in the 1950's. Maldon West station is now in a residential area, whilst Maldon East is someway outside of town. The route of the Witham - Maldon line may have few obstructions, however there are two preserved wooden viaducts which would be unsuitable to be brought back into use. Witham station would have capacity issues as the former Maldon platform is still in use for mainline services. South Woodham Ferrers has a disused second platform or the remains of one.

I had a look on the ground of the Maldon East branch recently when I was in the area. The existing station building at Maldon East whilst in good condition (in private hands) is totally surrounded by development (some being built at present) and roads. I think the best you could hope for is a station on the far side of the by-pass roundabout with a (footbridge) link to Tesco’s car park. This would mean the station would be away from most of the housing in the town and still a fair walk to the town centre. The bigger problem is at Witham, where once you reach the town the trackbed is built over to the extent that demolition would be required (including some of the maltings). Once in the station the up loop platform is used especially in the peaks (though this might reduce after Beaulieu Station is built north of Chelmsford), also its a useful bolt hole to recess both freight and passenger services. Suggestions have included building a new alignment along the A12 and bringing the line in further out towards Kelvedon but this would add considerably to the cost. All of which I fear makes the practicality and financial case for reopening extremely unlikely in my mind. Can I claim my consultancy fees from DfT now please!

 

[joebassman]

If you look on the list of 50 the Maldon branch isn't on there anyway. So I guess if a bid was submitted as Essex live suggested was happening, it's been rejected anyway.