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The 2019 General Election Result and Aftermath

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TrafficEng

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Yes, I can cash it in tomorrow and put it in the bank. What makes you think you will be enriched due to Brexit?

At no point have I claimed I would be enriched due to Brexit.

On the other hand, you explicitly claimed that Brexit/Tory voters were "making yourselves poorer".

I'm trying to understand why you think that no Brexit/Tory voters would benefit in the same way you have done. Is there some secret rule that only Remain/non-Tory voters are allowed to hold shares?
 
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43066

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Yes, I can cash it in tomorrow and put it in the bank. What makes you think you will be enriched due to Brexit?
I love the statement on twitter "Brexit is like one of those American religious cults you see on TV....*give me your money and your life and soul will be enriched*".
Yes, r-i-g-h-t.

What makes you think he voted for Brexit in order to make himself richer?!
 

edwin_m

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Trying to move on:

I and I think most Remainers now accept that Brexit is going to happen. But nothing will convince me that it is a good idea, or that it was agreed by a legitimate democratic process in 2016, or that it has majority support now. The reasons have been gone through many times on this and other threads and I won't repeat them here. Going over that ground again just deepens the divisions Brexit has exposed in British society.

I do welcome some of the government's intentions, particularly the regeneration of the English regions which have largely been ignored by governments of all colours since 1979. I do hope they succeed in this, but it has to be said that the commitment to Brexit makes this more difficult for several reasons:
  • Debating and delivering all the necessary agreements represents a huge distraction.
  • Boris's successes as Mayor of London were largely due to having a capable team around him. The more competent ministers in previous governments realised that Brexit was a bad idea, and by various routes this led to them no longer being part of the present government. Most of the current cabinet strike me as intellectual midgets not well suited to the tasks they have committed to.
  • The short and long term damage to the economy makes it harder to pay for and implement the government's promises.
  • There is going to be a huge row over Scottish independence and quite possibly NI will seek to join the Republic. From the point of view of a government of England and Wales, that is more distraction.
There is also the question of trust. Most people would agree that Boris is highly untrustworthy and those who support him are doing so conditionally on him delivering on his promises. That support could very easily evaporate if he doesn't do that and do it quickly - not just on Brexit but on the other stuff too.

So in short I think Boris has a mountain to climb, with one hand tied behind his back and a ball and chain attached to at least one ankle. For the country's sake I hope he succeeds, but I have to say I have my doubts. And if he fails, and Labour in the meantime moves back to the centre, then the Tories could be out for a generation.
 

Howardh

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And if he fails, and Labour in the meantime moves back to the centre, then the Tories could be out for a generation.
It's the hope but they will have to take a good look at themselves. I don't think they will see the light and could well elect someone like Long-Bailey who seems to be fish out of water.
 

yorksrob

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It's certainly true that appallingly bad economic management by the Conservative party, along with their ideological opposition to the minor tax increases that would get us close to an eliminated deficit, now leaves the economy in an absolutely terrible state to face any forms of exogenous shock. It doesn't matter what the shock is, whether it were a natural disaster or an exit with no trade deal at the end of 2020.

This has always been the sting in the tail of the Thatcherite market economy. We end up more exposed to outside economic factors and consequently our recessions last longer and go deeper than those of more socially democratic countries.

The great sell of the market economy was that we were supposed to end up better off than the social democratic countries. In terms of income, wellbeing, social cohesion etc, that has patently failed. I think people have woken up and smelled the coffee on this - they just don't know how to implement a change. If the labour party can make itself electable and adopt a moderate social-democratic standpoint, I think the potential for reshaping things next time around is great.
 

43066

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Trying to move on:

I and I think most Remainers now accept that Brexit is going to happen. But nothing will convince me that it is a good idea, or that it was agreed by a legitimate democratic process in 2016, or that it has majority support now. The reasons have been gone through many times on this and other threads and I won't repeat them here. Going over that ground again just deepens the divisions Brexit has exposed in British society.

