Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[Bald Rick]

Ah, that could well be accurate.

Even more accurate would be “everyone on holiday who wanted to return has now been returned”

 

[C J Snarzell]

Me and my dad had a chat about this over the telephone yesterday.

Chris Whitty stated on Wednesday's Downing Street press conference that the social distancing measures may have to remain in place for months to come. There are several problems with this -

Schools - how do you keep very young children apart in the a classroom or nursery environment? One of the casualties of the lockdown has been that children are not being educated and to keep them away from a learning environment for so long would be ridiculous. Schools themselves don't have the resources or staff to segregate children and keep limited numbers in one classroom and then keep groups of children separate for mealtimes and playground periods. Then there is the massive issue of parents collecting children from school - how would that be managed?

Shops/Supermarkets - this is a common one we are experiencing at present. My dad stated the weather has been on our side in the last few weeks, but imagine having to queue up outside an Aldi store in pouring rain or snow in the depths of Winter? People might actually get pneumonia if social distance continued for the rest of the year just to stand outside a supermarket!!!

Public Transport - buses & trains are the biggest obstacle as taxi's and planes are pre-bookable. At the moment, some seating areas are being taped off and people are being kept apart to enforce safe distances. When lockdown measures are relaxed, bus & train companies will have a nightmare on their hands if they are expected to maintain social distancing.

Barbers & Hairdressers - the Daily Express have stated that scientists are struggling to find a safe way for hair stylists to do their job safely around a client. Does Chris Whitty think most of us are going to wait until 2021 before we get a hair cut?

Pubs / Restaurants - would all pubs need to have permanent door staff to monitor who comes & and goes from a licenced premises just to keep a limited number of customers and turn others away if they reach a maximum capacity. Table reservations would have to be implemented and standing at a bar would be a no-no if social distancing continues.

Public venues & celebrations - football games, sporting events, music concerts, church services, weddings, work conferences - would Chris Whitty suggest we cancel anything like this until at least the beginning of next year 2021?

Like another member has said - the medical people say all sorts to protect our health. Don't drink, don't smoke, don't eat fatty foods, don't do too much exercise, don't not exercise, don't watch too much telly, don't sit in the sun too long, don't work more than 40 hours a week........

My point here is that everyday, in normal circumstances we are advised what is best for our health but in realistic circumstances can we adhere to every single thing we are told by doctors & scientists?

CJ

 

[Meerkat]

The only reason I can think for the lack of screening at the airports is not wanting to admit that there aren’t enough test kits, and the problem of what to do if large numbers of passengers fail

 

[Meerkat]

Me and my dad had a chat about this over the telephone yesterday.

Chris Whitty stated on Wednesday's Downing Street press conference that the social distancing measures may have to remain in place for months to come. There are several problems with this -

Schools - how do you keep very young children apart in the a classroom or nursery environment? One of the casualties of the lockdown has been that children are not being educated and to keep them away from a learning environment for so long would be ridiculous. Schools themselves don't have the resources or staff to segregate children and keep limited numbers in one classroom and then keep groups of children separate for mealtimes and playground periods. Then there is the massive issue of parents collecting children from school - how would that be managed?

Shops/Supermarkets - this is a common one we are experiencing at present. My dad stated the weather has been on our side in the last few weeks, but imagine having to queue up outside an Aldi store in pouring rain or snow in the depths of Winter? People might actually get pneumonia if social distance continued for the rest of the year just to stand outside a supermarket!!!

Public Transport - buses & trains are the biggest obstacle as taxi's and planes are pre-bookable. At the moment, some seating areas are being taped off and people are being kept apart to enforce safe distances. When lockdown measures are relaxed, bus & train companies will have a nightmare on their hands if they are expected to maintain social distancing.

Barbers & Hairdressers - the Daily Express have stated that scientists are struggling to find a safe way for hair stylists to do their job safely around a client. Does Chris Whitty think most of us are going to wait until 2021 before we get a hair cut?

Pubs / Restaurants - would all pubs need to have permanent door staff to monitor who comes & and goes from a licenced premises just to keep a limited number of customers and turn others away if they reach a maximum capacity. Table reservations would have to be implemented and standing at a bar would be a no-no if social distancing continues.

Public venues & celebrations - football games, sporting events, music concerts, church services, weddings, work conferences - would Chris Whitty suggest we cancel anything like this until at least the beginning of next year 2021?

Like another member has said - the medical people say all sorts to protect our health. Don't drink, don't smoke, don't eat fatty foods, don't do too much exercise, don't not exercise, don't watch too much telly, don't sit in the sun too long, don't work more than 40 hours a week........

