Will Crossrail2 Be Built In The Next 40 Years?

[WatcherZero]

Crossrail 2 is dead.

TfL submitted a 49 page funding proposal which required the DfT to pay all £31bn of construction costs up front with London not contributing a penny until after its opened, TfL would start repaying the money from operating profits and two further increases in the Mayoral Infrastructure Levy but business community not happy that there would be three Mayoral Infrastructure levies running at the same time because the first wont have expired.

 

[The Ham]

Crossrail 2 is dead.

TfL submitted a 49 page funding proposal which required the DfT to pay all £31bn of construction costs up front with London not contributing a penny until after its opened, TfL would start repaying the money from operating profits and two further increases in the Mayoral Infrastructure Levy but business community not happy that there would be three Mayoral Infrastructure levies running at the same time because the first wont have expired.

When does the first Crossrail levy expire?

The initial estimates were 2038, as such even if CR2 is delayed until that levy express it would still start being built, and could even open, within 40 years from now.

The problem is if you don't build CR2 what do you do instead? £1 billion for the fifth track and a further £2 billion for the Southern Approach to Heathrow, which would gain you a little of extra capacity. However you've spent 10% of the Crossrail 2 budget and got maybe some improvements for part of the SWML, but still left the Underground with no improvement and still large sections of the mainlines that would see significant improvement still no better off.

Yes it is an eye watering about of money (in the same way that HS2 is), but it would be a game changer in terms of capacity. For instance most services beyond Woking could see an increase in frequency of 50%. Then there's the 10% capacity improvement to the underground and the metro services that will also see improvements.

As I indicated further up this thread passenger numbers in London and the South East dwarf passenger numbers in ask the other regions. To the extent that even if the government funded CR2 to the tune of £30 billion, the South West would be "entitled to" £1.5 billion, so that the funding was split equally by passenger numbers.

 

[HSTEd]

How is London being "damaged"? London has damaged the rest of the country for decades through draining it of public resources and the best people.

Public resources that are largely supplied by London in the first place?

And saying that its London's fault for being more attractive to people starts to sound awfully like the people who move are merely cattle who should remain in place in somewhere they don't want. Simply because it's "fair".

The money will come from general taxation - like all other public monies.

GEneral taxation disproportionately raised in London and its environs.

The last sentence has to be a joke - thanks very much for the crumbs under London's table

More 'crumbs' are still better than fewer 'crumbs'.

Read what I said - London can pay for its own investment

And it does.

Why should London pay for its investment through special taxation, and then be forced to carry a bunch of destitute areas who are demanding poor-value infrastructure schemes through general taxation?
[Leaving aside that the North of England's Railway still recieves huge sums of money, just that it is spent propping up basket-case services instead of on infrastructure]

So a ticket office at one London station is more important than two whole city regions. Sums up the metropolitan mindset.

SUms up the reality of our country.

Leeds and Merseyside tramways both came up as awful value for money.
That is just the way it is.

 

[HSTEd]

Did you miss this?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...vestment-in-transport-is-in-london-says-study

or this gem?

http://www.tomforth.co.uk/wenevertried/

Or Northern rail bleeding out 35p per passenger-mile in subsidies?

 

[The Ham]

Or Northern rail bleeding out 35p per passenger-mile in subsidies?

You know that's unfair in that everyone knows that the profitable routes in the north are run by TPE!!!

However, even based on TPE's subsidises over a 20 year period the SWT area could have just over £11.5 billion spent on it and still only have the same level of total funding as if it had the same level of support as TPE.

Given that infrastructure is often based on a 60 year period then to have a fair level of investment then Crossrail 2 should be built. Even if TPE's subsidy reduces over time then the infrastructure investment it receives would make up any shortfall to cover the total cost of Crossrail 2.

However, that could still lead to problems as with more trains running then the profitably of the SWT franchise would likely to improve meaning that more investment was needed to keep things fair. That's without any local taxation in London.

