ScotRail HST Introduction - Updates & Discussion

[jingsmonty]

The agreement that was reached in 2016 with ScotRail, Transport Scotland and the RMT over toilet discharge was specifically for Scotrail leased stock. The Fife circle Mk2 stock is owned and operated by DRS, so presumably this falls outside the agreement. They could technically run different non scotrail branded Mk2 coaches if required. Whereas the HSTs are leased by ScotRail and so are subject to the agreement.

Makes sense - big difference running 1 specific commuter train to running the entire Scotrail Inter7city network

 

[jingsmonty]

Oversprayed panel, Yeah had that one. Although the 158 I had tonight was fresh out and pretty sharp. Back on topic, I did hear of a fair bit of HST activity at Killie today, will have to find out more tomorrow

I think this may be just a remarshalling of unrefurbished coaches for passenger service, as opposed to Kilmarnock taking on refurbishment work. Has anyone heard different?

 

[scotraildriver]

Seems like it. The ones at Glasgow works are all split up and getting moved around. The TGS on our green set needs turned round, don't know how that's going to happen!

 

[jingsmonty]

Seems like it. The ones at Glasgow works are all split up and getting moved around. The TGS on our green set needs turned round, don't know how that's going to happen!

Haven't seen the green set yet - I've not been near an HST for almost 8 weeks, though. Did see 2 'Classic' sets at Eastfield on Saturday...

 

[Goldromans]

Does anyone know why all the 'classic' sets seem to only have 4 coaches? I thought the original timetable would have seen some refurbished 5-coach sets in service by the end of the year, so surely (some of) the necessary work has been done to accommodate these eg. at depots?

 

[jingsmonty]

Does anyone know why all the 'classic' sets seem to only have 4 coaches? I thought the original timetable would have seen some refurbished 5-coach sets in service by the end of the year, so surely (some of) the necessary work has been done to accommodate these eg. at depots?

The infrastructure work hasn't been completed yet (for example, lengthening the platforms at Glasgow QS). Nothing much has happened at Inverness either, apart from clearing out the old motorail sidings for the Caledonian Sleeper to be stabled in (frees up Platform 2).

 

[Highland37]

Presuming...that the classic sets are equally as reliable as a 170, will Scotrail have enough sets in place to operate the new timetable once the 170s due to go south have departed?

 

[JohnMcL7]

The infrastructure work hasn't been completed yet (for example, lengthening the platforms at Glasgow QS). Nothing much has happened at Inverness either, apart from clearing out the old motorail sidings for the Caledonian Sleeper to be stabled in (frees up Platform 2).

Is there any other work planned for Inverness?

 

[Stoney1979]

Presuming...that the classic sets are equally as reliable as a 170, will Scotrail have enough sets in place to operate the new timetable once the 170s due to go south have departed?

What, or where, is the evidence about how reliable 170s are?

Looking into my crystal ball I can see any failures of any HST, refurbished or otherwise, being immediately under the microscope. However, without valid data about how the 170s have performed on the same routes over a reasonable period of time (say, 6 months) it will be impossible to objectively measure the success, or otherwise, of the HSTs. Those who think it's all a bad idea will select what news or stats they need to support their prejudice, and of course ditto for those who think the HSTs are a good idea.

 

[Wst71Pa2]

Had one 170 haemorrage all its oil and one blow a turbo in the last 6 months, contrast that to the events of the training sets and the refurb set.. doesn't take much calculating

 

[43096]

What, or where, is the evidence about how reliable 170s are?

Looking into my crystal ball I can see any failures of any HST, refurbished or otherwise, being immediately under the microscope. However, without valid data about how the 170s have performed on the same routes over a reasonable period of time (say, 6 months) it will be impossible to objectively measure the success, or otherwise, of the HSTs. Those who think it's all a bad idea will select what news or stats they need to support their prejudice, and of course ditto for those who think the HSTs are a good idea.

Just to do the comparison, admittedly using data that is 12 months old (from Modern Railways in January):
ScotRail 170s 13,319 MTIN
GWR HSTs 6,578 MTIN

 

[Highland37]

Just to do the comparison, admittedly using data that is 12 months old (from Modern Railways in January):
ScotRail 170s 13,319 MTIN
GWR HSTs 6,578 MTIN

I wasn't meaning to start a debate on which is more reliable. You have answered that.