I do welcome some of the government's intentions, particularly the regeneration of the English regions which have largely been ignored by governments of all colours since 1979. I do hope they succeed in this, but it has to be said that the commitment to Brexit makes this more difficult for several reasons:
  • Debating and delivering all the necessary agreements represents a huge distraction.
  • Boris's successes as Mayor of London were largely due to having a capable team around him. The more competent ministers in previous governments realised that Brexit was a bad idea, and by various routes this led to them no longer being part of the present government. Most of the current cabinet strike me as intellectual midgets not well suited to the tasks they have committed to.
  • The short and long term damage to the economy makes it harder to pay for and implement the government's promises.
  • There is going to be a huge row over Scottish independence and quite possibly NI will seek to join the Republic. From the point of view of a government of England and Wales, that is more distraction.
There is also the question of trust. Most people would agree that Boris is highly untrustworthy and those who support him are doing so conditionally on him delivering on his promises. That support could very easily evaporate if he doesn't do that and do it quickly - not just on Brexit but on the other stuff too.

So in short I think Boris has a mountain to climb, with one hand tied behind his back and a ball and chain attached to at least one ankle. For the country's sake I hope he succeeds, but I have to say I have my doubts. And if he fails, and Labour in the meantime moves back to the centre, then the Tories could be out for a generation.

My hope is that the Tories sit up and take notice of the fact that they’ve now been trusted by many traditional Labour voters, in the face of their traditional party loyalty. These people need to be listened to and how well the Tories do that will be key to their success.

I would be very surprised if people voted to make themselves poorer.

I voted leave fully accepting that a leave result would result in some short term economic turmoil, a potential dip in house prices etc. so in that respect, yes, I suppose I did vote to make myself poorer.

In any case it seems my votes have just made you richer, so it’s win win. :D.
 

radamfi

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How many more times does the British public need to make its feelings on Brexit clear before remainers will finally accept it?

It severely affects our lives. We lose free movement. That is absolutely critical.
 

Esker-pades

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I’m quite clear in my own mind as to why I think the EU is a sinister, undemocratic, federalist political project which I do not want this country to be a part of.

I’m afraid the time to have this debate was in the run up to the 2016 referendum (leave won that debate!). I see little point in rerunning it now, 3.5 years on.

When will you finally accept the result of the 2016 referendum? Why do you think the Tories have just been returned with a stonking majority?

How many more times does the British public need to make its feelings on Brexit clear before remainers will finally accept it?
I questioned it because you brought it up. I continue to reserve my right to question any statements that I consider dubious.

The difference between a 2nd referendum and this General Election was the fact that Jeremy Corbyn was part of it. A straight Leave v Remain referendum would probably have returned a remain majority (as the proportion of votes cast in the general election shows). But, add the awful figure that is Corbyn's Labour party, and people feel like they have to vote Johnson to block Corbyn. I've already stated in this thread that ex-Labour voters, ex-Labour MPs, Labour candidates and canvassers, and polling data shows that Corbyn being awful was far more important than Labour's Brexit policy.

I originally did 'accept' the result. I was broadly in favour of Brexit until 2017. I am now firmly of the position that Brexit will be a bad idea, broadly because Leave figures have put forward such awful arguments since then. Because I think it will be a bad idea, I will try and stop it from happening through democratic means. Of course, this election means that Brexit will happen.

I broadly agree with this statement:
I and I think most Remainers now accept that Brexit is going to happen. But nothing** will convince me that it is a good idea, or that it was agreed by a legitimate democratic process in 2016, or that it has majority support now.
My asterisks.
(**I can be convinced that Brexit is a good idea. I would much prefer to think 'Brexit will make the country better off', or even (although this shouldn't be the case) 'Brexit will not make the country worse off'. But, without evidence, I cannot. I'm finding this whole Brexit thing as ball-achingly tedious as the rest of you. If it can be demonstrated that leaving won't be worse than remaining (again, it should make us better, but there we go), then I'll be happy.)
 

TrafficEng

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Some good points well made. I'll respond to a few of them.

Boris's successes as Mayor of London were largely due to having a capable team around him. The more competent ministers in previous governments realised that Brexit was a bad idea, and by various routes this led to them no longer being part of the present government. Most of the current cabinet strike me as intellectual midgets not well suited to the tasks they have committed to.

