Northern's Problems in the North West

[nr758123]

I’m pleased that the multiple short-notice cancellations are having minimal effect on you, but I can’t agree that, from a passenger point of view, Northern’s way of dealing with their driver shortage is competent, intelligent or professional. Passengers don’t know from day to day, or even from hour to hour, whether their route will be next to be hit. Passengers need to plan ahead – they can’t do this if they don’t know when they make their outward journey whether their return journey will be cancelled or bus-replaced (involving either returning earlier than planned, or significantly extended journey times, or both).

There needs to be some sort of certainty for passengers.

I don’t see a connection between the current meltdown in services in the North West, largely due to a foolish overdependence on drivers’ rest day working, and future promised improvements. Nor do I see the relevance of DCO in this context.

 

[Mathew S]

I’m pleased that the multiple short-notice cancellations are having minimal effect on you, but I can’t agree that, from a passenger point of view, Northern’s way of dealing with their driver shortage is competent, intelligent or professional. Passengers don’t know from day to day, or even from hour to hour, whether their route will be next to be hit. Passengers need to plan ahead – they can’t do this if they don’t know when they make their outward journey whether their return journey will be cancelled or bus-replaced (involving either returning earlier than planned, or significantly extended journey times, or both).

There needs to be some sort of certainty for passengers.

I don’t see a connection between the current meltdown in services in the North West, largely due to a foolish overdependence on drivers’ rest day working, and future promised improvements. Nor do I see the relevance of DCO in this context.

I didn't expect you (or anyone else) to agree. I did make clear that I was giving my own, personal perspective.

Let me explain a little further: In my particular case, I have a choice between commuting on a route which sees 1tph, or a route which sees 5tph (shortly to be 6tph, and then 7tph in future). Currently, there are regular cancellations (1 train each hour, generally) on the more frequent of those routes, but it's not a big deal because the longest wait for the next service is but a few minutes. I have yet to see any cancellations on the 1tph route. To me, that is intelligent and sensible decision making. If you have no choice but to cancel a service, cancel one where there is a readily available alternative, rather than one which will delay passengers by an hour.

My personal experience is that the current situation is most certainly nothing even approaching a 'meltdown' despite the apocalyptic terms used by some armchair commentators on here and in the press.

I also wouldn't agree that there isn't sufficient information for passengers. http://www.journeycheck.com/northern/ gives a comprehensive and, seemingly, up to date list of service changes. Any passenger who doesn't bother to check before they travel is just inviting trouble - even at the best of times - and on their own head be it.

Of course, the current situation is many miles from perfect, but my broader point was, mostly, "you can't make an omelette without breaking eggs." I'm more than willing to put up with short-term, minor, irritation - which is all the current problems are in my area - in the knowledge that by the end of this franchise the service will have improved beyond all recognition.

 

[Starmill]

Any passenger who doesn't bother to check before they travel is just inviting trouble - even at the best of times - and on their own head be it.

While the sentiment is accurate, this is waaay over the top.

 

[Starmill]

I'm more than willing to put up with short-term, minor, irritation - which is all the current problems are in my area - in the knowledge that by the end of this franchise the service will have improved beyond all recognition.

Again this is absolutely the right way of looking at it. But I and many others question how a driver shortage is linked to the improvements? Are we saying that, without a driver shortage, there would have been no way to get the enhanced services on their way? I don't believe that logic follows at all. It's simply bad luck / poor planning (I have no idea which is factual but delete as appropriate based on your bias ) that is causing the disruption at present.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Let me explain a little further: In my particular case, I have a choice between commuting on a route which sees 1tph, or a route which sees 5tph (shortly to be 6tph, and then 7tph in future). Currently, there are regular cancellations (1 train each hour, generally) on the more frequent of those routes, but it's not a big deal because the longest wait for the next service is but a few minutes. I have yet to see any cancellations on the 1tph route. To me, that is intelligent and sensible decision making. If you have no choice but to cancel a service, cancel one where there is a readily available alternative, rather than one which will delay passengers by an hour.

There have been cancellations on the Ormskirk-Preston route (less than hourly) and Oxenholme-Windermere (roughly hourly).

