East-West Rail (EWR): Consultation updates [not speculation]

[Railwaysceptic]

to be honest: i don't really care about the route from Bedford to Cambridge. I am not sure it will be built.

Neither am I. To answer post 1947, from Bedford to Cambridge is not an automatic success story. It's most unlikely ever to generate enough custom to justify the enormous expense of the new build.

 

[camflyer]

Well we could try the fact that it's not in London (or Wales or Scotland) and that from the 1980s until fairly recently, ministers kept insisting the project was a matter for the multiple local authorities scattered along the route, not that it would give them any money to progress it. Then once the Government had taken an interest, the DfT seems unable to stop sticking its oar in.

In France or Germany, the whole thing would have been driven along by two or three large regional authorities that do not have the central government breathing down their necks all the time and with its hands on the purse strings, as happens in England.

Plus you get a new transport minister virtually every year so they hardly get time to get to grips with their brief before being moved to another post.

 

[si404]

Can someone please explain to me why, if the Oxford-Milton Keynes-Cambridge axis is the tremendous, self-evident economic success story we are always being told about, it has not generated sufficient funds to re-open a railway line ?

Because not only do the local governments along the route not have great fundraising powers, and then from what they do raise central government takes a lot of it to give to other local governments out of redistribution and economic subsidy reasons.

Add in, on top of those ideological Labour cuts that got bad from about 2005 onwards, electorates that don't want to raise regressive council tax and penalise the poorer residents of their communities who struggle to live in this expensive area anyway. This meant that there was nothing much to cut in 2010, as it already had been. 7 of the 10 lowest-funded schools are in Bucks (including the lowest).

Bucks CC (one of the key movers for E-W Rail and Expressway) can barely afford to fund basic services properly - they have no money for investment. Developers do, hence why the plan is for a million more houses along the corridor in order to reclaim the investment via fare box.

It also doesn't help that - without any formal regional body with financial and planning powers - either Central Government has to take the lead (as it is doing, but with the typical Whitehall apathy to any infrastructure project - even London ones), or Local Governments do. Phase 1 (Bicester/Aylesbury - MK) is almost all in Bucks CC's patch, but the prime beneficiary is MK and Oxfordshire - either a deal is done to work out funding (such as the one that scuppered the Met line Extension in Watford), or Bucks pays more than its fair share. Neither are conductive to getting something built.

 

[deltic08]

to be honest: i don't really care about the route from Bedford to Cambridge. I am not sure it will be built.

Always the pessimist. There are plenty who do care.

 

[Verulamius]

A new regional body has been established, http://www.englandseconomicheartland.com/Pages/home.aspx which is supporting East West Rail.

I do not think that it has much finance itself though.

 

[edwin_m]

Neither am I. To answer post 1947, from Bedford to Cambridge is not an automatic success story. It's most unlikely ever to generate enough custom to justify the enormous expense of the new build.

Revenue is highly unlikely to justify any new rail project (or indeed any road project except a toll road in highly favourable circumstances). The justification for the public sector to spend is based on the wider benefits of doing so. This could arise from things like providing commutable links between the new housing and centres where there are more jobs than people, and facilitating travel between businesses in different areas allowing them to work together better and perhaps achieve things they couldn't achieve separately (agglomeration benefits). It might be possible to build new lines on a commercial basis by capturing some of the increase in land value, as the Metropolitan sort of did with Metroland, but difficult to see how this could be made to work today without draconican powers of compulsory purchase.

 

[ac6000cw]

I'd be tempted to be bold - take a large leaf out of the 'Milton Keynes' book, and create a 'Development Corporation' to plan, develop (and oversee for a while afterwards), both the new communities and the new infrastructure to support it. So it would become responsible for (at least) the Bed-Cam 'arc' evolution - rail, roads, housing, education, leisure, business development etc.

Personally, rather than trying to turn Cambridge into something much larger that I don't think it could withstand (without wrecking it), I'd create a 'Milton Keynes' Mk2 i.e. a properly planned (on a city scale, not just a town) community where EWR would cross the ECML and the A1/new E-W road. That would give it great connectivity in all directions and might create a north-south hi-tech corridor as well i.e. Stevenage-new city-Huntingdon-Peterborough - to generate a hi-tech 'cross' with the new city at the centre.

Something on that scale ought to be able to attract the best talent to work for the 'Development Corporation' (which is what you need, along with giving them the power to *make* it happen).

But do we have any politicians bold enough to do something like that?