My point here is that everyday, in normal circumstances we are advised what is best for our health but in realistic circumstances can we adhere to every single thing we are told by doctors & scientists?

CJ

I think in the end it will be “every little helps”, ban the avoidable high risks and just mitigate the rest the best we can. If we get the numbers infected down fast enough then it becomes less of an issue. Then tracing might be important, easy in schools but maybe you might have to leave your name and number at the hairdresser so they have a record.

 

[Meerkat]

Could pubs set up a “take a ticket” system, either physically or email/text/whatever - then if I got ill I could tell the tracer what number I was at the pub and they could put a warning out for all people with numbers around that?
If it was a pub based system that had your phone number, and you checked in/out, the pub could text all those in the timeframe I was in there.

Or it could be premises have QRcodes on the doors which would help finesse an NHS app.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Schools - how do you keep very young children apart in the a classroom or nursery environment? One of the casualties of the lockdown has been that children are not being educated and to keep them away from a learning environment for so long would be ridiculous. Schools themselves don't have the resources or staff to segregate children and keep limited numbers in one classroom and then keep groups of children separate for mealtimes and playground periods. Then there is the massive issue of parents collecting children from school - how would that be managed?

This is difficult but a way will need to be found, either by getting more premises to expand space (e.g. Portakabins) or by having part-time attendance. It might be impossible for very small kids, but for older ones something can probably be done to make it workable. Breaktimes would have to be dispensed with, however. Perhaps as an alternative some kind of distanced PE class could be done each day? The bootcamp I go to had already adapted their classes to be done with everyone 2m apart at all times...just in time for them to have to move online.

No solution will be perfect, which could itself be a challenge as unions are already flexing their muscles looking for perfection. I would warn any Unions in any industry that this is a really, really bad idea, because a Tory Government would love to use this as an excuse to legislate banning strikes or some other serious curtailment of Union power, and you really don't want that. Be reasonable, don't be Arthur Scargill or somesuch. We realise you want to minimise risk, but zeroing it is not feasible, and if a teacher (or other person who can't home work) wants zero-risk they are going to have to consider changing jobs at least in the short term to one allowing home-working.

Some parents will still withhold their kids, and any attempt at enforcement on that will be a non-starter, so numbers will be down anyway which will help.

Shops/Supermarkets - this is a common one we are experiencing at present. My dad stated the weather has been on our side in the last few weeks, but imagine having to queue up outside an Aldi store in pouring rain or snow in the depths of Winter? People might actually get pneumonia if social distance continued for the rest of the year just to stand outside a supermarket!!!

There are ways round this such as booking of slots to shop. However, I can't help but think "diddums" and "first world problems". If it's raining, take an umbrella or wear a raincoat. If it's cold, wear layers. If you don't like breathing in cold air, wear a face mask (this might end up required anyway). This complaint is a late-20th/21st century one. Go back 50 years and "there's no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes" certainly applied. In other words, yes, it's grim, but stop moaning!

Obviously "be nice to people" applies here - if you see someone really struggling, e.g. elderly, let them in front. A wartime "others before yourself" mentality is required. I bet you'll see more of this at Aldi/Lidl etc - because those stores don't have basket tills, it is usual to let someone with only a few items go in front in the queue at the checkout (there's one that I often pop into for a couple of items, and this happens more than 90% of the time), so this easily translates to outside.

Public Transport - buses & trains are the biggest obstacle as taxi's and planes are pre-bookable. At the moment, some seating areas are being taped off and people are being kept apart to enforce safe distances. When lockdown measures are relaxed, bus & train companies will have a nightmare on their hands if they are expected to maintain social distancing.

Compulsory reservations, with priority to season ticket holders and some seats blocked, are likely to be the way here. Most trains already have numbered seats (and it's not hard to stick numbers on the few that don't) and we already have the NRS. This is really not at all difficult to do, though it is a mindset change, as many things will be. It might also be a useful experiment. Demand will be low anyway (particularly if tax is fiddled with to keep fuel prices low which would be a very good idea as at the moment driving is to be encouraged if possible) so I doubt all that many would end up turned away.

With end doored stock you could perhaps improve things further by having one door to board and one to alight - India already has this rule technically though it isn't really complied with.

Barbers & Hairdressers - the Daily Express have stated that scientists are struggling to find a safe way for hair stylists to do their job safely around a client. Does Chris Whitty think most of us are going to wait until 2021 before we get a hair cut?