But in any case, people need to be able to plan, so the cancellations need to be changed into an emergency timetable publicised in advance on the journey planners etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Again this is absolutely the right way of looking at it. But I and many others question how a driver shortage is linked to the improvements? Are we saying that, without a driver shortage, there would have been no way to get the enhanced services on their way? I don't believe that logic follows at all.

It certainly doesn't for all of them - the Ormskirk-Preston enhancement is done by building it into a 3-way circuit taking some layover out - it doesn't require any additional units or crews.

What is interesting, though, is that Northern are moving towards such an insane[1] level of complexity in their service (even with the coming of new stock) when GTR (Southern) are moving away from that and towards reducing splitting/joining and having simple self-contained single-route diagrams to reduce knock-on disruption.

[1] For the record I don't think the Ormskirk/Blackpool S/Colne circuit is "insane[ly] complex" - I'm speaking more widely than that.

 

[chorleyjeff]

I didn't expect you (or anyone else) to agree. I did make clear that I was giving my own, personal perspective.



My personal experience is that the current situation is most certainly nothing even approaching a 'meltdown' despite the apocalyptic terms used by some armchair commentators on here and in the press.

I also wouldn't agree that there isn't sufficient information for passengers. http://www.journeycheck.com/northern/ gives a comprehensive and, seemingly, up to date list of service changes. Any passenger who doesn't bother to check before they travel is just inviting trouble - even at the best of times - and on their own head be it.

Are you really saying that having read a timetable and made a decision to travel a passenger then needs to check shortly before travel to check that the timetable can be relied on ? Makes a mockery of advance tickets.
First you need to know what company you are due to travel with, then find out how to access their information then make a phone call or check via a website and then decide whether you should believe the info. you have just got. Not many people are savvy about negotiating the rail travel booking maze.
I have not used my railcard for the last few weeks because my local station is a bus station from evening and all weekend but having got to my destination I could not then rely on getting back on the timetabled trains from he Lake District or coast.

 

[Mathew S]

It's simply bad luck / poor planning (I have no idea which is factual but delete as appropriate based on your bias ) that is causing the disruption at present.

Yes, very true. If, however, the direct cause of the reason that drivers aren't available to operate services is that they are training on the Blackpool route, or other new routes from next week, then it's directly related to delivering service enhancements in that sense. I'm sure it could have been managed better, but this is the situation we're in.

Are you really saying that having read a timetable and made a decision to travel a passenger then needs to check shortly before travel to check that the timetable can be relied on ?

Yes, why on earth wouldn't you?

First you need to know what company you are due to travel with, then find out how to access their information then make a phone call or check via a website and then decide whether you should believe the info. you have just got. Not many people are savvy about negotiating the rail travel booking maze.

I'm sorry, but I simply don't believe that's the case. Almost any booking engine, nationalrail.co.uk, journeycheck, texting 84950, phoning 03457 484 950, social media, and a myriad of apps, will all give you live journey information on the day of travel. You certainly do not need to know which company you're travelling with. I'm sorry but if someone can't manage to perform a simple task such as checking the time of a train then I really don't think that's something that the TOC can be held responsible for. The information is there, at some point passengers have to take a bit of personal responsibility and use it.

 

[nr758123]

If you have no choice but to cancel a service, cancel one where there is a readily available alternative, rather than one which will delay passengers by an hour.

I agree that it makes sense to concentrate cancellations on routes with a more frequent service. However, there are plenty of routes with a basic hourly service or worse which are being badly hit by multiple cancellations – Windermere, Barrow, Colne, Blackpool South and Preston-Ormskirk amongst them. About 3 weeks back Stalybridge-Huddersfield lost its entire evening service to “driver shortage” cancellations, though more recently it seems Northern have thought better of withdrawing the service on this route with a basic hourly service.

I also wouldn't agree that there isn't sufficient information for passengers. http://www.journeycheck.com/northern/ gives a comprehensive and, seemingly, up to date list of service changes. Any passenger who doesn't bother to check before they travel is just inviting trouble - even at the best of times - and on their own head be it.

