EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[northwichcat]

Don't forget the poll tax riots.

 

[HSTEd]

Many of today’s older people will have seen the state to which this country had degenerated by 1979, as a result of left-wing governments. IMF anyone?

Interestingly real GDP growth in the 70s (and even 1979) was higher than managed throughout the Thatcher era.

The Thatcher 'revolution' was achieved by handing the baby boomers all the assets that had been held in trust for them by their parents and squandering the wealth on unearned luxury.
Now, finding that they have eaten the seed corn, they demand that their children be reduced to penury to pay for their unearned luxury to continue all the way to the end of their life.

The problem with Thatcherism is you eventually run out of public assets to sell.

 

[Intercity 225]

The reason I keep referring to 2022 is because by the time of the next election it will have been six years since the referendum and the following is likely to have caused a shift in the public opinion against Brexit:

They'll be c.4,500,000 young voters who will be eligible to partake in an election for the first time. Widespread analysis shows that these are more likely to be pro-European (c.75% in favour of EU membership).

• Turnout in this age group is c.60% - c.2,025,000 likely supporting EU membership and c.675,000 likely supporting Brexit
• This equates to an extra c.1,350,000 the 2022 electorate likely being in favour of EU membership

Sadly c.2,750,000 of older voters who took part in the referendum will also have passed away between 2016-2022. Widespread analysis shows that these would have been more likely to have been pro-Brexit (c.65% in favour of Brexit).

• Turnout in this category is c.80% - c.770,000 likely supporting EU membership and c.1,430,000 likely supporting Brexit during the 2016 referendum
• This equates to a further c.660,000 who would have likely voted in favour of Brexit in 2016 sadly no longer being with us.

Now there are obviously some estimations/assumptions in the above and it goes without saying that I hope I've over-estimated the number of older voters who will have sadly passed away!! I have however based the above on reasonable statistics available - sources used for those interested:

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election/

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages

https://www.dyingmatters.org/page/frequently-asked-questions

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

The reason I've done that top level analysis is because I can see the 2022 general election becoming essentially a proxy second referendum with a major party having shifted to support EU membership. I think it's inevitable that the transition period will be extended until 2022 because I can't see how we can possibly get all the infrastructure in place in order for us to have diverged from EU regulations beforehand. That means it would be far easier in 2022 to rejoin the EU than it would to continue going our own way and the change in national demographics means that a return to EU membership is likely to be the "will of the people" at the time.

So my question to Brexiters is, what's the solution?

How do you realistically resolve the Irish border issue and prevent our port cities/surrounding areas becoming permanently gridlocked within the next four years?

Because unless you can, I think it's realistic that Brexit will completely unravel in 2022.

I do tire of this simplistic approach to age related voting intentions.

Do people really believe that EVERY OAP Tory was born that colour? There are older members of the Tory party who were left wing firebrands in their youth but who changed their views as they matured and learned about life.

One million youngsters may enter the voting chain, and one million OAPs may shuffle off this mortal coil, but in the middle, one million voters will mature and change their views.

With respect, you're the one who's simplified it by saying one million may enter the voting chain whilst one million may shuffle off their mortal coil when in reality more will become eligible to vote than those who will have passed on by c.440k per year - I did the maths already if you'd care to look at my previous post in more detail.

I will agree with you that there is an abundance of evidence that shows people tend to become more right-wing as they get older (this doesn't necessarily mean they'll become more anti-EU with age, it's too early to tell on that front) but to avoid muddying the water let's assume that's also the case. Regardless of people changing their views as they get older, the below is a rough forecast of pro/anti EU sentiment within the British electorate over the forthcoming elections based on my earlier analysis. Obviously there's some margin for error especially on the 2027 estimate.

2016 Referendum: 17,410,742 Leave (51.9%)/ 16,141,241 Remain (48.1%)
2022 Election Estimate: 16,656,000 Anti-EU (48.9%)/ 17,396,000 Pro-EU (51.1%)
2027 Election Estimate: 15,901,000 Anti-EU (46.0%)/ 18,651,000 Pro-EU (54.0%)

The reason I've done that extra analysis is to help illustrate that the sands of time are likely to shift further and further away from Brexit purely down to the changing of the national demographics - i.e more youth coming through than the elderly passing away. The above also factors in the youth voting at c.60% and the elderly at c.80%.