Fund Crossrail 2 for a fair level of rail spending.

 

[Olaf]

That is inhumane -come on :cry:

I said I would increase tax on diesel fuel - why are you being like that?

It is not inhuman, it is simply a real-world solution; why subsidise extra passengers to overload a service and then have to pay out more money to finance the upgrades. Eliminating subsidies removes a market distortion, cuts the bureaucracy that services the subsidy mechanisms, frees-up tax revenues for more worthy causes, and even potential allows tax payers to keep more of their money in the first place.

 

[Olaf]

Eh? If you electrify you usually undertake other relevant infrastructure improvements than can improve capacity. Faster run times and longer EMUs will raise capacity. ....

In other words; scope-creep which adds un-budgeted costs to the electrification programs.

I am not against electrification so long as the projects are delivered on-time and to budget. NR has still not demonstrated that it can do this and has left a substantial funding gap for the next period.

In terms of enhancement to customer service - there are the known pros around the lower failure rates of the vehicles, slight increase in capacity from additional seating in the end cars, slight improvements in journey times etc, etc, but none of which fully address the issues of capacity and on-time railway. The Digital Railway initiative addresses these topics directly.

 

[Olaf]

Missing the point: in the case of Grimsby itself probably not, but over the north as a whole investment priority over Crossrail 2 is justified

Can you produce a comparative analysis to support your assertion?

The CR2 project has already through several stages of planning and they are working on the details now, whereas TfL made its initial proposals this week, with firmer proposals not due until later in the years so the former is far more advanced. Delaying CR2 for the as yet undefined proposals is just activist chicanery.

That is before looking at what is proposed by TfL which is to a large extent a rag-bag of me-too. There are a lot of proposals there, but to keep the TfL members happy there would be a lot of expenditure on small projects with little benefit from concentrated efforts. As to the economic benefits claimed by the backers of TfL, how sound are those figures? do they take into account the negative impacts on marginalised conurbations? and making comparisons with London is like comparing a pygmy hippo with a bull elephant.

 

[Olaf]

Politics makes or breaks projects. HS2 is only going ahead because there is cross-party agreement. Crossrail2 is seen in the north as a line in the sand as far as the bias towards London invstment is concerned

Yet it is London that will gain from HS2 at the expense of the provincial cities, so where is the substance to the arguments in it's favour. Again, it is just mischief stared-up by political activists.

 

[Olaf]

Standard knee-jerk right wing guff.

Standard left-wing baying for a free-ride off of decent, hard-working people.

 

[Olaf]

Spoken as one of The Few who already has an easy life, then? Use of the word 'entitled' by right wing reactionaries is one of the most ironic things I've ever encountered.

If you want the rewards you must put in the effort and not expect a free ride from others; in my case that included all the extra effort required to manoeuvre around the self-serving obstructionism of union reps; and no, I was not born with a spoon in mouth, but raised on one of the bleakest housing estates in a northern city and climbed through the system through my own efforts.

 

[Olaf]

Thereby exacerbating the divide - the rich get richer, while the poor get poorer.

Inequality is a huge and growing problem in this country - as all political parties now recognise. Some people it seems want it to get worse.

Again this is just more political dogma. If people want to improve their lot, they can do that through hard work.

There is no benefit to the people you are talking to from expenditure for the sake of it, and many of the proposals being put forward by TfL will exasperate the problem in the smaller urban areas - just in the same way it did on a smaller scale within the existing Greater Manchester and Merseyside Metros.

 

[Olaf]

Did you miss this?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...vestment-in-transport-is-in-london-says-study

or this gem?

http://www.tomforth.co.uk/wenevertried/

... and did you miss this - IPPR.

 

[Olaf]

Crossrail 2 is dead.