 

[DarloRich]

Always the pessimist. There are plenty who do care.

No. Merely logical. We have a potentially massive economic shock coming our way in the form of our departure from the EU. A railway with no real funding and no real route is an obvious and easy cut should times become hard.

MK - Oxford I think will happen. Bedford - Oxford should happen. Bedford - Cambridge I hope will happen. That's the difference

EDIT - and for the avoidance of doubt that doesn't mean I don't think this line should happen. I am just not convinced we will see it delivered to its fullest extent.

 

[The Ham]

As developments happen near the line (once it is built) they could be asked to fund public transport, to this end a few thousand homes could pay off a couple of million of pounds of the original investment.

 

[gordonthemoron]

building a new City where E-W crosses HS2, with an HS2 station, would be a good idea too

 

[B&I]

building a new City where E-W crosses HS2, with an HS2 station, would be a good idea too

Properly investing in, re-populating, and reviving the economies of the perfectly good cities we have outside the south east might not be a bad idea either

 

[cle]

No. Merely logical. We have a potentially massive economic shock coming our way in the form of our departure from the EU. A railway with no real funding and no real route is an obvious and easy cut should times become hard.

MK - Oxford I think will happen. Bedford - Oxford should happen. Bedford - Cambridge I hope will happen. That's the difference

EDIT - and for the avoidance of doubt that doesn't mean I don't think this line should happen. I am just not convinced we will see it delivered to its fullest extent.

It’s already been de-wired, slowed down, shortened and so on.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it only got to MK, but without a Bletchley station up top. That and possibly the Aylesbury shuttle being the only services.

It could run to Bedford without the Bletchley stop too, but that would be very odd considering Marston. So possibly that could get extended to MK. Would 3tph terminating at MKC be workable? Perhaps one could be sent to Northampton, possibly the Reading (and with a bi-mode to be wired at either end).

 

[Bald Rick]

As developments happen near the line (once it is built) they could be asked to fund public transport, to this end a few thousand homes could pay off a couple of million of pounds of the original investment.

This was how it was supposed to be but the local authorities couldn’t agree.

In London there is exactly this mechanism to fund Crossrail 1, called the Mayors Community Infrastructure Levy (MCIL) and it is to be extended for Crossrail 2 (MCIL 2, if it happens). Every new development in London pays a rate per sq metre, with some exceptions for health, education and charitable development. The rate depends on the London Borough; it is highest in central London and some of boroughs with high development values (eg Richmond), and lower in outer boroughs, eg Croydon. The rates will go up for MCIL 2. An average new flat in Outer London will pay about £1500, a large new flat in Chelsea will pay £10k.

The average annual income for the whole of London over the last 3 years is £120m. This is on the back of around 30,000 new homes pa and of course a large amount of commercial property.

For EW Rail, the rates chargeable would be lower because of property value, and in my opinion the rate of building will also be lower. There will also be a need for such a levy or the developer, to fund other transport infrastructure that new development in London doesn’t need to, principally roads (to access the development at all), and bus provision.

All in, I’d expect an EWR equivalent to MCIL to pull in perhaps £30m-£50m pa. That would support borrowing of around £500m-£800m over 30 years or so. But the relevant local authorities would need to agree and commit to the levy for that time, and it may well need primary legislation to enable.

 

[RT4038]

Properly investing in, re-populating, and reviving the economies of the perfectly good cities we have outside the south east might not be a bad idea either

Could be, but probably not. If they were perfectly good, they wouldn't need reviving!

 

[Lurpi]

to be honest: i don't really care about the route from Bedford to Cambridge. I am not sure it will be built.

The central section of East West Rail (which incidentally is Bletchley-Cambridge) will be built as long as the momentum from government persists. According to May's Modern Railways, Chris Grayling regards it as his pet project. At this moment, the new delivery body, East West Railway Company, is hiring staff and has also formally taken over sponsorship of the central section. So I think we can be fairly confident at this stage that it will be built. That may change in future, but it's crazy to try and predict the unpredictable. It was also promised by the Chancellor in the autumn 2017 Budget.

I'd be tempted to be bold - take a large leaf out of the 'Milton Keynes' book, and create a 'Development Corporation' to plan, develop (and oversee for a while afterwards), both the new communities and the new infrastructure to support it. So it would become responsible for (at least) the Bed-Cam 'arc' evolution - rail, roads, housing, education, leisure, business development etc.
(...) But do we have any politicians bold enough to do something like that?

