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West Coast Franchise speculation

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DenmarkRail

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Geography. And the demographics.

Yeah, Stafford works as a connection to the Trent valley, Reading, Bournemouth, Paignton, Bristol, Exeter etc for people coming from Liverpool.

For people coming from London, you can transfer to services to Manchester (although you might as well get the direct)
 
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Bletchleyite

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Manchester has 3 trains an hour to London, including substantially later evening services, with more direct trains to intermediate stations as a result. It has direct services to Edinburgh, Glasgow, Carlisle, Windermere, Lancaster, Blackburn, Burnley, Halifax, Bradford, Middlesbrough, Hull, Birmingham Airport, Coventry, Oxford, Reading, Southampton, Bournemouth, Gloucester, Bristol, Taunton, Exeter, Plymouth, Shrewsbury, Hereford, Newport, Cardiff, Swansea, Llandudno, Bangor and Holyhead.

So? Manchester is bigger than Liverpool. Manchester is more important than Liverpool, being arguably the second or third city in England, shuffling back and forth with Birmingham (well, the West Midlands as a whole). Liverpool is probably not even the third city.

There's also geography, or rather railway geography. Liverpool is basically at the end of a set of sort-of branch lines, while Manchester is well positioned for through services and is on the way from lots of places to lots of others. Liverpool is not on the way from anywhere to anywhere (other than small demands like West Lancashire to North Wales) - you have to need to run the service *to Liverpool* purely to serve Liverpool and its hinterland for it to be worthwhile.

Liverpool has 1 service per hour to London, considerably slower services to Birmingham (despite these being the way the city's residents are supposed to travel to everywhere south and east of Brum, except London), and direct services to none of the places I've listed (with only a handful in the pipeline). If I remember rightly, a recent survey found that only Bradford is worse-served among major cities. What logical reason is there why Liverpool, which is not actually that much smaller than Manchester, receives so mich worse provision ?

Manchester jealously again? I don't get the inferiority complex. Indeed, I really find it grates. The incessant whining of being badly done by makes some of the more vocal inhabitants of my birth city just sound like, well, whiners. It makes people ignore them. It makes people dislike the place. The city will just never move on the world scale until it stops it and starts being positive.

The people of Liverpool are not badly done by, not in any form. Try living somewhere really deprived like parts of the South Wales Valleys, somewhere like Blaenau Ffestiniog, parts of Middlesbrough etc. Liverpool, by and large, has nothing on them. And Manchester of course has its ratholes.

It's because of geography, primarily, not because someone has it in for Liverpool. They really don't. Genuinely.

People like me, who live in Liverpool but have to travel frequently, find life more difficult than if they lived somewhere better served.

If living in Liverpool does not suit your travel patterns, then why not consider moving to a city that does? You wouldn't live in Manchester and commute daily to London (unless a very rich insomniac). Why live somewhere that is unsuitable for your travel needs?

In any case, now they've poshed it up, changing at New St really isn't a trial. It nicely breaks your journey up and has a good selection of retail to pick something up. I chose to do so this evening, quite willingly, I could instead have gone down the Trent Valley but didn't.

That's not having a chip on your shoulder, that's pointing out an actual substantial difficulty which arises from living in one place rather than another. Like many people who have moved away from Liverpool, you may be reluctant to argue for better treatment for the city for fear of people waving their hands at you and telling you 'eh calm down, calm down', but that doesn't make the situation any fairer or more logical.

FWIW I travel to the city quite often, I was there this weekend, all my immediate family live in or around it. But for the replacement bus service from Crewe, I was quite happy with the £29.something walk-up super off peak return in exchange for a slightly slower service.
 