Get a pair of clippers online (might be difficult at the moment but stocks will rebuild) and do an "all over" clipper cut of your preferred length either on yourself or if you live with others do each other's. That deals with what you need. You don't need your hair styling, you just need it cut. Though turban-wearing Sikhs may disagree

Pubs / Restaurants - would all pubs need to have permanent dooor staff to monitor who comes & and goes from a licenced premises just to keep a limited number of customers and turn others away if they reach a maximum capacity. Table reservations would have to be implemented and standing at a bar would be a no-no if social distancing continues.

Yes, I'd be inclined to say reservation-only and table-service-only in pubs, bars and restaurants with tables spaced out. There are a lot of people needing jobs at the moment so it won't be hard to get additional doormen. Nightclubs aren't going to work, though.

Public venues & celebrations - football games, sporting events, music concerts, church services, weddings, work conferences - would Chris Whitty suggest we cancel anything like this until at least the beginning of next year 2021?

I think that would be prudent, yes. I was invited to a wedding in May and they've postponed to next year.

Like another member has said - the medical people say all sorts to protect our health. Don't drink, don't smoke, don't eat fatty foods, don't do too much exercise, don't not exercise, don't watch too much telly, don't sit in the sun too long, don't work more than 40 hours a week........

My point here is that everyday, in normal circumstances we are advised what is best for our health but in realistic circumstances can we adhere to every single thing we are told by doctors & scientists?

Probably not, as there are other aspects in play such as economics, it's all a case of us all doing our best within what is a very new situation for everyone. No solution will be perfect, and striving for perfection will just cause unnecessary stress. Just take reputable advice, make your best shot and be nice to others.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Could pubs set up a “take a ticket” system, either physically or email/text/whatever - then if I got ill I could tell the tracer what number I was at the pub and they could put a warning out for all people with numbers around that?
If it was a pub based system that had your phone number, and you checked in/out, the pub could text all those in the timeframe I was in there.

Or it could be premises have QRcodes on the doors which would help finesse an NHS app.

QR codes might not be a bad plan. China is doing that.

As an alternative, some bars/clubs scan everyone's ID so they can use it against the CCTV if there is crime. I'm no fan of this in normal circumstances as I find it a bit "guilty until proven innocent", but it would work here.

I do however think reservation is the way. It doesn't mean you need to book 3 days beforehand, if there's capacity you could ring up just before you go there, just like with any restaurant. (This is something people forget when it comes to compulsory reservations on trains, too - there is this image that it means "well in advance" but in any country that does operate that on the railway you can still rock up and buy a ticket on spec just before departure, it's just that they aren't sold in infinite numbers like they are here).

 

[C J Snarzell]

The problem with any licenced venue is of course alcohol!!!!

People who have had a few sherberts will let their guards down and breach social distancing if it is still place. At the moment alcohol consumption is confined to the safe environment of the home but the problem with any sort of drinking is the fact it affects behaviour & rational and like minded people may sudden decide to ignore any safe guidance once they been lubricated enough in a public place.

Again this is the same problem with sporting events (football games), weddings, concerts, where alcohol is readily available.

CJ

 

[Meerkat]

Re schools
if the kids wash their hands on the way in and way out how dangerous are they as spreaders?
It sounds like they rarely get ill, so the risk is that they are shedding virus whilst asymptomatic. Not sure this has even been proved as possible, let alone likely. If it’s a low risk then hand washing and keeping them away from the highest risk people should keep risk levels low enough to be less Han the significant gains from getting them back in school.
I am not even sure they need social distancing in school - just reduced contact, no face touching, and regular handwashing.

 

[Meerkat]

The problem with any licenced venue is of course alcohol!!!!

People who have had a few sherberts will let their guards down and breach social distancing if it is still place. At the moment alcohol consumption is confined to the safe environment of the home but the problem with any sort of drinking is the fact it affects behaviour & rational and like minded people may sudden decide to ignore any safe guidance once they been lubricated enough in a public place.

Again this is the same problem with sporting events (football games), weddings, concerts, where alcohol is readily available.

CJ

Then have sittings. Get coloured rubber bands like the swimming pools used to have!!

 

[Bletchleyite]

The problem with any licenced venue is of course alcohol!!!!

People who have had a few sherberts will let their guards down and breach social distancing if it is still place. At the moment alcohol consumption is confined to the safe environment of the home but the problem with any sort of drinking is the fact it affects behaviour & rational and like minded people may sudden decide to ignore any safe guidance once they been lubricated enough in a public place.

That could maybe be dealt with by limiting the length of a reservation to maybe two hours, on the pretext of ensuring availability? Again you'd need enough security staff, though, and they'd need PPE. OK, you can get off your head on spirits in that time but you'd struggle with beer, so maybe no spirits?