A development corporation was one of the options presented by the National Infrastructure Commission in their November 2017 report on the Oxford-Milton Keynes-Cambridge corridor. It says:

Recommendation 2b: Government should:
work with local authorities to establish appropriate delivery vehicles for new and expanded settlements across the arc, considering the role that can be played by locally accountable Development Corporations, Mayoral Development Corporations, the Homes and Communities Agency and Urban Development Corporations.
establish New Town Development Corporations to deliver larger new and expanded settlements.

As developments happen near the line (once it is built) they could be asked to fund public transport, to this end a few thousand homes could pay off a couple of million of pounds of the original investment.

All in, I’d expect an EWR equivalent to MCIL to pull in perhaps £30m-£50m pa. That would support borrowing of around £500m-£800m over 30 years or so. But the relevant local authorities would need to agree and commit to the levy for that time, and it may well need primary legislation to enable.

Also in November 2017 (funny, that), Rob Brighouse, the chairman of East West Railway Company, was quoted in Construction News as follows:

Mr Brighouse said that if East West Rail could capture 20 per cent of the uplift on 100,000 lots of land along the route with a value of £100,000 each, then that would “virtually pay for our railway”.

That makes £2 billion. Possibly a little optimistic, but even if he gets a quarter of that, it'll be quite an achievement for outside London - developer cash only paid for a little over £1.2 billion of Crossrail's £14.8 billion cost.

 

[B&I]

Could be, but probably not. If they were perfectly good, they wouldn't need reviving!

Maybe someone should try it one day. The results of not concentrating all investment and economic development in a single city might prove startling

 

[DarloRich]

The central section of East West Rail (which incidentally is Bletchley-Cambridge) will be built as long as the momentum from government persists. According to May's Modern Railways, Chris Grayling regards it as his pet project. At this moment, the new delivery body, East West Railway Company, is hiring staff and has also formally taken over sponsorship of the central section. So I think we can be fairly confident at this stage that it will be built. That may change in future, but it's crazy to try and predict the unpredictable. It was also promised by the Chancellor in the autumn 2017 Budget.

Governmental promises are only promises when it is too late for them to turn back

As I said I HOPE the line is built. It SHOULD be built.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

Revenue is highly unlikely to justify any new rail project (or indeed any road project except a toll road in highly favourable circumstances). The justification for the public sector to spend is based on the wider benefits of doing so. This could arise from things like providing commutable links between the new housing and centres where there are more jobs than people, and facilitating travel between businesses in different areas allowing them to work together better and perhaps achieve things they couldn't achieve separately (agglomeration benefits). It might be possible to build new lines on a commercial basis by capturing some of the increase in land value, as the Metropolitan sort of did with Metroland, but difficult to see how this could be made to work today without draconican powers of compulsory purchase.

I don't disagree with you, but I think before a new build railway is given the green light, there needs to be a feet-on-the-ground, realistic assessment of what it is intended to do, whether it is likely to achieve the objectives and the cost to the taxpayer.

At present there is no consensus about the route to be adopted. A declared major objective of this project is greater connectivity, but most mooted plans bypass the main Bedford station. There is much talk about new housing being served but little agreement where the houses will be built. At present the only sure thing about this extension is that it will be mega-expensive.

I will not be surprised if at some point it is decided that this project does not provide value for money.

 

[eastdyke]

The TWA Order for the Western Section - Network Rail (East West Rail Bicester to Bedford Improvements) Order - was submitted by NR on 27th July and placed on the Gov. website the following day. Objections, representations and letters of support can be made by anyone until 7 September 2018.
The suite of documents and plans (lots as would be expected) have an aura about them of having been rushed into print. It's as though an eBay type mantra exists of 'get it out there and fix it on the fly'.
My evidence of this includes that the documents to the TWAO have actually been changed since 27th July. For example, the overall document schedule #01 was last modified 30th July, the draft order #NR02 was last modified 21st August and the #NR15 Planning Drawings route sections 2A and 2B were last modified yesterday (30th August). There are many others with modified dates.

I am not in any way knowledgeable of the legal standing but surely changes to any key document would require the process to be re-started?

 

[jimm]

The TWA Order for the Western Section - Network Rail (East West Rail Bicester to Bedford Improvements) Order - was submitted by NR on 27th July and placed on the Gov. website the following day. Objections, representations and letters of support can be made by anyone until 7 September 2018.
The suite of documents and plans (lots as would be expected) have an aura about them of having been rushed into print. It's as though an eBay type mantra exists of 'get it out there and fix it on the fly'.
My evidence of this includes that the documents to the TWAO have actually been changed since 27th July. For example, the overall document schedule #01 was last modified 30th July, the draft order #NR02 was last modified 21st August and the #NR15 Planning Drawings route sections 2A and 2B were last modified yesterday (30th August). There are many others with modified dates.