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Chester1

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I am getting sick of hearing x city is a similar size to Manchester. Yes the city borough has about 550,000 people but the population of its economic zone and of the catchment area of its VT services is significantly larger than cities such as Bradford and Liverpool. Chester and Wigan divert VT passengers from Liverpool, depending on timings and price it might be cheaper for people in the south of Liverpool to change at Crewe and there are also stopping services from Lime Street into Warrington Bank Quay. Wigan diverts some traffic from VT Piccadilly services, Preston maybe a small amount of Bolton passengers and Warrington and Crewe divert very few. For most people in Greater Manchester (population 2.5m) the best VT services to connect with are Manchester Piccadilly + Stockport services while a large minority of the population of Merseyside (population 1.1m) are either better or equally connected to Wigan, Warrington BQ, Chester or Crewe than Lime Street. In an ideal world Liverpool would have an extra London express service but probably with 2 midlands / south stops each and with one going via St Helens and Warrington. Liverpool needs an hourly 11 coach VT service as a priority, 8 coach LNWR services and maybe peak time Stafford VT stops being transferred to other services. That will provide the extra capacity needed until 2026.
 

pt_mad

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I genuinely don’t think there is any problem at all with Liverpool’s service level, other than that they need to ensure 11 car sets on the London services and 8 car sets on the Birminghams.

The whole thing seems to be an inferiority complex against Manchester, despite Merseyrail being markedly better than Metrolink.


Thing is there's not going going to be 8 car sets on the Liverpool Birmingham. As the 350/2s are going.
The new sets will be 5 car Bombardier Aventras. And should end up running as single units between Birmingham and Liverpool. So 5 cars yer lot.


You can understand the point about Liverpool. It is a major top 15 cities place in the UK. And in a few years time Corby will have a more frequent intercity service! It may be that one bidder will try and plan in a second hourly Liverpool .I except at least one bid will be creative!
 

mmh

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Stafford has the service it has because of railway geography; it's an important junction for interchange.

Crewe is utterly nondescript and quite small - but it still gets a huge service because people change there. It is one of many such stations which appear to receive a disproportionate service but only receive it either because there is no significant cost in doing so (think the likes of Aughton Park, Town Green, Little Sutton, Overpool etc on Merseyrail which really do not justify 4tph but receive it because it's easier) or because they are interchanges (Llandudno Junction is one such example, but there are loads of them).

I grew up a Scouser and even so really don't understand the ridiculous complex the city seems to have about this kind of thing. Though FWIW I would extend the Trent Valley semifast to Lime St (providing a genuine alternative at a very good price, and I would expect it to be VERY popular) rather than a Euston-Brum which could instead run to Crewe only.

Even Roger Moore would be surprised at how raised my eyebrow is after seeing Little Sutton equated with Llandudno Junction. Really?

My other eyebrow raised on "the ridiculous complex the city seems to have". Please. even if you are a Liverpudlian we really don't need to bring that stereotype nonsense on here, surely?
 

mmh

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Crewe is utterly nondescript and quite small - but it still gets a huge service because people change there.

Well of course Crewe is somewhere most people have only heard of because its a famous railway junction, but a big enough town grew up around the railway as in other places? I've only ever changed there, it's never been a destination but the number of people leaving being picked up by car or taxi there in my experience is far higher than any other station between there and Glasgow that I've used. They must be going somewhere, and there must have been a reason for ticket barriers to be put in.
 

mmh

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Geography. And the demographics.

Demographics? Being charitable I'll assume you mean where a place has connections to and travel to and from. For Liverpool, it's fair to say two places would be North Wales and Central Scotland, both of which are far more awkward to get to from than they should be.
 

pt_mad

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I can't believe XC has received such criticism in the forum for just treading water over this last franchise when the West Coast has basically been doing the same since 2012. At least XC brought in the HST sets, which did at least something for capacity, be it not a great deal.

But everyone seems to be banking on all 3 WCP bidders wanting to keep the timetable exactly the same as the minimum requirement that it is today. What, another 7 years of treading water to add on to that since the First franchise got shelved in 2012?