I fully accept that Brexiters have won a mandate and they deserve the opportunity to attempt their plans, the point I'm making is that the dithering needs to stop and they need to get cracking because they only have a finite amount of time before their "will of the people" claim loses all relevance. If it goes on for over a decade they've blown it completely and for the reasons I outlined in my previous post probably if they leave it longer than 2022.

As a Brexiter, what are your views on the best way forward? I'm particularly interested in how you'd solve the Irish border and our port cities/surrounding areas gridlock problems.

 

[Senex]

Don't forget the poll tax riots.

Stirred up by Labour and the rest of the Left — it was a much fairer tax than the dreadful Council Tax (even if that is marginally better than the Rates).

 

[Intercity 225]

I’d just have a proper border between the two parts of Ireland. With a situation where one side of the border has free movement (both goods and people) and the other doesn’t then some kind of border is inevitable. The two parts of Ireland are where they are - one side has chosen to be part of the EU, and the other apparently wishes to be part of the UK and the U.K. has chosen to leave the EU.

As for ports, surely it’s a case of building the necessary infrastructure? We’ve had two years to crack on with that. It’s no different to the customs and immigration checks carried out with movements to and from other parts of the world.

Thank you for your response, for what it's worth I agree with you that a hard border in Ireland is unavoidable if we're going to leave the single market and have our own trading regulations. And yes, our ports would need significant infrastructure to be built in order to carry out the same level of checks we carry out on non-EU traffic purely because of the sheer volume of it. It could be achieved but not without a large amount of disruption to the ports' neighbouring towns/cities and their surrounding areas during the construction period.

Whilst I do think all the above is technically achievable, I think it's highly unlikely the necessary work will be completed in less than four years and during the entirety of the construction period we'll need to continue following EU regulations without any say in making them. That combined with the changing of electoral demographics leads me to believe that Brexit could well unravel come 2022.

 

[northwichcat]

Stirred up by Labour and the rest of the Left — it was a much fairer tax than the dreadful Council Tax (even if that is marginally better than the Rates).

So your idea of 'fair' is a hairdresser paying the same amount of tax as an investment banker (noting that there was no minimum wage back then)? Also, the roll out process was so bad it makes the roll out of Universal Credit look good in comparison - councils couldn't tell who was refusing to pay, who didn't pay because they no longer lived at the address or whether someone had two addresses and got billed twice.

Council tax was rushed through by John Major's government and to get it through quickly houses weren't properly valued which defeated the underlying principle of the scheme. Also it seems Norman Lamont used the changeover as an excuse to 'temporarily' increase VAT to 17.5% while the changeover happened, only not to reduce VAT once council tax was implemented.

 

[Intercity 225]

I accept that your viewpoint is wishing to cancel BREXIT.

But, looking at it objectively, I’m sure you can see why the Lib Dem’s pomised what they did: running on a ticket of unilaterally overriding the 2016 leave result (which over 50% of a huge plebiscite turnout voted for) would destroy any political party under a first past the post GE. They’d alienate all leave voters, and many remain voters would be prioritising other issue.

As it turned out even promising a second vote got the Lib Dems nowhere last year.

Well they were never going to win the election outright and I imagine the number of leave voters voting Lib Dem in 2017 would be very small indeed. As such they'd have been better off going hell for leather on a cancelling Brexit campaign and focussing all their efforts on winning seats that had a high remain percentage. If they'd have done that they could have probably won 20-25 seats in total with a number of them from the Tories. In that event, they'd have held the balance of power and could've entered another coalition with the Conservatives on the condition they'd get their second referendum. It'd have killed the party for good but at least they'd have achieved their primary target in the process.

It's all academic now anyway, I can't imagine Tim Farron being able to spot any form of unique opportunity. Ineptitude personified.