The intellectual ability of ministers isn't really that important for delivery. Their principal function is PR (and taking the flak when things go wrong). So long as there is a decent team of Civil Servants and advisors in place the ability of the Minister is unimportant. If we could move on past our obsession with judging people on the basis of their performance in front of a TV camera it would help a great deal. (and I suspect JC and I would agree on that point)

So the key issue is how effectively can Boris bring in the right people behind the scenes as he did as London Mayor. Possibly some of the right people were reluctant to take on jobs before the election because their tenure would be very uncertain. With (probably) a 4.4 year clear run, and a majority that allows relatively unimpeded implementation I think appointments in non-political roles will be highly sought after.

The short and long term damage to the economy makes it harder to pay for and implement the government's promises.

Skipping past any debate over the extent and duration of any possible damage, I think the answer here is the one the left have been championing for the last 10 years. The ability of Governments to borrow and spend (on construction) in difficult economic times has been a tool used many times in the past. Historically low interest rates and a squeeze on spending in the recent past possibly puts the Government in a good position to use this lever wisely. In addition, with the terrible interest rates paid to savers I would not be surprised if there is some form of Boris Bond that offers savers the opportunity to invest in rebuilding our infrastructure. It might cost a bit more than borrowing on the market, but would deliver additional benefits for (potential) voters.

And if it all goes horribly wrong, he can point out that Labour's plan was to borrow and spend wildly, and the left have been demanding it for a decade, so the country would have been as bad, if not worse off, if a Labour Government was in charge instead.

There is going to be a huge row over Scottish independence and quite possibly NI will seek to join the Republic. From the point of view of a government of England and Wales, that is more distraction.

I think the possible way out on this is to tell Sturgeon she needs to develop a fully worked out and costed plan for Scottish independence, including preliminary discussion with the UK Government and EU over issues such as border controls, currency, debt and EU accession.

Then have a free vote in the Commons, on the basis of the plan, whether it should be put to the people in a (binding?) referendum. Sturgeon can hardly refuse this when she has been banging on for the last 4 years about how the 2016 referendum isn't valid because it wasn't conducted on the basis of a worked-through plan.

I would also expect a large number of English Conservative MPs to abstain in the vote (if it happens). The number of MPs required to block the referendum would be quite small, and tactically it would place Labour and the LibDems in a very difficult position if it is their votes that either allow or block IndyRef2.

I would also add into the mix whether voters in the other three countries of the Union should also get to vote on Scotland's future, as leaving the Union could impact on them as well. For example, if the deal with Scotland didn't involve them taking on a fair share of UK debt then it would only be fair if English, Welsh and NI voters were able to veto the deal.
 

underbank

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Personally, I don't think Boris needs to do anything re Scotland. The Tories don't need Scottish MPs (they've never had many anyway and now even less). The SNP is, and continues to be, a threat to Labour's hopes of winning the next GE. Boris can ignore Scotland and let the SNP and Labour battle it out between them. If, eg, the next Labour leader promises a Scottish Indy Referendum, then Labour may well start to regain Scottish MPs (even moreso if they can find a credible Scottish labour party leader). If Boris can keep the Northern constituencies he's just won, then he'll be in a good position for the next GE. Pointless for Boris wasting time on Scottish issues as he's nothing to lose. As long as he just allows Scotland to carry on as normal (i.e. doesn't do anything against them, just keeps the status quo), it's not an issue for him.
 

TrafficEng

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A straight Leave v Remain referendum would probably have returned a remain majority (as the proportion of votes cast in the general election shows).

Except it doesn't. Here's the maths.

Conservative + Brexit (Leave) = 45.6%

LibDem, SNP, Green (Remain) = 18.1%

Labour (Undecided/Indeterminate) = 32.1%

Adding the whole of the Labour vote to Remain gives 50.2% which is indeed a majority.

But where is your evidence that the whole of the Labour vote would support Remain in an In/Out vote?

None of us can conclusively prove it one way or the other. But I would say that it is far more plausible that 14%* of Labour voters would have opted for Leave than it is to say 100% of them would have opted for Remain. (*the amount required for more than an additional 4.4% of voters as a whole)

That doesn't take into account the voters who didn't vote for one reason or another. But given the enormity of the Brexit decision and the amount of campaigning done by the Remain side, it would take a huge leap to assert that a large percentage of non-voters were Remainers waiting patiently for a second referendum before making their views known.
 