Why should we expect to be happy for any franchise to just tread water until at least 2026? XC have got a lot of stick over it as they 'only brought in a few extra HSTs and nothing else' .Yet many people seem happy for whoever bids for WCP to not even bring in any new ideas for increased stock or increased workings to x city.

People said this recent one year VT direct award did nothing except WiFi which was on the cards anyways and was essentially treading water again. And yet everyone is talking like it's set in stone that all 3 bidders are going to plan to only tread water until 2026 with the exact same overall timetable and nothing extra. I just can't see it.

If the DFT didn't want anything aspirational and expected everything to stay as it was in 2013, they may as well have just carried on awarding VT direct awards on the current terms until 2024.

Presumably they are expecting some new ideas and innovation.
 
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The Ham

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I'm aware of that. But I'm not sure that extended dwells at Smethwick/Coseley, Penkridge, Winsford, Acton Bridge and South Parkway while people sorted themselves out would help timekeeping.

Traveling to stations which are served by 450's with selective door opening I can assure you that it has zero impact on the stop time. There announcements at each station about needing to travel in the first X coaches, and on board announcements in plenty of time for most people to walk through 12 coaches if they needed to!
 

The Ham

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I can't believe XC has received such criticism in the forum for just treading water over this last franchise when the West Coast has basically been doing the same since 2012. At least XC brought in the HST sets, which did at least something for capacity, be it not a great deal.

But everyone seems to be banking on all 3 WCP bidders wanting to keep the timetable exactly the same as the minimum requirement that it is today. What, another 7 years of treading water to add on to that since the First franchise got shelved in 2012?

Why should we expect to be happy for any franchise to just tread water until at least 2026? XC have got a lot of stick over it as they 'only brought in a few extra HSTs and nothing else' .Yet many people seem happy for whoever bids for WCP to not even bring in any new ideas for increased stock or increased workings to x city.

People said this recent one year VT direct award did nothing except WiFi which was on the cards anyways and was essentially treading water again. And yet everyone is talking like it's set in stone that all 3 bidders are going to plan to only tread water until 2026 with the exact same overall timetable and nothing extra. I just can't see it.

If the DFT didn't want anything aspirational and expected everything to stay as it was in 2013, they may as well have just carried on awarding VT direct awards on the current terms until 2024.

Presumably they are expecting some new ideas and innovation.

If you want new services you'll need new rolling stock.

I've suggested here that it could be possible to have short units (6 coaches with tilt), and it also could be possible to extend services from Birmingham Northwards. If it were to then run these 6 coach units in pairs without causing problems at station stops then there could be more possibilities for more services.

I'm not aware of anyone commenting on this. However such a proposal could see some extra Liverpool services (maybe splitting some of the existing Manchester services).

I've also suggested in the XC thread that with enough stock you could run a XC service to Manchester as a doubled up unit and then split it at Crewe to then also serve Liverpool. That could then gain you direct connections to Reading, Bristol, the South Coast and Devon & Cornwall. However, again, that requires more units. Such a service would only really need to justify its costs from where it splits as the second unit would mostly be used for extra capacity through the core (Exeter/Reading to/from Crewe).

If either of those suggestions came to anything then it would improve things. If both happened then Liverpool could be much closer in service levels (at least within one change, and that one change point would probably be more frequent to get to) to Manchester than it currently is. Possibly to the extent that there's less complaints about the miss match between service provision.
 

Chester1

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If you want new services you'll need new rolling stock.

I've suggested here that it could be possible to have short units (6 coaches with tilt), and it also could be possible to extend services from Birmingham Northwards. If it were to then run these 6 coach units in pairs without causing problems at station stops then there could be more possibilities for more services.

I'm not aware of anyone commenting on this. However such a proposal could see some extra Liverpool services (maybe splitting some of the existing Manchester services).