He will certainly remain in post for the foreseeable, although I doubt he has more than one more GE failure in him. At that point the party may indeed split or Corbyn’s successor will prove more moderate and relevant. Corbynism as a political phenomenon will (hopefully) burn itself out in due course. He’s a 1970s relic who isn’t offering anything fresh or new, just the same tired dogmas he subscribed to in the 1970s. As you say he’s actually a brexiteer and is incapable of changing his message. He also isn’t getting any younger!

The starry eyed, idealistic dim-wits who support him have a short attention span and will rapidly lose interest as he continues to blunder from faux pas to faux pas. Even they will eventually realise he’s fundamentally out of his depth and is incapable of delivering the results they are expecting.

I completely agree with this, if he's loses the next GE he's toast but the hard-left will still be running Labour and it's likely another delusional incompetent will take his place. A snap GE was always going to be his best opportunity to win power because it didn't give enough time for the public to properly assess his policies and values - with the full scrutiny of a standard GE campaign he's going to be found out big time.

And yes, the youth will have moved onto something else by then - he somehow became trendy in 2017 but trends very rarely last for five years and he'll be old hat come 2022.

I’d disagree that Johnson is a hard line brexiteer. He’s not a conviction politician: he’s a careerist whose eyes have always been on the top job. His game plan was clearly to go from mayor of London role to a high profile role spearheading the (intended to fail) leave campaign thereby shutting down UKIP and then succeeding Cameron. Sadly for him things turned out rather differently, but he now appears to be biding his time for one last stab at the top job.

And I also fully agree with you regarding Johnson, I should have really referred to him as a "faux hard-line Brexiter". In my original post I was making reference to the current incarnation of Johnson i.e. the version that originated during the referendum campaign.

Overall, UK politics is in a dreadful state of malaise due to weak and incompetent leadership in all the main parties. The country is polarised into left and right and is increasingly divided and angry.

What most concerns me most, as a centre right moderate, are the following plausible scenarios:

- the Tories collapsing and giving Corbyn a decent shot at no 10. 5 years of his lunacy would see this country enjoying second world status;

- Brexit being thwarted, or going badly over the next few years, and paving the way for a smooth talking far right populist party to enter stage left, so to speak, and gaining real traction.

We are living in interesting political times for sure...

We certainly are living in interesting times!

I do however think that whilst significant numbers have polarised left and right within the electorate as a whole there's a huge gaping hole in the middle where I suspect most voters actually feel most comfortable. In my view the winner of the 2022 election will be the party that can appeal most to the centre-left, centre and centre-right voters that aren't currently being well catered for by anyone.

To wrap up, as a forthright Brexiter what are your views on how to solve the Irish border issues? And how do you think we can prevent gridlock around our port towns/cities and their surrounding areas following Brexit?

 

[Howardh]

Family ties? Not wanting the stress and hassle of a move?

Also those at retirement age now are in many cases likely to live somewhere relatively decent. In my road even as recently as the late 1990s it was possible to buy a 6-bed Edwardian semi for £150k. The self-same houses now go for well over a million, with a queue of people lined up to snap up within minutes of going on the market - in many cases ex Londoners wanting out of London for many reasons, largely that they can’t get anything there in a nice area with the desired amount of space.

In turn this is causing housing issues throughout the south-east, which simply doesn’t have the space for widespread housebuilding, nor the space for the infrastructure to serve denser population. Which brings us nearly back to the EU and freedom of movement.

Nobody's forcing anyone to move, but if they want to free up some extra cash, moving northwards is an option.
Oh, and if you think removing FoM will help free up more land, or lower house prices, or both, good luck with that one! Think the best way to relieve housing shortages in the SE is simply to invest in the North, give us the infrastructure, the high-quality jobs and so on making the North a pull and we'll take the hit leaving you guys a bit more space. Think the BBC made a half-hearted effort by moving to Salford...

 

[Howardh]

Don't forget the poll tax riots.

I remember the Trumpton Riots

 

[northwichcat]

I remember the Trumpton Riots

Trumpton riots?!

 

[EM2]

Trumpton riots?!

Oh yeah!
This was even a song about it:

 

[Howardh]

Trumpton riots?!

Those were the ones. Horrific scenes, the police totally unready and outnumbered. Captain Snort didn't have a clue what was coming!