Another option might be "drinks only with food". A lot of pubs do food these days and that would control how often people will go. A bit like 'Spoons' rule with regard to children.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Then have sittings. Get coloured rubber bands like the swimming pools used to have!!

Great minds, or fools, which is it?

 

[Meerkat]

That could maybe be dealt with by limiting the length of a reservation to maybe two hours, on the pretext of ensuring availability? Again you'd need enough security staff, though, and they'd need PPE. OK, you can get off your head on spirits in that time but you'd struggle with beer, so maybe no spirits?

One hour 45 min sessions, then every body out whilst everything is cleaned.

 

[Bletchleyite]

One hour 45 min sessions, then every body out whilst everything is cleaned.

That could work.

 

[Meerkat]

That could work.

Would need some kind of preorder or at least pre pouring after getting a list from the queue - to prevent a bar scrum or it taking ages.
And no cash

 

[Bletchleyite]

Would need some kind of preorder or at least pre pouring after getting a list from the queue - to prevent a bar scrum or it taking ages.
And no cash

Table service.

 

[yorksrob]

Just separate the tables and allow no standing drinking.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Just separate the tables and allow no standing drinking.

Table service could be manageable - Weatherspoons do a phone app service were staff bring food & drink to the table. Unfortunately, you would still need door staff on duty to determine numbers coming in and ensure customers stick to the 'table' rules. I've used Weatherspoons as an example because the one near from where I'm from gets busy & all tables are usually taken on a typical evening with many people stood congregating with their drinks and propping up the bar.

CJ

 

[yorksrob]

Table service could be manageable - Weatherspoons do a phone app service were staff bring food & drink to the table. Unfortunately, you would still need door staff on duty to determine numbers coming in and ensure customers stick to the 'table' rules. I've used Weatherspoons as an example because the one near from where I'm from gets busy & all tables are usually taken on a typical evening with many people stood congregating with their drinks and propping up the bar.

CJ

I think such a thing might be easier to manage in a country pub than a city centre drinking den.

That said, city drinking dens are more likely to have bouncers and apps, so they cancel eachother out to an extent.

 

[swissrailpassion]

Any loosening of restrictions is going to cause more deaths. The lockdown has worked in flattening the curve The first huge spike in cases is from late February and early March when football and other sports were still in business. We can see the flattening begins with the voluntary lockdowns before the 23rd.
In Bergamo one football match played at Milan resulted in catastrophe.
That is why we have to be careful to lift measures very gradually. But the endless impatience on the BBC and in newspapers may fracture the unity of the public (a wonderful thing after 4 years of divisive Brexit debate) and encourage politicians to loosen the restrictions too quickly.
A tiny step would be to open garden centres with outdoor sales areas as this is peak season for growers.

We now have enough ICU capacity to deal with a short spike but the way forward has to include large scale testing and contact tracing like Germany etc.

 

[JonathanH]

There are two problems with reopening pubs and restaurants even with social distancing.

Firstly they are going to be uneconomic if they are not able to be packed out - are people prepared to pay double for more distance in the establishment.

Secondly their kitchens probably aren't set up for distancing between staff.

In terms of table staff, I think food is going to have to be taken to a point for collection rather than the table.

Let's not forget that most fast food takeaways shut, in part because they can't keep their kitchen staff sufficiently distanced.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Any loosening of restrictions is going to cause more deaths. The lockdown has worked in flattening the curve The first huge spike in cases is from late February and early March when football and other sports were still in business. We can see the flattening begins with the voluntary lockdowns before the 23rd.
In Bergamo one football match played at Milan resulted in catastrophe.
That is why we have to be careful to lift measures very gradually. But the endless impatience on the BBC and in newspapers may fracture the unity of the public (a wonderful thing after 4 years of divisive Brexit debate) and encourage politicians to loosen the restrictions too quickly.
A tiny step would be to open garden centres with outdoor sales areas as this is peak season for growers.

We now have enough ICU capacity to deal with a short spike but the way forward has to include large scale testing and contact tracing like Germany etc.

I cannot see any large football games taking place for the rest of 2020. Liverpool played one of the Spanish teams at Anfield on the 11th March and there are now serious concerns raised by the Liverpool Mayor who now wants a full enquiry into why it went ahead. Liverpool in particular is a city that has been badly hit by the coronavirus. Again the Cheltenham Races were another event that should never have gone ahead. I believe if we do have any chance of over coming the worst of this virus, we have to realistic and decide that we cannot let big events go ahead anytime soon. The London Marathon has been re-scheduled for October but in all honesty should it not be completely abandoned until the next one in April 2021?

CJ

 

[Meerkat]

Firstly they are going to be uneconomic if they are not able to be packed out - are people prepared to pay double for more distance in the establishment.