I've also suggested in the XC thread that with enough stock you could run a XC service to Manchester as a doubled up unit and then split it at Crewe to then also serve Liverpool. That could then gain you direct connections to Reading, Bristol, the South Coast and Devon & Cornwall. However, again, that requires more units. Such a service would only really need to justify its costs from where it splits as the second unit would mostly be used for extra capacity through the core (Exeter/Reading to/from Crewe).

If either of those suggestions came to anything then it would improve things. If both happened then Liverpool could be much closer in service levels (at least within one change, and that one change point would probably be more frequent to get to) to Manchester than it currently is. Possibly to the extent that there's less complaints about the miss match between service provision.

A small order of tilting stock is likely to be extremely expensive due to the very limited number of manufacturers that could build them. It also means more slightly crampt tilting stock being used for non tilt services after 2026.
 

Bletchleyite

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And in a few years time Corby will have a more frequent intercity service!

Eh?

Corby is likely to receive a service using outersuburban EMUs which are basically the same as Liverpool's Birmingham service. Corby also has very little in the way of local employment outside of retail and a very small amount of remaining industry.

This is a classic example of the nature of the moaning. Liverpool is not as badly off as Corby. Not by any stretch of the imagination.
 

B&I

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Surely for quite a few places changing at Stafford makes more sense?


It does, which is why I was arguing earlier that Stafford stops should not be removed from Liverpool-London services
 

Bletchleyite

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Demographics? Being charitable I'll assume you mean where a place has connections to and travel to and from. For Liverpool, it's fair to say two places would be North Wales and Central Scotland, both of which are far more awkward to get to from than they should be.

They're really not. Given that most people don't live within walking distance of Lime St (the city centre doesn't have anywhere near as much premium residential as Manchester does; it's a city of suburban dwellers, really), Merseyrail provides for reasonable (slow, but very frequent) access to Chester[1] for North Wales and to Preston (going hourly next month) and Wigan for northbound intercity services. Or if you must you can drive to one of those railheads.

But even given that they are not, those two specific items are being improved over the coming few years - the Halton Curve will give a faster Lime St to Chester service which long term may well run further e.g. to Llandudno (I barely see any point in it if it doesn't), while TPE are introducing direct Scottish services.

[1] For some people the London service via Chester will be quicker than that via Lime St, and because the Lime St one doesn't call at MKC it *is* quicker for that. So in some ways it provides a second hourly service, just not from Lime St.
 

B&I

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So? Manchester is bigger than Liverpool. Manchester is more important than Liverpool, being arguably the second or third city in England, shuffling back and forth with Birmingham (well, the West Midlands as a whole). Liverpool is probably not even the third city.

There's also geography, or rather railway geography. Liverpool is basically at the end of a set of sort-of branch lines, while Manchester is well positioned for through services and is on the way from lots of places to lots of others. Liverpool is not on the way from anywhere to anywhere (other than small demands like West Lancashire to North Wales) - you have to need to run the service *to Liverpool* purely to serve Liverpool and its hinterland for it to be worthwhile.


Why is Manchester so "important' ? I've nothing against the place - my other half lives there. And despite not being a Scouser I don't want to add fuel to your anti-Scouse fire, but it's difficult to avoid comparisons with Manchester when it is the only other really large city in the north west. But for the life of me I cannot work out how it has assumed, almost without question, this 'second city' role. Could it be that other cities would be just as 'important' if they too received similar levels of investment eg with regard to rail provision ?

There are approaching 2 million people in the Liverpool metropolitan area (excluding Chester). There are roughly 2.8 million in Greater Manchester. Does that justify the extent of the difference in service between them ?

As for geography, that argument is hard to take seriously when so many of the services I mention to Manchester TERMINATE there. Manchester is a natural through point on east-west services, but not on north-south ones.



Manchester jealously again? I don't get the inferiority complex. Indeed, I really find it grates. The incessant whining of being badly done by makes some of the more vocal inhabitants of my birth city just sound like, well, whiners. It makes people ignore them. It makes people dislike the place. The city will just never move on the world scale until it stops it and starts being positive.