 

[bramling]

Nobody's forcing anyone to move, but if they want to free up some extra cash, moving northwards is an option.
Oh, and if you think removing FoM will help free up more land, or lower house prices, or both, good luck with that one! Think the best way to relieve housing shortages in the SE is simply to invest in the North, give us the infrastructure, the high-quality jobs and so on making the North a pull and we'll take the hit leaving you guys a bit more space. Think the BBC made a half-hearted effort by moving to Salford...

I don’t think there will be a fall in SE house prices, but we should certainly be aiming for a much lesser and slowerrate of increase than has been the case in the last two decades.

I agree that we should be investing in the north. I think that could actually end up being a long-term positive consequence of Brexit.

 

[bramling]

So your idea of 'fair' is a hairdresser paying the same amount of tax as an investment banker (noting that there was no minimum wage back then)? Also, the roll out process was so bad it makes the roll out of Universal Credit look good in comparison - councils couldn't tell who was refusing to pay, who didn't pay because they no longer lived at the address or whether someone had two addresses and got billed twice.

Council tax was rushed through by John Major's government and to get it through quickly houses weren't properly valued which defeated the underlying principle of the scheme. Also it seems Norman Lamont used the changeover as an excuse to 'temporarily' increase VAT to 17.5% while the changeover happened, only not to reduce VAT once council tax was implemented.

I’d have poll tax any day.

I don’t see at all why the value of a house should affect what someone pays. I get sick of subsidising others through council tax yet using less local services than many households.

I’ll make a concession that it’s probably right to have a small element of progressiveness, but only very minimal.

And those who choose to raise large families should certainly pay through the roof.

 

[Senex]

I do however think that whilst significant numbers have polarised left and right within the electorate as a whole there's a huge gaping hole in the middle where I suspect most voters actually feel most comfortable. In my view the winner of the 2022 election will be the party that can appeal most to the centre-left, centre and centre-right voters that aren't currently being well catered for by anyone.

Suppose Labour manages to continue sitting on the fence to and through a Tory achievement of Brexit next year. Then there are possibly three full years for the negative impacts of Brexit to become fully apparent and for people to turn against the Tory for having chosen to create such a mess. The only real alternative in our two-party, first-past-the-post system is Labour, which will appear to have clean hands. Is it not very likely that we shall see Labour back in power under its far-Left leadership (desperately set on trying to create Venezuela in Britain) and a Tory party destroyed for a generation, the electorate having taken revenge on them for doing what they will have done?

 

[Senex]

I’d have poll tax any day.

I don’t see at all why the value of a house should affect what someone pays. I get sick of subsidising others through council tax yet using less local services than many households.

I’ll make a concession that it’s probably right to have a small element of progressiveness, but only very minimal.

And those who choose to raise large families should certainly pay through the roof.

I agree with all that, but would add one more thing. Both the rates and council tax involve the burden of paying up falling on just one person in each household, where they may be several electors. Only one person feels the diret impact of the tax, whilst the others get representation without taxation, which seems to me to be utterly unfair.

 

[northwichcat]

I’d have poll tax any day.

I don’t see at all why the value of a house should affect what someone pays. I get sick of subsidising others through council tax yet using less local services than many households.

I’ll make a concession that it’s probably right to have a small element of progressiveness, but only very minimal.

And those who choose to raise large families should certainly pay through the roof.

Like I suggested already council tax is a bodged system which replaced another bodged system.

Don't forget some services are provided by the council using mainly central government funding which the local authority decides how to spend e.g. schools, while others are provided using money raised through council tax e.g. rubbish collection.

 

[bramling]

I agree with all that, but would add one more thing. Both the rates and council tax involve the burden of paying up falling on just one person in each household, where they may be several electors. Only one person feels the diret impact of the tax, whilst the others get representation without taxation, which seems to me to be utterly unfair.

Yes very much agreed.

This links in rather well with the idea that younger people are more likely to lean to the left, when living at home with mum & dad and not having a tidy three-figure sum to have to pay each month.