That would be fair comment if the evening cancellations were known about before making the outward journey in the morning. But they’re not. Journey check does not give the full list of cancellations for the day ahead – new cancellations are constantly being added. Publish the cancellations list 24 hours ahead, and it’s possible for passengers to adjust their travel plans.

Of course, the current situation is many miles from perfect, but my broader point was, mostly, "you can't make an omelette without breaking eggs." I'm more than willing to put up with short-term, minor, irritation - which is all the current problems are in my area - in the knowledge that by the end of this franchise the service will have improved beyond all recognition.

I’m sorry, but I don’t see the omelette and breaking eggs analogy. How do driver shortage cancellations, now, enable service improvement in future? The two things are unrelated.

 

[Starmill]

If, however, the direct cause of the reason that drivers aren't available to operate services is that they are training on the Blackpool route, or other new routes from next week, then it's directly related to delivering service enhancements in that sense.

Ah, but that's not the real answer. That does not mean it's a trade-off between short term pain and long term gain. If it would have been possible to have enough drivers to do the training and not cancel trains because of a driver shortage, as most people seem to believe, then an external factor has caused the disruption through lack of drivers. Equally, it could be argued that rather than cancelling key services it would have been better to delay the training to Blackpool, as having a bus replacement for longer is better than unpredictable cancellations on routes with just hourly service. Again I'm not commenting one way or the other, but it is an argument that could be made. The fact is that the driver shortage is not a neccesary part of the path to improvements. The actual causes of the shortage are not something I can comment on, but I don't think anybody honestly believes that drivers to cover training requirements wasn't very predictable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm sorry, but I simply don't believe that's the case. Almost any booking engine, nationalrail.co.uk, journeycheck, texting 84950, phoning 03457 484 950, social media, and a myriad of apps, will all give you live journey information on the day of travel. You certainly do not need to know which company you're travelling with. I'm sorry but if someone can't manage to perform a simple task such as checking the time of a train then I really don't think that's something that the TOC can be held responsible for. The information is there, at some point passengers have to take a bit of personal responsibility and use it.

I'd rather personally that the TOCs manage to operate the vast majority of the publicised service so doing so is not necessary, and if they can't for whatever reason that they publicise a different service that they can operate. Just because we can do those things does NOT mean we should have to do them.

Yes, why on earth wouldn't you?

Because, by and large, LNR/WMT operate a reliable train service with the trains departing at something approximating to the specified time and cancellations being very rare (and where you get them on infrequent services the buses and taxis are got in without arguing, i.e. Marston Vale).

I turn up at Bletchley or Euston and I get a train at or close to the time specified unless things have gone spectacularly wrong. (Times which I don't generally look up anywhere, I know them off the top of my head because at most times of day the service is pure clockface).

There is really no excuse for Northern to be doing otherwise, strikes aside (which are well-publicised).

If they can't operate the publicised service with cancellations a genuine exception, they need to change what they are publicising.

 

[Starmill]

Yes, why on earth wouldn't you?

Because you don't have internet access, or a device to check the updates on? There are a whole host of reasons why. Just because you and I are in the habit of this, doesn't mean everyone else is or should be. People can and do expect a reliable service.

 

[Mathew S]

I’m sorry, but I don’t see the omelette and breaking eggs analogy. How do driver shortage cancellations, now, enable service improvement in future? The two things are unrelated.

Already answered - driver training, and the engineering works which caused that to be delayed, enable service enhancements.

That would be fair comment if the evening cancellations were known about before making the outward journey in the morning. But they’re not. Journey check does not give the full list of cancellations for the day ahead – new cancellations are constantly being added. Publish the cancellations list 24 hours ahead, and it’s possible for passengers to adjust their travel plans.

As I understand it, to do that would mean there would be more cancellations. In theory I suppose you could do that and then reinstate services where you didn't have to cancel them after all. That said, I return to my 'check before you travel' analogy. To me, that means check an hour or two prior, and again on the way to the station.

There is really no excuse for Northern to be doing otherwise, strikes aside (which are well-publicised).