The people of Liverpool are not badly done by, not in any form. Try living somewhere really deprived like parts of the South Wales Valleys, somewhere like Blaenau Ffestiniog, parts of Middlesbrough etc. Liverpool, by and large, has nothing on them. And Manchester of course has its ratholes.

It's because of geography, primarily, not because someone has it in for Liverpool. They really don't. Genuinely.


So your idea of positivity is to sit there like a good little boy and accept whatever crumbs we are offered, without question ? That approach has worked REALLY well so far. What did Liverpool City Council and Merseytravel receive in return for backing HS2 to the hilt ? Left with a worse HS2 service than any comparable city.

What I find really grates is people are happy to see Liverpool saddled with third rate provision of just about everything, then wheel out the same tired cliches about Scousers whenever anyone has the temerity to complain.

When these people then seek to burnish their own Scouse credentials, that grates even more. Along with its own city council and other local bureaucrats, ex-Liverpudlians and people from the surrounding towns and countryside seem to me to be the people keenest to keep the city down.


If living in Liverpool does not suit your travel patterns, then why not consider moving to a city that does? You wouldn't live in Manchester and commute daily to London (unless a very rich insomniac). Why live somewhere that is unsuitable for your travel ?

Ah, the Norman Tebbitt approach. Why not ask the question, why is it not possible for someone living in one of the country's largest metropolitan areas to travel quickly and easily round
the country ?


In any case, now they've poshed it up, changing at New St really isn't a trial. It nicely breaks your journey up and has a good selection of retail to pick something up. I chose to do so this evening, quite willingly, I could instead have gone down the Trent Valley but didn't..

So let's abolish all direct services through New Street, so everyone can enjoy its wonderful ambiance and fine retail provision. After all, such luxury clearly shouldn't be enjoyed only by people going to and from an insignificant speck like Liverpool.

Anyway, you've missed the more important point, which is, why do Liverpool travellers have to rely so heavily on a desperately slow, cramped stopping service to travel to so many places ?
 
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ivanhoe

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They're really not. Given that most people don't live within walking distance of Lime St (the city centre doesn't have anywhere near as much premium residential as Manchester does; it's a city of suburban dwellers, really), Merseyrail provides for reasonable (slow, but very frequent) access to Chester[1] for North Wales and to Preston (going hourly next month) and Wigan for northbound intercity services. Or if you must you can drive to one of those railheads.

But even given that they are not, those two specific items are being improved over the coming few years - the Halton Curve will give a faster Lime St to Chester service which long term may well run further e.g. to Llandudno (I barely see any point in it if it doesn't), while TPE are introducing direct Scottish services.

[1] For some people the London service via Chester will be quicker than that via Lime St, and because the Lime St one doesn't call at MKC it *is* quicker for that. So in some ways it provides a second hourly service, just not from Lime St.
I think you have made excellent points about connectivity to and from Liverpool and have recognised the Geographical factors that influence the said connections.
 

B&I

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They're really not. Given that most people don't live within walking distance of Lime St (the city centre doesn't have anywhere near as much premium residential as Manchester does; it's a city of suburban dwellers, really), Merseyrail provides for reasonable (slow, but very frequent) access to Chester[1] for North Wales and to Preston (going hourly next month) and Wigan for northbound intercity services. Or if you must you can drive to one of those railheads.

But even given that they are not, those two specific items are being improved over the coming few years - the Halton Curve will give a faster Lime St to Chester service which long term may well run further e.g. to Llandudno (I barely see any point in it if it doesn't), while TPE are introducing direct Scottish services.

[1] For some people the London service via Chester will be quicker than that via Lime St, and because the Lime St one doesn't call at MKC it *is* quicker for that. So in some ways it provides a second hourly service, just not from Lime St.