I am not in any way knowledgeable of the legal standing but surely changes to any key document would require the process to be re-started?

Not if the changes are minor, which is most likely the case here, and while the period for comments is still open.

 

[eastdyke]

Not if the changes are minor, which is most likely the case here, and while the period for comments is still open.

Thanks OK!
Minor? = typo, syntax, affecting 1 fence, 1 house, 1 bridge, 1 level crossing, or something more?
Documents don't seem to be annotated with changes made.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Is there a link to where this consultation is, in case anyone here wants to respond to it?

 

[route:oxford]

My evidence of this includes that the documents to the TWAO have actually been changed since 27th July. For example, the overall document schedule #01 was last modified 30th July, the draft order #NR02 was last modified 21st August and the #NR15 Planning Drawings route sections 2A and 2B were last modified yesterday (30th August). There are many others with modified dates.

Your "evidence" being that the revision dates are clearly marked?

It's not exactly cloak and dagger is it?

I am not in any way knowledgeable of the legal standing

You're not wrong there.

but surely changes to any key document would require the process to be re-started?

Nothing would ever happen in this country if that were the case. There would be nothing but earthy types, out with measuring tapes protesting that a stream had shifted course by 30cm, or a farmer had shortened a dyke and everything had to be reprinted.

 

[swt_passenger]

The central section of East West Rail (which incidentally is Bletchley-Cambridge) will be built as long as the momentum from government persists.

Central section = “Bedford to Cambridge” according to all the sources I just checked.

 

[eastdyke]

Is there a link to where this consultation is, in case anyone here wants to respond to it?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...rd-improvements-transport-and-works-act-order

The consultation times are in the past. The above links to the application by Network Rail for approval to the enabling legislation - the Transport and Works Act Order. Objectors and supporters have to 7 Sep. to lodge.

There will (almost) inevitably need to be a Public Inquiry to enable scrutiny of the proposals.

My experience is that you need to be both patient and persistent to get documents to load.
Edits: typos and syntax.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Thanks eastdyke!

 

[eastdyke]

Your "evidence" being that the revision dates are clearly marked?
It's not exactly cloak and dagger is it?

Thank you. The documents etc. are not 'lightweight' and without any annotation it is not possible, short of reading everything, to determine what has changed. And there are lots of changes.

Nothing would ever happen in this country if that were the case. There would be nothing but earthy types, out with measuring tapes protesting that a stream had shifted course by 30cm, or a farmer had shortened a dyke and everything had to be reprinted.

That is somewhat fatuous. There is insufficient detail to actually be able do that.

 

[Andyjs247]

Here are the hard copy documents from Bicester library. As Eastdyke says they are not exactly lightweight; and if you wanted a paper copy it might cost up to £5000! I don’t think that would include the cost of additional furniture

One important change I did notice is that the initial train service proposed now is 2tph Oxford to MK (previously 1tph). Still 1tph Oxford to Bedford and 1tph MK to Aylesbury (previously Marylebone was specified).

 

[jimm]

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...rd-improvements-transport-and-works-act-order

There will (almost) inevitably need to be a Public Inquiry to enable scrutiny of the proposals.

There's nothing 'almost' about it. There will be a public inquiry on a TWA Order application of this scale.

There are clear procedures laid out for what happens when the applicant wants to make changes after the application has gone in. If there was anything that went above and beyond a series of conditions set out on Page 57 in the document below, then the DfT would restart the process. They haven't, so I think that tells us that the revisions are indeed in the minor category.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ttachment_data/file/4502/procedures-guide.pdf

 

[eastdyke]

There's nothing 'almost' about it. There will be a public inquiry on a TWA Order application of this scale.

There are clear procedures laid out for what happens when the applicant wants to make changes after the application has gone in. If there was anything that went above and beyond a series of conditions set out on Page 57 in the document below, then the DfT would restart the process. They haven't, so I think that tells us that the revisions are indeed in the minor category.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ttachment_data/file/4502/procedures-guide.pdf

Thank you very much! That clears up my question.
As to my use of '(almost) inevitably', well that was there for those who might argue that it is not legally written that there is always to be a PI following a TWAO application.