WCML New Rolling Stock Discussion

[krus_aragon]

I wonder what implications, if any, HS2 had on the choice of new rolling stock for the 221 replacement within the West Coast Partnership?

I.e. if it were that the stock is to be non-tilt, should it and would it have been tilting stock if it was known HS2 was to be under review?

"Woulds and shoulds" would only be appropriate if the HS2 review had reached a conclusion. Otherwise, the options would be to work on the basis of current plans, or to defer any decisions until after the review.

 

[pt_mad]

"Woulds and shoulds" would only be appropriate if the HS2 review had reached a conclusion. Otherwise, the options would be to work on the basis of current plans, or to defer any decisions until after the review.

That was sort of my point I guess. If 221 replacement rolling stock will already have been agreed upon as some seem to suggest, is that still suitable even with a risk that HS2 might be scaled back or dropped? There had been suggestions within this thread that the bi-mode stock announcements might be made straight after the standstill period?

 

[Bletchleyite]

That was sort of my point I guess. If 221 replacement rolling stock will already have been agreed upon as some seem to suggest, is that still suitable even with a risk that HS2 might be scaled back or dropped? There had been suggestions within this thread that the bi-mode stock announcements might be made straight after the standstill period?

It could go either way. For instance, if HS2 is reduced in speed to 140mph, Class 80x (which I think is the most likely bi-mode to be ordered) will be suitable for it as-is.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Indeed, there's some who state things like "Coventry will have its Intercity services slashed after HS2 opens" forgetting that it's 60-90 minutes from London and so what's the big advantage of having Intercity services compared to anything else?

Plenty of other places (i.e. Southampton) are comparable journey times with no intercity services. Yes the 390's are nice, but given the choice for an hour long run few are going to be upset if a 444 (assuming it had OHLE capability) provided the service from Coventry to London rather than a 390. In fact there would be a fair few who would prefer it if they did.

That's a good point. If the new stock is going to be non-tilit and limited to 110mph, then something like a 444 would probably be a reasonable choice. Not having crumple zones for 125mph running would mean more room for seats, and unit-end gangways would be useful if it's going to be half-length units with portion working. If the new TOC has chosen to order brand new trains with pointy noses, then they damn well had better be able to run at 125mph on the WCML and hopefully be full-length sets (with the Wrexham or one of the Bangor/Holyhead services moved so that they run in seperate hours rather than combining south of Chester).

 

[krus_aragon]

That was sort of my point I guess. If 221 replacement rolling stock will already have been agreed upon as some seem to suggest, is that still suitable even with a risk that HS2 might be scaled back or dropped? There had been suggestions within this thread that the bi-mode stock announcements might be made straight after the standstill period?

I'm probably responsible for the latter, though what I was trying to convey was that there'll be nothing announced before the standstill ends (so people should be patient).

There is a risk that the new stock may not turn out to be the best choice, but we don't know what the specification of that stock is (yet), and nobody knows what the outcome of the review is yet either.

The positive outlook is that whatever happens it's a relatively small order, and may help solve XC's capacity issues through cascades.

 

[mmh]

That's a good point. If the new stock is going to be non-tilit and limited to 110mph, then something like a 444 would probably be a reasonable choice. Not having crumple zones for 125mph running would mean more room for seats

You no longer have to have a passenger-free section in a 125mph end car - see for example the standard class driving cars on class 80x.

 

[Rhydgaled]

You no longer have to have a passenger-free section in a 125mph end car - see for example the standard class driving cars on class 80x.

The first part of your post may or may not be true, but the class 800 is not an example. There is a space between the cab door and the leading passenger door on all class 800 driving vehicles (where the GWR/LNER logo is), which I had assumed was a passenger-free section (and appears to be off-limits on GWR's seat plan too).

 

[Aictos]

The first part of your post may or may not be true, but the class 800 is not an example. There is a space between the cab door and the leading passenger door on all class 800 driving vehicles (where the GWR/LNER logo is), which I had assumed was a passenger-free section (and appears to be off-limits on GWR's seat plan too).

However the ICE3 sets do not have any non passenger areas between the cabs and passenger saloons as on some services depending on the driver you can get a view of the track ahead and they run faster then 125mph so I believe these regulations no longer apply.