 

[bramling]

Suppose Labour manages to continue sitting on the fence to and through a Tory achievement of Brexit next year. Then there are possibly three full years for the negative impacts of Brexit to become fully apparent and for people to turn against the Tory for having chosen to create such a mess. The only real alternative in our two-party, first-past-the-post system is Labour, which will appear to have clean hands. Is it not very likely that we shall see Labour back in power under its far-Left leadership (desperately set on trying to create Venezuela in Britain) and a Tory party destroyed for a generation, the electorate having taken revenge on them for doing what they will have done?

As things stand it’s hard to say what would happen now let along in three years time! The current government seem highly unpopular - and it’s easy to see why that’s the case. But when it comes to the ballot box many people would I think hesitate very hard before putting a cross in a box that they know may well lead to Corbyn becoming PM - if for no other reason than they know their tax bill would be very likely to rise.

I suspect an election now would very much mirror last year’s nomansland result. As for three years time, it depends how Brexit goes.

 

[433N]

Overall, UK politics is in a dreadful state of malaise due to weak and incompetent leadership in all the main parties. The country is polarised into left and right and is increasingly divided and angry.

I think this is a common view BUT I think we should remember that this is exactly what we deserve.

Remember, we had a referendum on PR and the people voted against it. This is sort of ironic because the EU referendum is held up, at least by Brexiteers, as the triumph of democracy since it was one person one vote. Yet it isn't in the silly first-past-the-post system ? Ironically, MEP's are elected by PR ; in my book, a more authentic version of democracy and yet the EU gets tagged as 'undemocratic'.

Okay, I'm left of centre but I would much prefer politics of consensus to the polarisation we have now - although it is best to remember that the country was far more polarised under Thatcher. I don't think, per se, there is anything wrong with coalition governments as govern many European countries with PR. Yet we always get the same guff about meeting your local MP who will represent your interests (except if you are in a constituency that voted Remain) and that 'nothing would get done if we had PR' ; which might well be a blessing in disguise.

And what is all this about 'leadership' ? Theresa May is a good leader, Jeremy Corbyn isn't a good leader. What is a 'good leader' and why do we need 'leading' ?

As I say, the dreadful state that politics is in is all of our own making. Perhaps 'British Democracy' isn't the best in the world.

 

[Intercity 225]

Suppose Labour manages to continue sitting on the fence to and through a Tory achievement of Brexit next year. Then there are possibly three full years for the negative impacts of Brexit to become fully apparent and for people to turn against the Tory for having chosen to create such a mess. The only real alternative in our two-party, first-past-the-post system is Labour, which will appear to have clean hands. Is it not very likely that we shall see Labour back in power under its far-Left leadership (desperately set on trying to create Venezuela in Britain) and a Tory party destroyed for a generation, the electorate having taken revenge on them for doing what they will have done?

I can see the thinking behind your theory but I don't think a far-left Labour victory is very likely as you suggest, the three main reasons being:

• Corbyn is a major problem, he's incredibly popular amongst his core support but once you go beyond those people his appeal drops massively. That's because he is essentially a fringe politician who's found his way into a position he's highly unsuitable for.

• The most damaging economic effects of Brexit won't be felt by 2022 because it's very likely the transition period will be extended until at least this point. Major infrastructure is going to be required to solve the Irish border issues and to ensure our ports can continue to effectively operate and it's going to be a near impossible challenge to complete all that before the next election. We will technically leave the EU in March 2019 but will remain a de facto member until at least 2022.

• As a result of the point above, I can see the 2022 general election becoming essentially a proxy second referendum with a major party having shifted to support EU membership. That's because we won't yet have diverged from EU regulations and therefore it would be far easier to rejoin the EU in 2022 than it would to continue going our own way. There will also have been a change in our national demographics that means that a return to EU membership is likely to be favoured by the majority of the electorate at that stage.

So in summary, I do think it's possible that Labour could win power in 2022 if they were to switch to a pro-EU position, but I certainly wouldn't class it as very likely.

A couple of pages back I expanded on my theory, it's quite a long read but I've copied it below in case you're interested:

• I think the Lib Dems will soon cease to exist and have essentially been a dead party since they reneged on some key policies upon entering coalition with the Conservatives. This stunt they're pulling about potentially installing a non-MP as leader is a desperate attempt to remain relevant and interesting in a country where they're now an insignificance. I'm a passionate pro-European but I couldn't bring myself to vote for the Lib Dems during the last election and there's a very sizeable chunk of the electorate who will have thought similarly.