TfL submitted a 49 page funding proposal which required the DfT to pay all £31bn of construction costs up front with London not contributing a penny until after its opened, TfL would start repaying the money from operating profits and two further increases in the Mayoral Infrastructure Levy but business community not happy that there would be three Mayoral Infrastructure levies running at the same time because the first wont have expired.

http://www.cityam.com/267134/whitehall-feud-over-crossrail-2-ministers-push-back-against

A DfT spokesperson said: “As with all transport scheme proposals a thorough analysis is being carried out by the department to ensure it is a robust scheme. This includes examining whether the National Infrastructure Commission’s detailed recommendations on the scheme have been met. These considerations and further discussions are part of a normal ongoing process.”

Crossrail 2 is expected to cost £31.2bn, and TfL forecasts its impact will result in £11bn in journey time savings, and unlock 200,000 extra jobs in the region thanks to the increase in transport capacity. The business case also claims that the scheme will facilitate the construction of 200,000 homes.

The current timeline envisions a hybrid bill being submitted to parliament by the autumn of 2019 for Royal Assent by 2021/2022, and construction to commence that year. The rail route would then be ready to open for 2033, which would also tie in with the second phase of HS2.

I would imagine that the Mayor's stance is riven in part by the current financial problems at TfL due to is election promises. But yes, as it stands CR2 is not on the agenda for the next two years, though that does not mean it can not be revived if a sensible funding package can be agreed.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Again this is just more political dogma. If people want to improve their lot, they can do that through hard work.

And you do not make the poor rich by making the rich poor. You make the poor rich by making the rich absolutely filthy stinking rich. Sorry OT. But I do think there is a case for investing in transport links for the less well off areas to give them a chance to lift themselves out of poverty. Good transport links equals mobility and a chance to work hard etc.

 

[The Ham]

Yet it is London that will gain from HS2 at the expense of the provincial cities, so where is the substance to the arguments in it's favour. Again, it is just mischief stared-up by political activists.

I don't doubt that London will benefit from HS2, but at the expense of other cities is quite a bold claim.

HS2 will probably mean that the will be up to 10 commuter services an hour over the Southern WCML, which will be a substantial amount of extra seats. Although that will only benefit one of the routes into London and won't mean that other routes won't be over crowded and need investment, such as CR2.

However it will also mean that Birmingham could see about 5tph, whilst Leeds and Manchester could see about 3tph. Although that isn't as many as London that is also a significant amount of extra capacity which would be fairly transformative, especially if the extra services run across the city effectively meaning that there are two services into the city centre for each path gained.

It is one of the reasons that I think that there's not a need for a significant Crossrail type project for those cities for the time being. However, that's not to say that they shouldn't see any investment. In fact with some extra funding it could allow a few more paths to be found to even further improve the benefits.

The other thing to consider is that HS2 is going to significantly reduce the number of people who are using XC to travel between Birmingham and Manchester or Leeds. That in turn will mean more seats on XC services for the stations between those cities not served by HS2 and therefore more capacity into those cities.

All of that is before you consider any changes in long distance provision, which is likely to be an improvement but probably not as significant as those listed above.

The problem is, even ignoring the HS2 services, up to 10 commuter services an hour into Euston will need significant improvements in capacity for onwards travel, which is where CR2 comes in. Without it Euston is likely to see significant overcrowding in its underground station, possibly to the extent that it is unsafe and the station sees periods of closers to stop it causing an incident (read death).

How many times have tube stations closed due to station overcrowding? I don't know, but I've witnessed it a few times (not associated with any large events, just near to popular tourist attractions like the national history museum) and I don't go into London lots, maybe a few times a month.

Yet other that when there's a major event I would doubt that many other cities see their stains closed on a regular basis in the same way that London sees its underground stations. The link below talks about over 500 closures of underground stations a year:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/tran...-most-overcrowded-tube-stations-a3277706.html

It is why comparisons between overcrowding in Leeds and London on the mainlines isn't a fair compensation as you should also include the underground overcrowding to give an equal results.

It is why Crossrail is needed and why Crossrail 2 is also needed, as well as the other investment in the underground.

 

[rebmcr]

raised on one of the bleakest housing estates in a northern city and climbed through the system through my own efforts.