There's a difference between an 'excuse' and a 'reason'. There are many reasons for the current circumstance. I would argue only those which can be said to be completely outside the company's control could be said to be an 'excuse'. Northern would, I'm sure, say they're doing their best with the hand they've been dealt. Frankly I don't see any evidence otherwise, my starting point being that any process which involves human decision making will mean there are problems and mistakes. Second-guessing decisions made by people in challenging circumstances, with the best of intentions, based on imperfect information, is rarely wise, and never helpful. Better to take practical steps, such as checking before you travel, to help prevent any more problems occuring.

Ah, but that's not the real answer. That does not mean it's a trade-off between short term pain and long term gain. If it would have been possible to have enough drivers to do the training and not cancel trains because of a driver shortage, as most people seem to believe, then an external factor has caused the disruption through lack of drivers. Equally, it could be argued that rather than cancelling key services it would have been better to delay the training to Blackpool, as having a bus replacement for longer is better than unpredictable cancellations on routes with just hourly service. Again I'm not commenting one way or the other, but it is an argument that could be made. The fact is that the driver shortage is not a neccesary part of the path to improvements.

All true. There's no one cause, rather a combination of factors. Such is life. I do genuinely think Northern are doing their best.

I'd rather personally that the TOCs manage to operate the vast majority of the publicised service so doing so is not necessary, and if they can't for whatever reason that they publicise a different service that they can operate. Just because we can do those things does NOT mean we should have to do them.

I disagree. Other than the tiny (and it is tiny) number of people who will be genuinely unable to do so, I think we all have a responsibility to check before we travel. It's about taking responsibility for yourself, is my view. I can't emphasise enough how much I cannot understand why some people don't do this (assuming they're able to - see below). I'd turn your point on it's head: "just because you think you shouldn't have to do something, doesn't mean it isn't prudent".

Because you don't have internet access, or a device to check the updates on? There are a whole host of reasons why. Just because you and I are in the habit of this, doesn't mean everyone else is or should be. People can and do expect a reliable service.

The number of people who don't have access to any one of: a smartphone, a mobile or landline to call NRE, a mobile to send a text message, a pc/laptop/tablet/phone connected to the internet must be tiny though. I accept such people will exist, either through disability or circumstance, but it's so small a number that my expectation would be simply to accomodate genuine cases with taxis where necessary, or pay generous compensation.

 

[Mathew S]

I agree that it makes sense to concentrate cancellations on routes with a more frequent service. However, there are plenty of routes with a basic hourly service or worse which are being badly hit by multiple cancellations – Windermere, Barrow, Colne, Blackpool South and Preston-Ormskirk amongst them. About 3 weeks back Stalybridge-Huddersfield lost its entire evening service to “driver shortage” cancellations, though more recently it seems Northern have thought better of withdrawing the service on this route with a basic hourly service.

True, I'm fully aware that there are a few areas that are worse off than I; hence my making it clear that I could only speak for my own experience.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As I understand it, to do that would mean there would be more cancellations. In theory I suppose you could do that and then reinstate services where you didn't have to cancel them after all. That said, I return to my 'check before you travel' analogy. To me, that means check an hour or two prior, and again on the way to the station.

Really? Seriously?

If there is a genuine need to do that as a matter of course, the service is inadequate.

There's a difference between an 'excuse' and a 'reason'. There are many reasons for the current circumstance. I would argue only those which can be said to be completely outside the company's control could be said to be an 'excuse'. Northern would, I'm sure, say they're doing their best with the hand they've been dealt.

They really aren't.

They need to publish an emergency timetable that is easily deliverable within the level of staffing they have available. Random cancellations are not good enough.

All true. There's no one cause, rather a combination of factors. Such is life. I do genuinely think Northern are doing their best.

I don't.

I disagree. Other than the tiny (and it is tiny) number of people who will be genuinely unable to do so, I think we all have a responsibility to check before we travel. It's about taking responsibility for yourself, is my view. I can't emphasise enough how much I cannot understand why some people don't do this (assuming they're able to - see below). I'd turn your point on it's head: "just because you think you shouldn't have to do something, doesn't mean it isn't prudent".

