Predictions for the next decade

[devonexpress]

So with the start of the next decade I thought it would be a good time to predict the future of bus services across the UK.

I'm going to start off with a theory, or maybe you'd call it a hope for the South Coast (Berkshire, Hampshire etc)

Reading buses will continue to expand its services taking on more work, but eventually it will lead to its downfall, with the company being sold off the core Reading area services being taken over by Stagecoach, with other areas, such as Newbury & District being bought by Go-Ahead.

 

[317 forever]

Abellio will buy Tower Transit (LI) and Stagecoach Tower Transit (X). RATP will buy Blazefield (including Rosso) from Transdev.

Stagecoach will have proportionately more electric buses than any other operator outside London.

Only Blackpool, Lothian, Nottingham and Reading will remain Municipal companies. Other sell-outs will be as follows:

Cardiff to Comfort DelGro
Halton to Rotala
Ipswich to Go-Ahead
Newport to Arriva
Warrington to CentreBus

 

[Jordan Adam]

Lothian Buses will buy out British Airways, introduce a new service using clapped out Geminis between Edinburgh and Glasgow operating every 3 minutes, and then Richard Hall will overthrow Lizzy in Buckingham Palace.

Spoiler

Ohh wait it's not April the 1st.

Jokes aside i suspect FirstBus will continue to somehow survive while most of it's OpCo's suffering from unrealistic ambitions and budgets set by those up top, Stagecoach will introduce it's rancid new livery and probably not do much more in terms of expansion, Arriva will continue being awful, NX will hope to expand but probably not - but again like Stagecoach remain pretty stable, and Diamond will have some more thermal incidents.

 

[overthewater]

I think First will live to fight another day, its the company you hate to love, Its a real undog story,

I thought Stagecoach were more interested in Halton? Maybe Diamond will get bored and just sell off its operations to Go-Ahead?

 

[CM]

Lothian will lose it's battle in West Lothian to First and the confidence gained by First in chasing them out will lead to a takeover of all of Lothian by First Group......just to wind up the fanboys.

 

[cnjb8]

I can see Rotala, Stagecoach and GoAhead expanding while First tries to consolidate their operations.
In my area, I can see a fully biogas fleet for NCT. While Trents fares will be in the millions , Arriva will be awful as said above while Stagecoach will expand a large amount in this area

 

[devonexpress]

I can see Rotala, Stagecoach and GoAhead expanding while First tries to consolidate their operations.
In my area, I can see a fully biogas fleet for NCT. While Trents fares will be in the millions , Arriva will be awful as said above while Stagecoach will expand a large amount in this area

I agree I can see First closing down or selling off some areas, bringing or taking some of the newer buses Ex olympic E400s etc, to standardise their operations in more profitable areas.

 

[scosutsut]

Post Brexit Euro 6 will be superceded by UK 1 which will mandate that no bus will be allowed into service unless the exhaust fumes kill at least sixty five poor people per passenger mile travelled.

Fleets around the country will rush to acquire older stock, raiding museums, scrapyards and even Africa.

First and Arriva will be completely unaffected and will post bumper profits.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I could see an abolition of Driver CPC (it's pointless as implemented and benefits nobody other than the companies that deliver it), and could also see us ending up allowing UK hours for all UK domestic work (so meaning an end to the nonsensical "connecting service" dodge).

 

[Flange Squeal]

Stagecoach taking over Arriva’s operations around Guildford and Woking, be it through acquisition or Arriva pulling out, but not for a couple of years.

 

[winston270twm]

I think First will live to fight another day, its the company you hate to love, Its a real undog story,

I thought Stagecoach were more interested in Halton? Maybe Diamond will get bored and just sell off its operations to Go-Ahead?

Rotala bought Diamond off Go-Ahead in the first place

Go West Midlands (Diamond) was formed from the acquisition of The Birmingham Coach Company followed by People's Express (originally Pete's Travel), it cost Go-Ahead dearly & they quickly exited the WM.

 

[PaulMc7]

First will still be operating in some sense but not with as many opcos as now. I suspect that the biggest loss makers will go but the main strong areas will remain. They're the strong operator in my city (Glasgow) by far and control the majority of routes in the city so I am actually dreading if they ever go. A lot of people here hate them but they're aren't terrible by any stretch. Reliability is a problem with some routes but running through the city centre and some other roads can cause that problem for any operator here and the council don't do anywhere near enough to prevent the problems

 

[Robertj21a]

First will still be operating in some sense but not with as many opcos as now. I suspect that the biggest loss makers will go but the main strong areas will remain. They're the strong operator in my city (Glasgow) by far and control the majority of routes in the city so I am actually dreading if they ever go. A lot of people here hate them but they're aren't terrible by any stretch. Reliability is a problem with some routes but running through the city centre and some other roads can cause that problem for any operator here and the council don't do anywhere near enough to prevent the problems

Glasgow, and West Yorkshire, are the most profitable UK bus operations for First. They won't want to let either go unless someone offers a massive amount.

 

[PaulMc7]

Glasgow, and West Yorkshire, are the most profitable UK bus operations for First. They won't want to let either go unless someone offers a massive amount.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if anyone even attempts to go for either. People mention wanting a public run service up here but it would be a disaster as the council are skint

 

[37114]

We will have only 1 domestic bus builder in 10 years time, 2 of the current 3 either failing and/or production moving outside of the UK

 

[overthewater]

Rotala bought Diamond off Go-Ahead in the first place

Go West Midlands (Diamond) was formed from the acquisition of The Birmingham Coach Company followed by People's Express (originally Pete's Travel), it cost Go-Ahead dearly & they quickly exited the WM.