Me too, but I didn't sell my soul along the way.

If people want to improve their lot, they can do that through hard work.

No, that's a fallacy. For everyone who works hard and succeeds, there are others who work just as hard and fail. We got lucky.

From Taylor Swift's point of view, anyone who works hard will become an international superstar, and those who don't must be lazy spongers...

 

[infobleep]

From the Evening Standard 17 underground stations that face overcrowding if Crossrail 2 isn't built. They also mention Clapham Junction.

Surely there must be other national rail stations that would face overcrowding. It can't just be tube stations and Clapham Junction.

THE STATIONS AT RISK
Euston
King’s Cross St. Pancras
Liverpool Street
London Bridge
Victoria
Waterloo
Finsbury Park
Stockwell
Stratford
Oxford Circus
Highbury & Islington
Clapham Common
Clapham North
Clapham South
Holborn
Warren Street
Leicester Square

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/tran...wding-if-crossrail-2-is-stopped-a3590251.html

I see Mr Grayling is going to meet Mr Khan. I'd like to be a fly on the wall in that meeting

 

[Wolfie]

Personally speaking I would have no problem in it going ahead, just as long as other planned projects elsewhere didn't quietly get shifted back onto the shelves. Because whilst it is a key project for the capital, there are other equally important projects around the country that need completion too. If financially it come down to Crossrail 2 or a few other projects elsewhere like electrification of the Trans-Pennine or Great Western then I would say that London would either have to wait, or fund it themselves.

That would be fine if the rest of the country didn't expect London to fund all of their projects too. Post-Brexit, when London finances will likely have been badly hit, the excrement will hit the fan....

They can have CR2 when everyone else in the UK has had their "improvements" they realisitic would like, whether reopened lines, new trains or electrification. Alternatively, get the private sector to fund it! By the way I do not include HS2 in this either although I understand why others would as you want it built.

In which case to be frank the rest of the UK can damn well pay for their programmes! As a Londoner (for work reasons not by origin) I am fed up to the back teeth of paying through the nose for crowded services while simultaneously being a cash cow for whingers from every part of the country.

Political constructs matter, especially in regards to £32bn! The Tories seem to be moving towards getting London to pay for most it instead of half. They are finally starting to gain some support in the north and they are not going to risk losing it by prioritising Crossrail 2 over "Northern Powerhouse Rail".

You are absolutely correct - of course when they start losing lots of seats in London and the South East as a result....

 

[Wolfie]

Given the Conservative manifesto made no specific commitment to Crossrail 2 compared to HS2 and Northern Powerhouse rail then they could be preparing to delay or withdraw support for the project unless TfL is prepared to fund the majority of the scheme.

However as The Ham points out Crossrail 2 has significant benefits beyond London and I can't see many Hampshire, Wiltshire, Hertfordshire and Essex Tories being too happy when they realise that many of the improvements to services into London won't happen if Crossrail 2 is not built, and I can see them siding with the London mayor against the government.

Yup not least because they will be out on their ear otherwise......

Not a single penny of public money should be allocated to Crossrail 2 until the Northern HS3 is given the go-ahead

As some failed prime minister said, enough is enough when it comes to public funding of southern infrastructure.

Fine.... just one problem, namely that the rather large chunk of the population in the South and more specifically the South East (as in actual fact the South West does no better for funding than the North) might just have an issue with that....

Oh, and lets see the business case for HS3 first pse...

 

[Wolfie]

I think it is needed , so to reduce overcrowding on the Tube . The Victoria line cannot cope , even with 36 tph for example

But I don't think it should follow this route . I think it needs a part through North West London , which is a part which has recieved very little investment compared to East and South East London , which has had money thrown at it - DLR , Docklands , Westfield Stratford , Olympic Park , countless regen projects , while NW London has not had anything , so I think a part of Crossrail 2 should pass through there , as it will help to regenerate some of London's most deprived areas , like Harlesden and Stonebridge Park

Your second para is sensible in some ways but is logically disconnected from your first para. If you change the route too much it won't provide the relief for the existing lines...