Dave1987

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As a Remainer I am perfectly happy to accept that we will be leaving the EU. Johnson campaigned on a motto of getting Brexit done and won a thumping great majority from it. Fair play, democracy has prevailed. But I will insist that Brexiteers own the consequences of what they have asked for. Johnson himself has caused a lot of the hate and nastiness that has come about from the Brexit debate so I think its pretty hypocritical of him to now expect the country to come together again and heal. This whole Brexit debate has torn the country in two. You wanted Brexit so you have own the consequences of it! For all the talk of a huge trade deal with the US. Trump is turning the US into even more of a protectionist than ever. The EU have just completed a huge free trade deal with South America.... go figure
 

43066

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A straight Leave v Remain referendum would probably have returned a remain majority (as the proportion of votes cast in the general election shows).

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we have already had a straight leave v. remain referendum, and we were promised the result would be implemented.

3.5 years on, the reason it hasn’t yet been implemented has been the failure of the political classes to accept a result they don’t like.
 

edwin_m

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(**I can be convinced that Brexit is a good idea. I would much prefer to think 'Brexit will make the country better off', or even (although this shouldn't be the case) 'Brexit will not make the country worse off'. But, without evidence, I cannot. I'm finding this whole Brexit thing as ball-achingly tedious as the rest of you. If it can be demonstrated that leaving won't be worse than remaining (again, it should make us better, but there we go), then I'll be happy.)
Me too. But since no credible rational argument has been put forward in 4 years to support Brexit, I've concluded that there isn't one.
The intellectual ability of ministers isn't really that important for delivery.
There's a one word response to that: "Grayling".
Their principal function is PR (and taking the flak when things go wrong).
...
So long as there is a decent team of Civil Servants and advisors in place the ability of the Minister is unimportant. If we could move on past our obsession with judging people on the basis of their performance in front of a TV camera it would help a great deal.
Many of the top civil servants and diplomats have gone for similar reasons, most recently the person tasked with explaining Brexit to the Americans. Latest news of a shakeup of the civil service led by Cummings is sure to push out a few more that aren't prepared to toe a particular political line. And aren't you contradicting yourself somewhat here - if they don't have any input to policy and they shouldn't be employed for PR purposes then why have ministers at all?
Skipping past any debate over the extent and duration of any possible damage, I think the answer here is the one the left have been championing for the last 10 years. The ability of Governments to borrow and spend (on construction) in difficult economic times has been a tool used many times in the past. Historically low interest rates and a squeeze on spending in the recent past possibly puts the Government in a good position to use this lever wisely. In addition, with the terrible interest rates paid to savers I would not be surprised if there is some form of Boris Bond that offers savers the opportunity to invest in rebuilding our infrastructure. It might cost a bit more than borrowing on the market, but would deliver additional benefits for (potential) voters.
They will need to do something like this but "skipping past any debate" is really ducking the issue. Britain will be less prosperous overall due to Brexit. Perhaps more importantly if you're looking to borrow money, the extent of the downside isn't known and won't be at least until the situation at the end of 2020 is decided and probably not even then. So Brexit makes it more difficult to achieve the regeneration the government says it wants and the country undoubtedly needs.

The people who have advocated borrowing more have also pointed out, with good reason, that austerity hasn't achieved is objectives and has actually made things worse. So we have a pretty weak economy with another global recession quite likely.
I think the possible way out on this is to tell Sturgeon she needs to develop a fully worked out and costed plan for Scottish independence, including preliminary discussion with the UK Government and EU over issues such as border controls, currency, debt and EU accession.
That seems eminently sensible. While I entirely understand the desire of many Scots to escape from an English-centred government that has basically ignored their wishes since 2014, it's totally unclear whether Scotland would be better off independent within Europe or sticking with a Brexit-hobbled England as there are considerable risks to both. So a period of reflection would be beneficial to both sides.
Then have a free vote in the Commons, on the basis of the plan, whether it should be put to the people in a (binding?) referendum. Sturgeon can hardly refuse this when she has been banging on for the last 4 years about how the 2016 referendum isn't valid because it wasn't conducted on the basis of a worked-through plan.

