Sorry I missed this before (it sounds like we actually agree on quite a bit, politically, from the rest of your post).
No worries! And yes, it appears we do, aside from very differing views on Brexit.
I suppose I see the Irish border issue as a small bump in the road to the wider Brexit process which has been blown out of all proportion. It’s being talked up by remainers who are desperate to exaggerate anything they think is a disadvantage of leaving the EU.
With respect, I don’t think it’s something that’s being talked up by remainers – it’s a problem that requires a solution if the UK wants to leave the customs union. If anything it’s Brexiters who are underestimating the importance of it.
It’s no secret that I’m fully against Brexit but I’m very cautious to ensure that my remain position doesn’t cloud my judgement of reality. I’m now most interested in the practicalities of Brexit and when it comes to the Irish border, outside of remaining in the EU there are three options that I can see:
- Leave the EU but remain in the single market and customs union – the soft Brexit option.
- Apply a hard border with both UK and Irish customs checks. It’s likely that cars could just be waved through with freight stopped and checked. This is possible, but it would require significant infrastructure to be built and it’s likely to stir up dissident republican activity which would be highly undesirable. It’s also highly unlikely that the infrastructure would be in place before the 2022 general election and until it is completed we’d need to continue to follow EU regulations without any say in making them.
- Have an internal customs border between NI and the rest of the UK. There is zero chance of this happening whilst the DUP hold the balance of power at Westminster, but it could potentially be applied by a future majority UK government. That’s easier said than done though and it’s likely to stir up dissident unionist activity which again would be highly undesirable.
It’s an important issue for the region but it relates to one small corner of the UK. My prefered way of dealing with it would be to cede NI back to the ROI. Absent that I’m sure something can be thrashed out.
I appreciate that ceding NI to the ROI would be your preference but that isn’t going to happen any time soon and certainly not before Brexit. Therefore, the reality is that there is a major land border that the UK, ROI and EU are going to need to find a solution to before the UK can diverge from EU regulations.
Not for me to say what as I’m not a political expert, nor an expert in the history of NI/ROI, but it shouldn’t be beyond the wit of man for those who experts in these matters to work something out?!
Well it’s one thing that I was hoping the leading Brexiters would have developed a plan for! This is the first time in over 200 years we’ll require some form of managed border between the UK and ROI and none of the main Brexiters have come up with any form of realistic solution:
Johnson, Gove, Davis, Cash and Redwood all believe that a technical solution is possible. I’m very sceptical of that being the case but even if it is, it’s going to be at the R&D stage and realistically probably over a decade away from being implemented. And until it’s ready, we’d need to continue following EU regulations.
Bone and Hoey believe that if the Irish/EU want to install a border then let them and we’ll just keep our side open. That’s utterly ludicrous and we’d be a laughing stock on the international stage, the complete antithesis of “taking back control”.
Stuart and Carswell haven’t stated any kind of solution.
Rees-Mogg does at least admit that some form of checks would be necessary but hasn’t provided any concrete plans on how they’d be undertaken.
And Farage has the most insane idea of all:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/present...farage-simple-response-irish-border-question/
There are so many flaws in that plan I could be typing all night but in a nutshell his solution would be catastrophic for the UK economy but brilliant for the Irish. Basically, any manufacturing firm that wanted to trade with both the UK and EU markets could move to Ireland and have a best of both world’s solution. The Irish government who have a history of enticing corporations to be based there would even likely encourage it with special corporation tax rates, capital assistance and relocation support for both industry and employees.
Do you agree that it should be the leading Brexiters who should be coming up with realistic solutions?
What a pity that, thanks to Theresa May’s political incompetence, we are lumbered with a weak and divided government in coalition with the DUP, so the issue is loomimg far larger than it should.
If a case study on how not to run a general election campaign was ever required, then May’s 2017 campaign would fit the bill perfectly – a true shambles. It doesn’t negate the fact that the Irish border is a major barrier that needs resolving if Brexit is going to happen in the fashion hard-line Brexiters wish though.
Probably an even bigger issue than the Irish border is the one between our southern seaports/the Channel Tunnel and France. Analysis has shown that at Dover alone they’ll be permanent tailbacks of 25-30 miles if each freight vehicle is held up by an extra two minutes – a conservative estimate considering that although the border is already “hard” it’s about to get a damn sight “harder” as a result of Brexit.
Under the Le Touquet treaty the French carry out immigration/customs checks on British soil so it’s not as though we can just wave them through either. We could pull out of the Le Touquet agreement but if we were to do that it’d seriously impact our ability to crack down on illegal immigration because the British checks on French soil would cease to exist. In that event a future “jungle” forming in the south east of England would become a very realistic possibility.
Again, there’s no leading Brexiter who has come up with a workable solution to this other major problem.