My question was about numbers of HSTs available leaving aside reliability.

Will they have enough to operate the timetable?

Where can we see a copy of the new timetable?

 

[chuff chuff]

Apparently there's meant to be 12/13 sets to work the ten needed day to day.And no sight nor sound of the next refurbished set.

 

[Highland37]

Thanks. I found the draft timetables here: https://www.scotrail.co.uk/rail-improvements-highlands

Wabtec are a shambles and it's not looking good for the HSTs now as they probably will never be fully delivered a fleet based on the current rate of delivery.

 

[43096]

Apparently there's meant to be 12/13 sets to work the ten needed day to day.And no sight nor sound of the next refurbished set.

Actually, there is sight of it. There have been reports of completed ScotRail vehicles being shunted around at Doncaster. Power cars 43031/152 are at Wabtec, presumably to assist with testing and also as a means of moving the next set north.

 

[Highland37]

Given the huge delays to date, reports and presumptions are not that reassuring.

If you look at the Scotrail website, journeys from about the 11th of January have the following warning added: "
Unconfirmed timetable
We cannot confirm whether some of the journeys shown here will run. This is because Network Rail haven't fully confirmed the timetables (usually done 12 weeks before travel)"

 

[Stoney1979]

Just to do the comparison, admittedly using data that is 12 months old (from Modern Railways in January):
ScotRail 170s 13,319 MTIN
GWR HSTs 6,578 MTIN

Thanks, that's probably as good as it gets. Doesn't bode well at first look.

 

[BRX]

Thanks, that's probably as good as it gets. Doesn't bode well at first look.

At risk of perpetuating the groundhog day nature of this thread...as others have pointed out previously they will be subject to a rather different type of usage on scotrail services compared to what they were doing on GWR, so those numbers may or may not be meaningful.

 

[jingsmonty]

Is there any other work planned for Inverness?

To be honest - I don't know....I know there will be a lack of storage space for sets (particularly the 5 car sets proposed in the future).

 

[Journeyman]

Presuming...that the classic sets are equally as reliable as a 170, will Scotrail have enough sets in place to operate the new timetable once the 170s due to go south have departed?

According to MTIN stats, the unrefurbished sets are far less reliable than 170s.

 

[Journeyman]

At risk of perpetuating the groundhog day nature of this thread...as others have pointed out previously they will be subject to a rather different type of usage on scotrail services compared to what they were doing on GWR, so those numbers may or may not be meaningful.

They're not going to magically become twice as reliable, though. You might get a marginal improvement, but it certainly won't be by much.

 

[theblackwatch]

There was a move of 5 coaches Ely-Haymarket on Monday with 43144/147. Does anyone know the coach identities please?

 

[Railperf]

They're not going to magically become twice as reliable, though. You might get a marginal improvement, but it certainly won't be by much.

I imagine the diagrams may look easy in comparison with what they were doing on gwr, but the Scottish routes that they will be used on will demand lots of acceleration and braking to various speed limits. I am sure I have read somewhere that the Edinburgh to Aberdeen route has some very demanding sections of track where are the speed limits change more frequently than anywhere else on the network with sections of 90 and 100 mph running. And also would also depend on the maintenance regime. There is an unconfirmed feeling that gwr hsts are not getting the maintenance that they normally would due to the introduction of class 800's. I don't have the latest figures to hand but am I right in believing the LNER HSTs have a better miles per casualty ratio which suggests they are being maintained better? How does that compare to the class 170 s?

 

[Journeyman]

LNER HSTs - in fact, all of them apart from the GWR ones - achieve an MTIN of 10 - 11000. I saw some recent figures on this as part of some work I was doing. This is probably down to a combination of better maintenance, and the upgraded electronics fitted to LNER and CrossCountry power cars. Whatever the reasons, it's significantly better than the GWR ones, and somewhat closer to the sort of reliability the 170s are getting. Neither are particularly impressive, though, given what newer trains can manage, and the somewhat miraculous results SWT were getting out of their 159s - those things literally never failed, and the reliability figures were so good that most analyses of DMU reliability specifically exclude them!

GWR HST reliability appears to have been poor for some time, and isn't just due to the 800 introduction.