I would also expect a large number of English Conservative MPs to abstain in the vote (if it happens). The number of MPs required to block the referendum would be quite small, and tactically it would place Labour and the LibDems in a very difficult position if it is their votes that either allow or block IndyRef2.
Maybe. I would have thought it was enough to grant Sturgeon her referendum once she comes up with a plan, and leave it to the voters to decide. I'm unconvinced that either Tories or any other party would want to block it and re-open yet another rift.

Although there's an issue with the UK government needing to agree or at least define in advance the arrangements for things like debt allocation.

I would also add into the mix whether voters in the other three countries of the Union should also get to vote on Scotland's future, as leaving the Union could impact on them as well. For example, if the deal with Scotland didn't involve them taking on a fair share of UK debt then it would only be fair if English, Welsh and NI voters were able to veto the deal.
Not sure how that would work. If the whole of the UK has votes then even a minority opinion amongst 55 million non-Scots could squash a strong consensus across 5 million Scots. And something like one Scottish vote counting for 10 non-Scottish ones opens up all sorts of scope for disagreement. Perhaps the rest of the UK needs to agree the elements of the Sturgeon plan that affect them, before the Scots vote on the plan as a whole?

Having done Brexit on the basis of a questionable in/out vote also makes it more difficult for the Tories to insist Scotland does something better.
 
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Esker-pades

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At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we have already had a straight leave v. remain referendum, and we were promised the result would be implemented.

3.5 years on, the reason it hasn’t yet been implemented has been the failure of the political classes to accept a result they don’t like.
The first time you stated that, I responded with two major things. I can't find your response to them.

"Two major things:
1. The Leave Campaign told serious lies.
2. The Leave Campaign has been fined for breaking electoral rules."

It's fine if you don't want to. But, until then, I'll park the democracy part of this debate because it will go round in circles.
 

43066

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The first time you stated that, I responded with two major things. I can't find your response to them.

"Two major things:
1. The Leave Campaign told serious lies.
2. The Leave Campaign has been fined for breaking electoral rules."

It's fine if you don't want to. But, until then, I'll park the democracy part of this debate because it will go round in circles.

The remain campaign also told serious lies. That comes with the territory in any kind of election, unfortunately.

The biggest remain lie being that a leave victory would lead to an immediate recession, that has since proved utterly false!
 

Ferret

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It is a massive error to assume that votes for Labour were votes for remain; Corbyn has been a lifelong Eurosceptic, and indeed wanted A50 triggered the day after the referendum.
 

furnessvale

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The remain campaign also told serious lies. That comes with the territory in any kind of election, unfortunately.

The biggest remain lie being that a leave victory would lead to an immediate recession, that has since proved utterly false!
That was one lie but IMO not the biggest. To me that was the idea that a vote for remain was a vote for the "status quo" with a clear implication that the status quo meant no change. This is patently untrue as the EU itself states its objective is ever closer union.
 

furnessvale

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It severely affects our lives. We lose free movement. That is absolutely critical.
To what percentage of the UK population is free movement "absolutely critical"? AND I am not referring to a fortnight on the Costas every year which was easily doable before we even joined the EEC, let alone the EU.
 

Esker-pades

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The remain campaign also told serious lies. That comes with the territory in any kind of election, unfortunately.

The biggest remain lie being that a leave victory would lead to an immediate recession, that has since proved utterly false!
Both campaigns telling lies is an argument for having a 2nd referendum, not against.

Secondly, predictions turning out to be incorrect are not the same as outright lies.


(Yes. This is probably pointless. The UK will now leave the EU.)
 
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TrafficEng

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And aren't you contradicting yourself somewhat here - if they don't have any input to policy and they shouldn't be employed for PR purposes then why have ministers at all?

I didn't say they don't have any input to policy.

I didn't say they shouldn't be employed for PR purposes.

They will need to do something like this but "skipping past any debate" is really ducking the issue.

On the contrary, it was "Trying to move on". Happy to re-engage when this has been achieved. In the meantime there is very little point in going over the same ground yet again.
 

radamfi

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To what percentage of the UK population is free movement "absolutely critical"? AND I am not referring to a fortnight on the Costas every year which was easily doable before we even joined the EEC, let alone the EU.