 

[Energy]

I don't think HS2 will have influence on the WCML as HS2 ltd is a seperate company owned by the DfT. I doubt the HS2 review will have influence on the new rolling stock to replace voyagers as the review as only just been announced and probably won't be done before the new franchise has decided the rolling stock.

 

[Bletchleyite]

However the ICE3 sets do not have any non passenger areas between the cabs and passenger saloons as on some services depending on the driver you can get a view of the track ahead and they run faster then 125mph so I believe these regulations no longer apply.

It was a UK regulation, not an EU/UIC one. DB have long used driving trailers and EMUs at all speeds with passenger accommodation right up to the back of the cab.

 

[pt_mad]

I don't think HS2 will have influence on the WCML as HS2 ltd is a seperate company owned by the DfT. I doubt the HS2 review will have influence on the new rolling stock to replace voyagers as the review as only just been announced and probably won't be done before the new franchise has decided the rolling stock.

HS2 does influence the WCML as the whole idea is to build it and take the Manchester and Scottish intercity stuff over HS2 and not the WCML. Also the new WCML franchise includes running the trains on HS2 from opening until 2031.
The HS2 review could have an influence on the 221 replacement stock as, if the unthinkable happened and HS2 was cancelled, any potential order of non tilting stock, if it turned out to be that, would probably turn out to be far less useful on the WCML inside a future where tilt stays indefinitely due to no HS2.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It could go either way. For instance, if HS2 is reduced in speed to 140mph, Class 80x (which I think is the most likely bi-mode to be ordered) will be suitable for it as-is.

So would the Pendolinos, if fitted with ETCS (TASS is already a subset) - so you would have your classic compatible stock already.
Not that I think that is likely.
I can't see the HS2 speed being less than 300km/h, or we will be in laughing stock territory!

In some ways the HS2 review improves the business case for new EMUs/bi-modes as if nothing else, the timescale for HS2 starting up is going to move out.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't see why it would be laughing stock. HS1 domestics only run at 140mph (the stock is basically a forerunner of the Class 80x design, a 20m regional version if you like), and HS2 is more like a Swiss or German Neubaustrecke (built for capacity, sometimes at a lower speed) than an LGV French style. Nonetheless, my view is that 300km/h is the right speed for it, as it would reduce costs substantially (due to off the shelf components) while delivering almost all of the benefits.

 

[Rhydgaled]

I can't see the HS2 speed being less than 300km/h, or we will be in laughing stock territory!

Only if you still call it HS2. Cancel it and announce that you are going to build a new 100mph line(s) / reopen the Great Central for freight and local passenger services (allowing some new stations on the new line(s) and you could have a sensible and popular, if less benifical, scheme. Intercity services would still be on the WCML and you wouldn't get many of the benifits of HS2, but you might be able to move some of the freight of the WCML to make room for more WCML local passenger services.

my view is that 300km/h is the right speed for it, as it would reduce costs substantially (due to off the shelf components) while delivering almost all of the benefits.

I'm in two minds about whether I want HS2 to go ahead or not, but if it does I think the design speed and max operational speed should be 325kph. I have/had three reasons for this:

• Marketing: you could call the trains 'INTERCITY 325', but given the illustrations released I'm not sure any of the options are really worthy of the name.
• Off-the shelf designs (eg. Eurostar e320) can do 320kph, so 325kph is not really pushing boundaries unlike the 400kph proposed
• Marketing (again): in Britain we still use miles rather than kilometres, 320kph is just shy of 200mph, but 325kph means the service can be truefully marketed as a 200mph service (actually nearly 202mph).

 

[rdlover777]

• Marketing: you could call the trains 'INTERCITY 325', but given the illustrations released I'm not sure any of the options are really worthy of the name.

I would love to see the proposed HS2 trains painted in either BR Blue and Grey or Swalllow with InterCity 325 on the side

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would love to see the proposed HS2 trains painted in either BR Blue and Grey or Swalllow with InterCity 325 on the side

Stranger things have happened, after all we got Class 350s in BR Pullman livery for a bit...

 

[rdlover777]

Stranger things have happened, after all we got Class 350s in BR Pullman livery for a bit...

wait what?!

 

[Bletchleyite]

wait what?!