 

[Ianno87]

Surely there must be other national rail stations that would face overcrowding. It can't just be tube stations and Clapham Junction.

I'd suggest Vauxhall would be a contender, and possibly Waterloo.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'd suggest Vauxhall would be a contender, and possibly Waterloo.

Wimbledon

 

[infobleep]

Wimbledon

I'd suggest Vauxhall would be a contender, and possibly Waterloo.

I agree with you both. What about Surbtion?

 

[Bald Rick]

I agree with you both. What about Surbtion?

Nope. The problems at Surbiton aren't solved by CR2. It needs some sort of station upgrade, and needs it before CR2 happens.

 

[Ianno87]

Your second para is sensible in some ways but is logically disconnected from your first para. If you change the route too much it won't provide the relief for the existing lines...

Remember, HS2 at Old Oak Common (both the station and the surrounding redevelopment) will be a mere stone's throw away from the likes of Harlesden and Stonebridge Park. So they are getting something.

 

[The Ham]

Remember, HS2 at Old Oak Common (both the station and the surrounding redevelopment) will be a mere stone's throw away from the likes of Harlesden and Stonebridge Park. So they are getting something.

The thing that could reduce the need for some people to head into London and back out again would be the Western and Southern Approaches to Heathrow as then it would be possible to change trains at Basingstoke or Woking to go to Old Oak Common (via Heathrow) to get on a HS2 service.

It could even change the number of people wishing to use XC services, as for longer distance travel (i.e Manchester or Leeds) it could be quicker to do that than do anything else, including using HS2 from Euston.

 

[Chester1]

You are absolutely correct - of course when they start losing lots of seats in London and the South East as a result....

The Tories are on long term decline in London which is strongly linked with the fall in home ownership due to extortionate prices. It is a nationwide problem for them but it is worst and hardest to reverse in London. Their strategy seems to be to push the poor out of the centre of London through a reduction is social housing provision and through the benefits cap. This should mean places like Kensington voting Labour are a blip and eventually central London will be safe Tory thus providing a floor in how many London seats they can realistically lose. South East marginals are important for the Conservatives to regain their majority but is Crossrail 2 the best political option of spending £32bn? I doubt it. The price tag is eye wateringly high and in addition to alientating people in the rest of the UK, a huge number of people in London and the South East will not benefit from it. I don't think the Tories have the political strength to push through another massive rail infrastructure project even if they wanted to.

 

[edwin_m]

Isn't Sadiq Khan also in favour of CR2?

 

[The Ham]

The Tories are on long term decline in London which is strongly linked with the fall in home ownership due to extortionate prices. It is a nationwide problem for them but it is worst and hardest to reverse in London. Their strategy seems to be to push the poor out of the centre of London through a reduction is social housing provision and through the benefits cap. This should mean places like Kensington voting Labour are a blip and eventually central London will be safe Tory thus providing a floor in how many London seats they can realistically lose. South East marginals are important for the Conservatives to regain their majority but is Crossrail 2 the best political option of spending £32bn? I doubt it. The price tag is eye wateringly high and in addition to alientating people in the rest of the UK, a huge number of people in London and the South East will not benefit from it. I don't think the Tories have the political strength to push through another massive rail infrastructure project even if they wanted to.

of those that don't benefit from Crossrail 2 there are a lot that will have benefited from Thameslink and Crossrail. As such that's not a major problem.

Crossrail 2 will benefit a lot of people, chances are a significant number of the getting on for 200 million passenger entries, exits and interchanges at Waterloo and Victoria which makes up a reasonable percentage of the pager movements on the whole rail network (1,700 million passenger journeys). That's before you take into account Clapham Junction which or any of the other stations that you would add to those numbers.

It wide benefit quite a large area, including extra long distance services to Southampton, Salisbury, Portsmouth and even possibly Exeter.