Presumably you aren't aware that Liverpool has one of the fastest-growing city centre populations, or that people from its suburbs also use inter-city trains.

I assume, though, that you are aware that Merseyrail doesn't run to either Wigan or Preston ? Manchester has lots of services to both those towns (and a number of other towns with inter-city connections) as well - why can't people travel from its suburbs to those towns to catch inter-city services ?
 

Bletchleyite

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Presumably you aren't aware that Liverpool has one of the fastest-growing city centre populations, or that people from its suburbs also use inter-city trains.

Presumably you missed my point that Merseyrail often makes other railheads convenient in a way Manchester's somewhat lacking suburban network doesn't? Even Metrolink doesn't unless you're going to Chester via Altrincham.

I assume, though, that you are aware that Merseyrail doesn't run to either Wigan or Preston ?

I am fully aware of how those places are served.

I'm also fully aware that anyone going from the Merseyrail Ormskirk line to anywhere north of there goes via Preston unless it's on a Sunday (now that *does* need fixing).

Manchester has lots of services to both those towns (and a number of other towns with inter-city connections) as well - why can't people travel from its suburbs to those towns to catch inter-city services ?

To use one example, many people *do* travel from Manchester to Scotland changing at Preston. Often there are well-priced Advances on VTWC because it quietens down a lot north of Preston, and overcrowding is often not as bad as the TPE services.

As for Welsh destinations, Chester is nowhere near as well connected to Manchester as it is to Liverpool, so this one is a non-argument.

We are mostly then left with XC destinations south of New St, which I just don't believe is the kind of problem you suggest it is. The 2tph of semifast services is much better than 1tph fast and 1tph slow, as it creates more journey opportunities. The UK is very much heading that way generally.
 

B&I

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Even Roger Moore would be surprised at how raised my eyebrow is after seeing Little Sutton equated with Llandudno Junction. Really?

My other eyebrow raised on "the ridiculous complex the city seems to have". Please. even if you are a Liverpudlian we really don't need to bring that stereotype nonsense on here, surely?


Apparently, it seems, we do. People get shouted down regularly on this forum for challenging the accepted / acceptable view of how the railwaya work in Britain. But it seems that anyone arguing for better services to or in Liverpool gets singled out for particular ire.
 

B&I

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Presumably you missed my point that Merseyrail often makes other railheads convenient in a way Manchester's somewhat lacking suburban network doesn't? Even Metrolink doesn't unless you're going to Chester via Altrincham.



I am fully aware of how those places are served.

I'm also fully aware that anyone going from the Merseyrail Ormskirk line to anywhere north of there goes via Preston unless it's on a Sunday (now that *does* need fixing).



To use one example, many people *do* travel from Manchester to Scotland changing at Preston. Often there are well-priced Advances on VTWC because it quietens down a lot north of Preston, and overcrowding is often not as bad as the TPE services.

As for Welsh destinations, Chester is nowhere near as well connected to Manchester as it is to Liverpool, so this one is a non-argument.

We are mostly then left with XC destinations south of New St, which I just don't believe is the kind of problem you suggest it is. The 2tph of semifast services is much better than 1tph fast and 1tph slow, as it creates more journey opportunities. The UK is very much heading that way generally.


So if, as you accept, there are lots of alternatives for people travelling from Greater Manchester to taking direct trains from central Manchester stations, why does Manchester need so many more long-distance services than Liverpool ?
 

Bletchleyite

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Apparently, it seems, we do. People get shouted down regularly on this forum for challenging the accepted / acceptable view of how the railwaya work in Britain. But it seems that anyone arguing for better services to or in Liverpool gets singled out for particular ire.

Because most of those people tell a sob story of how Liverpool is badly served or tell a story of jealousy of Manchester.

One of the reasons I get fed up of this is that I grew up in Liverpool but went to uni in Manchester, so I have seen what both cities have first hand and experienced them as well as hearing locals' views directly.