350 in "BR Pullman" colours for Silverlink/Central

 

[hooverboy]

Only if you still call it HS2. Cancel it and announce that you are going to build a new 100mph line(s) / reopen the Great Central for freight and local passenger services (allowing some new stations on the new line(s) and you could have a sensible and popular, if less benifical, scheme. Intercity services would still be on the WCML and you wouldn't get many of the benifits of HS2, but you might be able to move some of the freight of the WCML to make room for more WCML local passenger services.

I'm in two minds about whether I want HS2 to go ahead or not, but if it does I think the design speed and max operational speed should be 325kph. I have/had three reasons for this:

• Marketing: you could call the trains 'INTERCITY 325', but given the illustrations released I'm not sure any of the options are really worthy of the name.
• Off-the shelf designs (eg. Eurostar e320) can do 320kph, so 325kph is not really pushing boundaries unlike the 400kph proposed
• Marketing (again): in Britain we still use miles rather than kilometres, 320kph is just shy of 200mph, but 325kph means the service can be truefully marketed as a 200mph service (actually nearly 202mph).

for HS2 I think 300kph would be adequate.
It means london - edinburgh in about 3 hours,which is basically the same as a flight would take,once you include check in and security.

 

[edwin_m]

for HS2 I think 300kph would be adequate.
It means london - edinburgh in about 3 hours,which is basically the same as a flight would take,once you include check in and security.

That would need high speed infrastructure to continue a lot further north than currently proposed. The blurb says about 3hr45min which will be based on a higher speed than 300km/h.

Saving a few minutes to Birmingham or Manchester isn't such a big deal in terms of attracting passengers, as few of them fly these routes unless connecting onwards from Heathrow. But as you mention there is a "tipping point" at around 3hr where the train takes most of the passengers from air, and in fact it may now be closer to 4hr with increased airport security in recent years. London to Edinburgh/Glasgow is in this range so any extension of the journey time by a lower top speed on the HS section could disproportionately reduce the ridership.

 

[Energy]

HS2 does influence the WCML as the whole idea is to build it and take the Manchester and Scottish intercity stuff over HS2 and not the WCML. Also the new WCML franchise includes running the trains on HS2 from opening until 2031.
The HS2 review could have an influence on the 221 replacement stock as, if the unthinkable happened and HS2 was cancelled, any potential order of non tilting stock, if it turned out to be that, would probably turn out to be far less useful on the WCML inside a future where tilt stays indefinitely due to no HS2.

The new franchise was awarded a few days before the review was announced. Whether the rolling stock tilts or not has probably been already decided. And I'm fairly sure rolling stock isn't transferred to HS2, only services. The current services on WCML are just going to stop more. And HS2 has already got the bids from manufacturers submitted for new trains, confirming that transfer of rolling stock from WCML to HS2 is unlikely. Of course the new trains should be able to run on HS2 if needed but HS2 won't get much more influence than that on the new rolling stock for the WCML. Also the new franchise getting control of services on HS2 means that the franchise holder is getting control on some of HS2 (such as train interiors) not HS2 getting control over the WCML.

 

[pt_mad]

Whether the rolling stock tilts or not has probably been already decided. And I'm fairly sure rolling stock isn't transferred to HS2, only services. The current services on WCML are just going to stop more. And HS2 has already got the bids from manufacturers submitted for new trains, confirming that transfer of rolling stock from WCML to HS2 is unlikely.

You're right, the 221 replacement class for the WCML is probably already decided. My point was, this stock will either be tilt capable or it won't be, and that's probably decided now as you pointed out. But now we have a slight potential, given it might be very slight, that HS2 could be cancelled.
Now if this 221 replacement stock is non-tilt, it will be far less useful for the next 20 years on the classic lines if HS2 is cancelled and the WCML remains the main route and journey times have to be fast.

I'm not at all suggesting the new bi-modes would need to run over HS2. As you point out there will be new trains procured for that if it goes ahead.
My point is, the only logical reason why non-tilting stock would be ordered for the classic WCML is if HS2 was definitely going ahead, meaning tilt wouldn't be important after 2026 when most long distance services use HS2, where journey times will be more critical.

I.e. HS2 phase one to go ahead = tilt not so important on the classic WCML anymore as high-speed headline journey time services will use HS2.

HS2 phase one not going ahead = WCML to keep the headline journey Intercity services and so tilt to remain very important to keep headline journey times low.