• In addition, the Lib Dems didn't stand on a proper anti-Brexit ticket in 2017 - they just promised a second referendum. If they'd stood on cancelling Brexit altogether they'd have won a huge number of votes including my own. The fact they didn't do this showed they had embarrassingly weak leadership and were unable to spot opportunities. For me that makes them unsuitable for power and again, a very large number of voters will have felt similar.

• Both the Conservatives and Labour are on the verge of civil war and for the first time in my lifetime it's a possibility that one or both parties could actually split. The pro-Europeans in the Conservatives and the centrists within Labour have far more in common with one another than they do with their respective leaderships - this provides an opening for them to work together unless their respective leaderships change to positions closer to their own. Some big ifs in there but nothing too far fetched.

• The Labour membership has been overrun by the hard-left and the youth and that means Corbyn will remain in post for the foreseeable future. Despite his claims before the referendum, he is in reality a Brexiter and will resist all attempts to move Labour to a pro-EU position however the youth in the party who he relies on for support may push him to a point where he needs to concede in order to keep them on board.

• If Corbyn doesn't change his position before c.2020 he stands a risk of seeing his most pro-EU MPs resign from the party - this Labour splinter group would most likely be lead by Chuka Ummuna and whilst I can't see them forming a new party immediately they'd continue in Westminster as independents.

• It's almost a certainty that May will be replaced as Conservative leader before the next election, she'll see out the Brexit negotiations and then be replaced to give her replacement around a year to settle in before the 2022 election. As unlikely as it may seem now I think that this individual could be a pro-European because I suspect the polls will start to switch towards a pro-EU position within the electorate, partly for the reasons outlined in my previous post but also because of the disillusion caused by the fact that Brexit is taking up the majority of parliamentary time and many will want to see day to day governance restored.

• I understand that there are a significant number of Eurosceptics within the Conservative parliamentary party and certainly within the overall membership however the moderate Eurosceptics wouldn't break rank even if a pro-European took over the leadership. That's because they'd do anything necessary to prevent a Corbyn-led Labour taking power. The hard-line Eurosceptics would leave the party though - probably to join a resurgent UKIP.

• On the flip side, if a well-known populist Brexiter such as Johnson or a hard-line Brexiter such as Rees-Mogg replaces May then you'll likely see the pro-EU Tories leave the party in a similar fashion to the Labour splinter group I mentioned earlier... sitting as independents before starting discussions with Labour centrists and the runt of the Lib Dems about starting a new party.

• If that new party consisting of pro-EU Tories and Labour centrists did form before the 2022 election and stood on a cancelling Brexit ticket (not a second referendum but a complete cancellation) it's unlikely they'd win the election outright but it is likely they'd gain enough seats to hold the balance of power. They could then negotiate a coalition with either of the two main parties on the condition of a second referendum which using the analysis from my previous post would likely result in a pro-EU victory.

Now, there are a HUGE amount of assumptions and hypotheticals in my reasoning above but nothing outlandish. I could end up being completely wrong in my forecast or some of it may happen and other parts of it not, but one things for sure and that's that there's going to be lots of turbulence for a long time yet. A week is a long time in politics never mind four years!

 

[northwichcat]

I think this is a common view BUT I think we should remember that this is exactly what we deserve.

Remember, we had a referendum on PR and the people voted against it. This is sort of ironic because the EU referendum is held up, at least by Brexiteers, as the triumph of democracy since it was one person one vote. Yet it isn't in the silly first-past-the-post system ? Ironically, MEP's are elected by PR ; in my book, a more authentic version of democracy and yet the EU gets tagged as 'undemocratic'.

Okay, I'm left of centre but I would much prefer politics of consensus to the polarisation we have now - although it is best to remember that the country was far more polarised under Thatcher. I don't think, per se, there is anything wrong with coalition governments as govern many European countries with PR. Yet we always get the same guff about meeting your local MP who will represent your interests (except if you are in a constituency that voted Remain) and that 'nothing would get done if we had PR' ; which might well be a blessing in disguise.