I would pay more to be further away from other people anyway, but then I am just a grump!
it could be economic if it means demand is spread throughout the day so there are fewer tables but they are always full

 

[Bletchleyite]

I cannot see any large football games taking place for the rest of 2020. Liverpool played one of the Spanish teams at Anfield on the 11th March and there are now serious concerns raised by the Liverpool Mayor who now wants a full enquiry into why it went ahead. Liverpool in particular is a city that has been badly hit by the coronavirus. Again the Cheltenham Races were another event that should never have gone ahead. I believe if we do have any chance of over coming the worst of this virus, we have to realistic and decide that we cannot let big events go ahead anytime soon. The London Marathon has been re-scheduled for October but in all honesty should it not be completely abandoned until the next one in April 2021?

I can see us ending up in a situation where gatherings under 500 people are allowed, which would allow an "elites only" version to be run (this has already been mooted), and perhaps other smaller races like those organised by running clubs. The rest could I guess be automatically deferred to next year.

 

[bramling]

I would pay more to be further away from other people anyway, but then I am just a grump!

+1!

 

[MDB1images]

The difference is that (if you believe the Government) everyone who needs to be back home now is.

Still a few repatriation flights arriving as of Friday as had a few on board who had just been flown back from Pakistan.

 

[david1212]

Back in the first days of March when the elderly and medically venerable were recommended to stay indoors for 12 weeks followed by closure of schools most shops and pubs etc I think many just presumed the exit after if not the flick of a switch back to as last year would be rapid over say a month so by the end of June. Hence why then events for March - May / June were rescheduled for July - October.

When announced furlough for workers was initially 12 weeks then extended to the end of June. Logically businesses including leisure, travel and holiday planned for at least ' business near normal ' for the start of July if not sooner.

Now there is the realisation that the exit is going to be gradual. Core will be the rise in hospital admissions at each step. For events and gatherings as well as pubs, cinemas etc the density of people will be at least as important as the total number. However covering this with one or very few blanket regulations will be difficult so inevitably they will err on the side of caution. I am expecting many rescheduled events to get cancelled.

For the holiday trade too I can not see full coaches. If say a 50% mix of couples and individuals on a 53 seat coach how many can be carried maintaining distancing. If only every other row staggered across the aisle maybe 20 ? This would not be viable financially.

 

[greyman42]

I agree. I cannot understand why the CEO's of airlines are so bullish about people wanting to return to international flights so soon. It's the perfect way to spread the virus around the world again.

When people are able to return to what they were doing before the virus, they will do so.

 

[underbank]

I can see us ending up in a situation where gatherings under 500 people are allowed, which would allow an "elites only" version to be run (this has already been mooted), and perhaps other smaller races like those organised by running clubs. The rest could I guess be automatically deferred to next year.

Those "elites" won't be interested unless they can congregate together, i.e. in the hospitality suites. That's the whole point of hospitality - it's to see and be seen, which is more important for many that the sports event itself, as can be seen by the sheer number of empty spaces after the half time/interval where people just havn't gone back out to their seats.

I can't imagine the 500 "elites" will be impressed at being spaced around the stadium and not being allowed into the hospitality areas for their meals/drinks etc.

 

[jagardner1984]

This would not be viable financially.

this is at the heart of all the discussions on any of the large events / tourism questions. Whilst you could probably configure theatres, cinemas etc to have 6 seats taken off sale around each one sold, the economics are so fragile anyway that it would almost certainly not be worthwhile. There is the additional question as to whether people will want to sit in close proximity to others any time soon, or sleep in the bed and breakfast in the Lake District which realistically cannot be sterilised to that extent daily. In a sense, whilst they are obviously not making money, the situation where the government pays for most things sort of suits a lot of that sector, as they don’t have to Make wild adaptations to their operations to accommodate this. I would imagine the argument is slightly different in large sporting events, since so much of the financial imperative is from the TV rights, so even if all 30-40 players were to emerge from their own seperate trailers parked outside, Be tested on the way in and out, Isolating in the days before and after a game, there is a clear incentive to get those games played. The numbers involved for whom precautions would need to be taken are still comparatively tiny.

I imagine the nervousness of government on the schools question is that, by whatever bit of bad luck or coincidence, those children, teachers, parents being together once more WILL create additional infection and additional deaths. That’s a really tough sell at the ballot box next time round, and why I think there will need to be some very straight talking as to what’s involved and how hard everyone is working to prevent those infections, whilst acknowledging some are inevitable. Whatever progress is made on vaccines, it won’t be possible or plausible to maintain this level of isolation / lack of proper education for months / years to come.