In the context of the appalling excuse for a service that Northern are presently operating, it is certainly prudent. But it should not be necessary - it is not necessary when travelling with VTWC and LNR/WMT in my experience, so a TOC can be operated properly - and even if it is done it doesn't necessarily mean that the cancellations don't render your intended journey basically impossible, so all checking does is means you can sit at home instead of on the platform.

The number of people who don't have access to any one of: a smartphone, a mobile or landline to call NRE, a mobile to send a text message, a pc/laptop/tablet/phone connected to the internet must be tiny though. I accept such people will exist, either through disability or circumstance, but it's so small a number that my expectation would be simply to accomodate genuine cases with taxis where necessary, or pay generous compensation.

Or maybe Northern could set expectations properly by publishing an achievable emergency timetable well within their capability to operate. Any spare resources can then be used for strengthening where applicable and for improving reliability.

 

[Bletchleyite]

True, I'm fully aware that there are a few areas that are worse off than I; hence my making it clear that I could only speak for my own experience.

FWIW Ormskirk-Preston is traditionally an exceptionally punctual and reliable service. It's a single unit going back and forth with generally long layovers at both ends and onyl interfaces in any way with other trains at one end. It only tends normally to get cancelled in the event of a very severe problem like seriously inclement weather or the unit conking out. And that's been the case for years.

If *that* is getting cancellations, it shows things have got REALLY bad.

Your approach of checking before you go to the station will relieve stress to some extent, sure. But what it won't do is make Northern do what they need to do, which is to plan and implement a simplified timetable they can actually operate.

 

[Tetchytyke]

rather a combination of factors. Such is life. I do genuinely think Northern are doing their best.

The combination of factors are:
a) Arriva are rubbish;
b) Arriva are rubbish; and,
c) Arriva are rubbish.

These trains are not being cancelled due to lack of stock. The shortforms I can forgive: they are Network Rail's fault.

They are being cancelled due to lack of drivers. Drivers are not working rest days because of appalling industrial relations; that is an Arriva management failure. Arriva have authorised large swathes of annual leave without ensuring that they have sufficient cover; that is an Arriva management failure.

Shrugging all this off with "check before you travel" is utterly wrong.

If Arriva cannot maintain their timetable then they ought to instigate an emergency timetable that they can maintain. And then, and as soon as possible, they should be stripped of the franchise.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I don’t see a connection between the current meltdown in services in the North West, largely due to a foolish overdependence on drivers’ rest day working, and future promised improvements.

Indeed.

Arriva are trying to blame Network Rail for these issues, but these issues are not because of a lack of stock. They are because of a lack of staff.

The shortforms are not Arriva's fault. If some trains are cancelled because of a lack of stock, that is not Arriva's fault. But the meltdown in the north west is solely due to a lack of drivers. That is a failure of Arriva management and they ought to be held responsible.

 

[Starmill]

Better to take practical steps, such as checking before you travel, to help prevent any more problems occuring.

I mean that is a very small practical step. If you are waiting at a rural station with hourly service, checking before you travel and seeing that your train is cancelled is unlikely to be much help to you. You will probably simply be waiting for the next train regardless...

 

[Mathew S]

I mean that is a very small practical step. If you are waiting at a rural station with hourly service, checking before you travel and seeing that your train is cancelled is unlikely to be much help to you. You will probably simply be waiting for the next train regardless...

True, but hopefully at home in comfort rather than standing on said small rural station wondering why you didn't check if the train was cancelled before you started

 

[muz379]

Checking before you travel is kinda moot , you are going to find out the train is cancelled one way or another but if you are on the return portion of a journey , say to work then all you are finding out in advance is that you wont be getting home from work on time yet again . And in that instance you rightly have cause to complain .

Besides in some cases trains are cancelled less than an hour before their departure time . How many times do people need to check their train before it is due so they earn the right to be disgruntled that it has been cancelled ?

 

[Mathew S]

In the context of the appalling excuse for a service that Northern are presently operating, it is certainly prudent. But it should not be necessary - it is not necessary when travelling with VTWC and LNR/WMT in my experience, so a TOC can be operated properly - and even if it is done it doesn't necessarily mean that the cancellations don't render your intended journey basically impossible, so all checking does is means you can sit at home instead of on the platform.