And what is all this about 'leadership' ? Theresa May is a good leader, Jeremy Corbyn isn't a good leader. What is a 'good leader' and why do we need 'leading' ?

As I say, the dreadful state that politics is in is all of our own making. Perhaps 'British Democracy' isn't the best in the world.

As mentioned already people who say we had a vote on PR are wrong, we had a vote on AV which was a compromise after Cameron rejected the Lib Dem's wish for one on PR.

 

[Billy A]

....Here in Britain many look with bewilderment at the Irish situation where there are two separate countries who apparently can’t maintain peace without having a “soft” border.

I'd guess the same people would be equally bewildered if you tried to explain to them that their country had caused the whole issue in the first place...

 

[433N]

As mentioned already people who say we had a vote on PR are wrong, we had a vote on AV which was a compromise after Cameron rejected the Lib Dem's wish for one on PR.

My apologies, you are correct ... although in my defence, we do have PR in Scottish Parliament elections and so it is hard to keep up.

 

[Mintona]

My favourite bit is going to be when immigration doesn’t reduce at all as a result of Brexit. We will still need people to do the jobs, they will just be from Africa and Asia rather than Poland and Croatia. I can imagine that will play well with many Brexitty people.

 

[HSTEd]

My favourite bit is going to be when immigration doesn’t reduce at all as a result of Brexit. We will still need people to do the jobs, they will just be from Africa and Asia rather than Poland and Croatia. I can imagine that will play well with many Brexitty people.

Why?

How much economic activity will actually be lost as a result of restriction of the low skilled labour supply?

Businesses will adapt to use less labour, just as they adopt to use less of any other input that rises in price.

And many of the other jobs aren't really worth doing.
Manual car washes will vanish again and that will free vast numbers of workers itself.

 

[Senex]

Yet we always get the same guff about meeting your local MP who will represent your interests (except if you are in a constituency that voted Remain) and that 'nothing would get done if we had PR' ; which might well be a blessing in disguise.

The local MP who will represent your interests is supposed to be the great glory of the system. But for all those on the "wrong" side in safe-seat, single-member constituencies there is effectively no such representation. How much better a PR system with multi-member constituencies, where even if the constituency is significantly larger and so the members more "distant", there is a very good chance that at least one of those members will genuinely be close to representing your views.

 

[northwichcat]

Why?

How much economic activity will actually be lost as a result of restriction of the low skilled labour supply?

Businesses will adapt to use less labour, just as they adopt to use less of any other input that rises in price.

And many of the other jobs aren't really worth doing.
Manual car washes will vanish again and that will free vast numbers of workers itself.

A manual car wash near me has British workers, the nearby petrol station (with a drive through car wash) has Indian workers. How will Brexit change that? If the manual car wash is doing well why will the British workers leave and get a job starting at 5am in the middle of nowhere to pick and process green beans?

 

[northwichcat]

The local MP who will represent your interests is supposed to be the great glory of the system. But for all those on the "wrong" side in safe-seat, single-member constituencies there is effectively no such representation. How much better a PR system with multi-member constituencies, where even if the constituency is significantly larger and so the members more "distant", there is a very good chance that at least one of those members will genuinely be close to representing your views.

Good point. Paul Nuttall is one of the MEP representing my area, Esther McVey is the MP representing my area - neither represent people like me but if I want to a write to a MEP I have a choice and don't have to write to Nuttall, with MPs I don't have a choice and the one time I have written to McVey over cutbacks to a bus service serving the local hospital it didn't prompt her to take any positive action, presumably because cuts in funding for local councils is Conservative policy.

 

[NSEFAN]

Why?

How much economic activity will actually be lost as a result of restriction of the low skilled labour supply?

Businesses will adapt to use less labour, just as they adopt to use less of any other input that rises in price.

And many of the other jobs aren't really worth doing.
Manual car washes will vanish again and that will free vast numbers of workers itself.

So either prices will rise or more jobs will be automated. Neither of these are particularly helpful to those who voted Brexit because of fears about high prices and there being enough jobs to go around. The workers may be freed but will they have the ability to raise themselves out of low-paid manual work without assistance?