 

[AndrewE]

I.e. HS2 phase one to go ahead = tilt not so important on the classic WCML anymore as high-speed headline journey time services will use HS2.

HS2 phase one not going ahead = WCML to keep the headline journey Intercity services and so tilt to remain very important to keep headline journey times low.

Oh yes it is! There is a lot of traffic on the classic WCML that will not benefit from HS2 at all. Lots of people do not travel to or from London.

 

[Energy]

You're right, the 221 replacement class for the WCML is probably already decided. My point was, this stock will either be tilt capable or it won't be, and that's probably decided now as you pointed out. But now we have a slight potential, given it might be very slight, that HS2 could be cancelled.
Now if this 221 replacement stock is non-tilt, it will be far less useful for the next 20 years on the classic lines if HS2 is cancelled and the WCML remains the main route and journey times have to be fast.

I'm not at all suggesting the new bi-modes would need to run over HS2. As you point out there will be new trains procured for that if it goes ahead.
My point is, the only logical reason why non-tilting stock would be ordered for the classic WCML is if HS2 was definitely going ahead, meaning tilt wouldn't be important after 2026 when most long distance services use HS2, where journey times will be more critical.

I.e. HS2 phase one to go ahead = tilt not so important on the classic WCML anymore as high-speed headline journey time services will use HS2.

HS2 phase one not going ahead = WCML to keep the headline journey Intercity services and so tilt to remain very important to keep headline journey times low.

I think that they will be tilting as HS2 phase 1 (the hit to Birmingham) opens in 2026, phase 2a in 2027 and phase 2b in 2033 (all of these of HS2s website) now the new WCML rolling stock is coming in 2022 (that's 2 years after the franchise starts, I have a feeling it may be a bit later than that) then it has already 4 years (more like 5) of its current operations before HS2.

 

[pt_mad]

Oh yes it is! There is a lot of traffic on the classic WCML that will not benefit from HS2 at all. Lots of people do not travel to or from London.

Whether you and I consider tilt as vital to a classic WCML after HS2 will probably be different to how critical the DFT envisage tilt on the WCML once the Scottish Manchester's and Liverpool headline services use HS2. If the next generation EMUs for the WCML after a HS2, i.e. if 390 replacements aren't likely to be tilting trains in 2035 then why would 2022 trains be tilt capable if they were chosen at a time when HS2 was definitely to go ahead?

 

[pt_mad]

I think that they will be tilting as HS2 phase 1 (the hit to Birmingham) opens in 2026, phase 2a in 2027 and phase 2b in 2033 (all of these of HS2s website) now the new WCML rolling stock is coming in 2022 (that's 2 years after the franchise starts, I have a feeling it may be a bit later than that) then it has already 4 years (more like 5) of its current operations before HS2.

Phase 1 joins the classic West Coast Mainline just north of Lichfield though, meaning the main intercity services from London to Manchester Liverpool and Glasgow/Preston will use phase 1 in 2026 and rejoin the West Coast there and onwards.

 

[Energy]

Phase 1 joins the classic West Coast Mainline just north of Lichfield though, meaning the main intercity services from London to Manchester Liverpool and Glasgow/Preston will use phase 1 in 2026 and rejoin the West Coast there and onwards.

They can always turn off tilt in the future if they don't need it but those 4 years (if all goes to plan) will still be with slower stock and therefore less trains.

 

[pt_mad]

They can always turn off tilt in the future if they don't need it but those 4 years (if all goes to plan) will still be with slower stock and therefore less trains.

Indeed the 4 years would be with slower stock in terms of the 23 new trains IF they were to be non tilt. However acceleration of new trains would likely be far superior to a 221.

 

[Energy]

Indeed the 4 years would be with slower stock in terms of the 23 new trains IF they were to be non tilt. However acceleration of new trains would likely be far superior to a 221.

With this rolling stock order we can't really say much as all the stuff which currently exists doesn't support bmu, but that doesn't mean it isn't possible. This is excluding the emu order as there is lots of selection for that.

 

[Energy]

Well Stadler make the SMILE (or EC250) and the hat is based of the flirt, bimode flirts are already in service with Greater Anglia and will be with TFW, so could Stadler make a tilting 6 or 5 car version of the SMILE and put a powerpack (or whatever they call it) in the middle.