For one example, Manchester would give its eye teeth for Merseyrail. Yet they don't keep whining on about it, despite Metrolink being markedly inferior in many ways and the diesel suburban services being shockingly bad, with low frequencies, lacking Sunday services, low staffing and severe overcrowding, as well as hefty fares due to evening peak restrictions that don't exist on most of Merseyrail.
 

Bletchleyite

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So if, as you accept, there are lots of alternatives for people travelling from Greater Manchester to taking direct trains from central Manchester stations, why does Manchester need so many more long-distance services than Liverpool ?

It is simply geographically better positioned to make more sense to provide them, and is a more economically developed city so has greater demand.

Even where they are not through services, the geography makes changing at Manchester more viable than Liverpool. There is simply no point going via Liverpool Lime St for any journey unless you are actually going to somewhere roughly on the Merseyrail map, and that seriously limits demand. The geography, it and its hinterland being located on a sticky-out bit, do not make it make any sense.
 

B&I

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Because most of those people tell a sob story of how Liverpool is badly served or tell a story of jealousy of Manchester.

One of the reasons I get fed up of this is that I grew up in Liverpool but went to uni in Manchester, so I have seen what both cities have first hand and experienced them as well as hearing locals' views directly.

For one example, Manchester would give its eye teeth for Merseyrail. Yet they don't keep whining on about it, despite Metrolink being markedly inferior in many ways and the diesel suburban services being shockingly bad, with low frequencies, lacking Sunday services, low staffing and severe overcrowding, as well as hefty fares due to evening peak restrictions that don't exist on most of Merseyrail.


So, because you decided to keep your head down however many years ago at Manchester Uni, no-one is allowed to point out cases where public transport provision to Liverpool is inadequate ?

Interesting change of tune there over Metrolink. A few weeks ago, in the context of the South Wales 'Metro', you were arguing for light rail replacement, saying that you would have been as happy to see a Metrolink-type system in Liverpool as Merseyrail, and mounting some interesting arguments for how trams could negotiate central Liverpool while simultaneously defying the laws of physics. Now, because you are looking for evidence to support the spurious argument that Manchester and Liverpool have been treated equally in public transport terms, Metrolink is no longer fit for purpose.
 

Bletchleyite

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So, because you decided to keep your head down however many years ago at Manchester Uni, no-one is allowed to point out cases where public transport provision to Liverpool is inadequate ?

You can point out where you feel they are inadequate. I don't have to agree with you.
 

whhistle

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I can't believe XC has received such criticism in the forum for just treading water over this last franchise. What, another 7 years of treading water to add on to that since the First franchise got shelved in 2012? Why should we expect to be happy for any franchise to just tread water until at least 2026? ... and was essentially treading water again... all 3 bidders are going to plan to only tread water until 2026.
You should consider using a different phrase...

A lot of people are happy to stay the same. Remember, people as well as companies are afraid of change.
 

B&I

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It is simply geographically better positioned to make more sense to provide them, and is a more economically developed city so has greater demand.

Even where they are not through services, the geography makes changing at Manchester more viable than Liverpool. There is simply no point going via Liverpool Lime St for any journey unless you are actually going to somewhere roughly on the Merseyrail map, and that seriously limits demand. The geography, it and its hinterland being located on a sticky-out bit, do not make it make any sense.


While I do not think provision of rail services is the only thing influencing econonic growth, the lack of provision underlines a deeper attitude towards Liverpool (and a lot of other less economically successful places). No-one in this country is interested in actually making places which perform less well, perform better. So we end up with a small corner of the country absorving the vast majority of its resources, housing and other necessities of life being far too expensive, and the worst productivity in the developed world.

As for the geography, we have already done this bit. Manchester is no better a place to transfer heading anywhere further north from its myriad terminating services. It is a substantially worse place to transfer than Birmingham, Crewe or Stafford.
 
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