 

[gingertom]

LNER HSTs - in fact, all of them apart from the GWR ones - achieve an MTIN of 10 - 11000. I saw some recent figures on this as part of some work I was doing. This is probably down to a combination of better maintenance, and the upgraded electronics fitted to LNER and CrossCountry power cars. Whatever the reasons, it's significantly better than the GWR ones, and somewhat closer to the sort of reliability the 170s are getting. Neither are particularly impressive, though, given what newer trains can manage, and the somewhat miraculous results SWT were getting out of their 159s - those things literally never failed, and the reliability figures were so good that most analyses of DMU reliability specifically exclude them!

GWR HST reliability appears to have been poor for some time, and isn't just due to the 800 introduction.

is the lack of reliability anything to do with the "wrong" traction motors?

I've done some simple physics on the shortened sets and compared with a 2+8/9. Very roughly a short set at 100mph has 1/2 the kinetic energy of a 2+9 at 125mph so all things being equal (they aren't but is close enough) the short sets will be at full power for about half the time to get up to speed. There's any more stop-starts on the Scottish routes though, so there will be many more shorter bursts of power instead of a few long bursts. They aren't going to get the easy life being predicted, but I'm sure they will cope.

 

[43096]

LNER HSTs - in fact, all of them apart from the GWR ones - achieve an MTIN of 10 - 11000. I saw some recent figures on this as part of some work I was doing. This is probably down to a combination of better maintenance, and the upgraded electronics fitted to LNER and CrossCountry power cars. Whatever the reasons, it's significantly better than the GWR ones, and somewhat closer to the sort of reliability the 170s are getting. Neither are particularly impressive, though, given what newer trains can manage, and the somewhat miraculous results SWT were getting out of their 159s - those things literally never failed, and the reliability figures were so good that most analyses of DMU reliability specifically exclude them!

GWR HST reliability appears to have been poor for some time, and isn't just due to the 800 introduction.

GWR HST reliability has been poor from way back. In fact, the re-power programme has effectively had no impact on reliability - it's pretty much where it was from before the project started. This is unlike the other operators, where reliability has improved.

It's not just HSTs with GWR that are poor. In the last Golden Spanners they also had the worst performing 150 fleet, worst 158 fleet (and they were the worst two Sprinter fleets nationally) and worst Electrostar fleet. Not only that, but most of them had got worse from the previous year.

So what did WorstGroup do? They appointed the Engineering Director who had overseen this shambles to be MD of SWR. Guess what happened next...

 

[Journeyman]

is the lack of reliability anything to do with the "wrong" traction motors?

It could be, but there's a lot of factors involved, and I don't know enough about them to give you a very informed analysis.

I've done some simple physics on the shortened sets and compared with a 2+8/9. Very roughly a short set at 100mph has 1/2 the kinetic energy of a 2+9 at 125mph so all things being equal (they aren't but is close enough) the short sets will be at full power for about half the time to get up to speed. There's any more stop-starts on the Scottish routes though, so there will be many more shorter bursts of power instead of a few long bursts. They aren't going to get the easy life being predicted, but I'm sure they will cope.

Again, there's a lot of factors involved. Are conditions on the Highland Main Line anything like those you'd find in Devon and Cornwall? Are the speeds and gradients similar?

 

[Journeyman]

So what did WorstGroup do? They appointed the Engineering Director who had overseen this shambles to be MD of SWR. Guess what happened next...

You'll notice I referred to SWT Class 159 reliability...

 

[43096]

You'll notice I referred to SWT Class 159 reliability...

I did indeed notice that! It's a very important distinction.

 

[gingertom]

is the lack of reliability anything to do with the "wrong" traction motors?

I've done some simple physics on the shortened sets and compared with a 2+8/9. Very roughly a short set at 100mph has 1/2 the kinetic energy of a 2+9 at 125mph so all things being equal (they aren't but is close enough) the short sets will be at full power for about half the time to get up to speed. There's any more stop-starts on the Scottish routes though, so there will be many more shorter bursts of power instead of a few long bursts. They aren't going to get the easy life being predicted, but I'm sure they will cope.

hopefully running at 100mph for short spells instead of hours of 125mph will help. Wait and see.