I know that.

 

[Geordie driver]

Continuing drop in passenger numbers outside London, eventually something has to give, they can't worsen wages and conditions any further.

Flexible road pricing for private cars, don't think the govt. is willing to give up on all that lovely money they get from the motorist, as more cars go electric. Want to drive into the city centre 8am on a week day? That will be a fiver please.

At first they might even invest some of this money in buses, but it won't last.

 

[winston270twm]

I know that.

If you know that, what an earth makes you think Go-Ahead would want to come back for a second go.

 

[carlberry]

If you know that, what an earth makes you think Go-Ahead would want to come back for a second go.

Stagecoach sold out of London then bought the same company back again (For a lot less than they sold it for) so it does happen.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Stagecoach sold out of London then bought the same company back again (For a lot less than they sold it for) so it does happen.

Yes......but these are the opposite circumstances. Go Ahead bought Geoff Howle out and paid a premium (and then bought Probus) and then sold for a thumping loss as they were losing over £4m p.a.

Stagecoach sold for a premium and then bought back from Macquarrie at a much reduced price

 

[Eyersey468]

I could see an abolition of Driver CPC (it's pointless as implemented and benefits nobody other than the companies that deliver it), and could also see us ending up allowing UK hours for all UK domestic work (so meaning an end to the nonsensical "connecting service" dodge).

While I agree the CPC legislation wasn't thought through properly AIUI it was the British government that wanted it bringing in. The really daft thing about it is there is nothing to say you can't do the same course 5 times even though it might not be relevant to the job you do.

 

[cnjb8]

I think that bus manufacturing is will see a new builder and more enteries from the Chinese market. If Optare want to survive, they should change their entire range. I hope Wrightbus can survive, maybe be the primal builder of hydrogen buses and moving away from Volvo. I can see ADL continue their upward trajectory with single deck biogas and hydrogen buses (maybe) with a rise in BYD products, maybe a +40 seat electric single decker and electric coaches. MCV and Mellor will continue their rise. Yutong will go from strength to strength as they have done very well this year and should produce a double decker electric. If Volvo want to survive in the bus market, they should make a 6-cylinder B5TL and body it with an ADL product. Scania should continue to produce biogas buses while Caetano should keep on producing NatEx coaches and expanding their zero emission range.
Anyone agree or disagree?

 

[Eyersey468]

Caetano should keep on producing NatEx coaches and expanding their zero emission range.
Anyone agree or disagree?

I believe the NX contract with Caetano is up next year and it's by no means certain they will get it back. I'm told there have been quite a few build quality issues with the Levantes.

 

[cnjb8]

I believe the NX contract with Caetano is up next year and it's by no means certain they will get it back. I'm told there have been quite a few build quality issues with the Levantes.

Wow, I did not know that. If Caetano lost NX work, then I can’t see them staying in the UK

 

[devonexpress]

Post Brexit Euro 6 will be superceded by UK 1 which will mandate that no bus will be allowed into service unless the exhaust fumes kill at least sixty five poor people per passenger mile travelled.

Fleets around the country will rush to acquire older stock, raiding museums, scrapyards and even Africa.

First and Arriva will be completely unaffected and will post bumper profits.

Come on, I said hopes and ideas but don't be stupid!

 

[scosutsut]

Come on, I said hopes and ideas but don't be stupid!

I was of course just reaching for a cheap laugh, unsuccessfully

I can't offer hopes or dreams but I do think LEZ and ULEZ zones will continue to appear all over the place in the inconsistent way that they have started to, which will cause the bigger groups headaches as they will run out of places to rotate older stock to.

Pressure will continue with the travelling public suffering as operators pull services and whole operations as it won't be palatable to buy enough new stock and council's will remain too cash strapped to subsidise them.

Basically in the areas where the numbers are tight, it will continue to be a struggle with cuts and fare increases, sadly.

 

[NorthClyde320]

Lothian Country ousts First from West Lothian, but only after Lothian pays First between £3 and £5 million.

Lothian is awarded the ScotRail franchise which in turn bankrupts the entire Lothian Group.

The Scottish Government introduces a bill forcing every bus company/operator in Scotland to rebrand their fleet as 'ScotBus' with a universal blue/white/saltire livery.

 

[Busaholic]

My sole prediction is that, barring a miracle, virtually none of the predictions here will come to pass, save that someone might get lucky with the collapse or withdrawal of one of the major groups. I say this on the basis of a booklet I bought in the mid 1980s in Bristol that had been produced in the early 1970s predicting how Bristol (the bus company, not the bus builders) would look ten years hence: it had been produced by the bus company as well, so could be said to have specialist knowledge behind it. Well, all I can say is that so many of the predictions were risible, looked at in 1985. So many of the trends of 1971, say, hardly made it into 1972, let alone any later. If you'd not known anything about bus operation, let alone in Bristol, you'd probably randomly have got more things right!

 

[NorthClyde320]

Joking aside I hope bus usage will not continue to decline in the way it has and that traffic congestion will not get anyworse, we can but hope.

 

[carlberry]

Fleets around the country will rush to acquire older stock, raiding museums, scrapyards and even Africa.

Whats wrong with acquiring from Africa, Stagecoach has done it already!