You obviously have a better experience with VTWC than I do then
Or perhaps I've just been unluckly of late, but on time trains either to/from Scotland or via Brum (I generally travel from Wigan) seem to be an exception. They're very rarely cancelled altogether, I grant you, but also almost never 'on time'.

Really? Seriously?

If there is a genuine need to do that as a matter of course, the service is inadequate.

What I was getting at is if they cancel a load of trains, say, the day before; then find that actually there are 20 services that they could actually have run, it would mean reinstating those services. As I understand it, the reason that cancellations are happening only a few hours beforehand is because managers/planners are scrabbling to cover as many services as they can.

They really aren't.

With respect, how can you possible know? I have no doubt that every individual member of staff at Northern (albeit perhaps there are some bad apples) is doing the best they can to run the best service they can. I'm not going to criticise them for that. If there are organisational problems which are preventing them doing what they need to do - and I've no doubt there are - that doesn't mean that the staff aren't doing their best.

 

[Mathew S]

Arriva are trying to blame Network Rail for these issues, but these issues are not because of a lack of stock. They are because of a lack of staff.

Shortforms are due to lack of stock, but not the cancellations that we're seeing at the moment. I'm not sure how Network Rail can be blamed for a lack of stock in the Northern franchise (though by all means blame them for the stock not being able to be used on the intended routes, that's definitely their fault).
The blame which is attributable, I would argue to NR for the current issues is the condensed nature of Blackpool training which has had to take place. Yes, Northern could have recruited more drivers, but they evidently had reason to believe they wouldn't need to.

The combination of factors are:
a) Arriva are rubbish;
b) Arriva are rubbish; and,
c) Arriva are rubbish.

Well I must say I think that's terribly constructive

 

[Bletchleyite]

True, but hopefully at home in comfort rather than standing on said small rural station wondering why you didn't check if the train was cancelled before you started

It still might render your journey pointless.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Shortforms are due to lack of stock, but not the cancellations that we're seeing at the moment. I'm not sure how Network Rail can be blamed for a lack of stock in the Northern franchise (though by all means blame them for the stock not being able to be used on the intended routes, that's definitely their fault).
The blame which is attributable, I would argue to NR for the current issues is the condensed nature of Blackpool training which has had to take place. Yes, Northern could have recruited more drivers, but they evidently had reason to believe they wouldn't need to.

Maybe they did have reason to believe that, but now they have to accept they were wrong and put into place a reliable and achievable emergency timetable.

 

[Mathew S]

It still might render your journey pointless.

True. But then you've at least saved yourself a pointless journey to the station to find out that you need to go home again.

 

[Bletchleyite]

True. But then you've at least saved yourself a pointless journey to the station to find out that you need to go home again.

Indeed. But that still doesn't detract from the fact that what Arriva are doing simply is not good enough.

 

[muz379]

The blame which is attributable, I would argue to NR for the current issues is the condensed nature of Blackpool training which has had to take place. Yes, Northern could have recruited more drivers, but they evidently had reason to believe they wouldn't need to.

Even if Blackpool had opened on time what would the plan have been ? The same number of drivers still need training . The delay between the late "reopening" and a proper service being reinstated is now longer than the overall delay to the engineering works in the first place .

 

[Mathew S]

Maybe they did have reason to believe that, but now they have to accept they were wrong and put into place a reliable and achievable emergency timetable.

Okay, accepting that potentially an emergency timetable would make for a more reliable (ie. with fewer planned - as opposed to truly last-minute - cancellations), how would you deal with the overcrowding on e.g the Southport or Atherton lines? You can't run longer trains, without building longer platforms.

 

[Mathew S]

Even if Blackpool had opened on time what would the plan have been ? The same number of drivers still need training . The delay between the late "reopening" and a proper service being reinstated is now longer than the overall delay to the engineering works in the first place .

Not being privy to Northern's orginal plans, I can't answer that properly, but is it not the case that spreading the driver training over a longer period of time would have reduced the number of drivers who needed to do it at once, and thus ameliorated any shortage elsewhere?