It is absolutely critical to me and lots of other people. Many of us have been suffering from extreme mental pain for three and a half years. This has knock on physical effects.
 

TrafficEng

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That was one lie but IMO not the biggest. To me that was the idea that a vote for remain was a vote for the "status quo" with a clear implication that the status quo meant no change. This is patently untrue as the EU itself states its objective is ever closer union.

Absolutely. And flowing from that there is the myth that "Remain" was a single option whereas "Leave" was an infinite range of ideas, the complexity of which and the lack of universal agreement on any single one was sufficient grounds to Remain instead.
 

jfollows

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It is absolutely critical to me and lots of other people. Many of us have been suffering from extreme mental pain for three and a half years. This has knock on physical effects.
I totally agree with you.
I want to remain in the EU primarily because I value my right to travel and live anywhere in the EU, and I object to having this taken away.
Of course, following the election I now accept that the battle to remain in the EU is now lost, and I and others need to move on.
 

radamfi

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I totally agree with you.
I want to remain in the EU primarily because I value my right to travel and live anywhere in the EU, and I object to having this taken away.
Of course, following the election I now accept that the battle to remain in the EU is now lost, and I and others need to move on.

My life is over without free movement so I will never move on!
 

Howardh

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I totally agree with you.
I want to remain in the EU primarily because I value my right to travel and live anywhere in the EU, and I object to having this taken away.
Of course, following the election I now accept that the battle to remain in the EU is now lost, and I and others need to move on.
The only people governments remove rights and freedoms from are criminals?? Anyhow, it will be fun when we have to dole out freedom of movement with all the countries we will be begging to do trade with as part of those deals. Be even more fun if one of the first was Turkey.
 

43066

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That was one lie but IMO not the biggest. To me that was the idea that a vote for remain was a vote for the "status quo" with a clear implication that the status quo meant no change. This is patently untrue as the EU itself states its objective is ever closer union.

On balance I agree with you. That was an even more dastardly lie.

To what percentage of the UK population is free movement "absolutely critical"? AND I am not referring to a fortnight on the Costas every year which was easily doable before we even joined the EEC, let alone the EU.

Free movement is an absolutely terrible policy that has undercut wages in many areas, irreparably changed many parts of the U.K. and led to widespread exploitation of workers - not to mention creating a brain drain from Eastern European countries.

Immigration is very necessary but it needs to be properly controlled - the right to work in the U.K. should be given to people whose skills are in demand, there should be no automatic right to settlement or citizenship.

Sounds radical? After decades of EU membership I guess it does! But that’s merely the status quo in most modern, prosperous western democracies.

As for the old trope that the NHS depends on free movement, there’s no reason why a sensible domestically controlled immigration policy shouldn’t continue to permit migration, but perhaps we should also invest in upskilling the indigenous population rather than using uncontrolled immigration as a sticking plaster.

It is absolutely critical to me and lots of other people. Many of us have been suffering from extreme mental pain for three and a half years. This has knock on physical effects.

I’m genuinely sorry to hear you’ve been feeling mental anguish - I wouldn’t wish that on anyone. But don’t you think you’re being a little over the top here?

Even without free movement, if you want to work abroad it should be possible for you to obtain a visa etc. in many countries if your job permits it.
 
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radamfi

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I’m genuinely sorry to hear you’ve been feeling mental anguish - I wouldn’t wish that on anyone. But don’t you think you’re being a little over the top here?

Even without free movement, if you want to work abroad it should be possible for you to obtain a visa etc. in many countries if your job permits it.

I'm not interested in working abroad. I just want to retire. You would have thought there would be fewer restrictions on that, as you won't be taking jobs from locals, but most countries don't offer that or only offer it to people with previous ties to the country.
 

Enthusiast

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I have been saying exactly this for 4 years since we first got the news of the renegotiation. Nobody seems to have listened at any point.
No more "Ever Closer Union" was no great achievement for Leavers and certainly not enough to persuade them to vote Remain. Most (if not all) Leavers were not only concerned with the future development of the EU but were totally dissatisfied with the way it currently is. A promise (albeit an EU promise which seem to have a habit of being somewhat temporary) that it would get no worse for the UK was hardly likely to sway their choice.
 
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