New South Western franchise: Awarded to First/MTR

[SpacePhoenix]

Industry insider sources have firm belief either Siemens or Bombardier will have won the order for the new 750 carriages for First MTR South Western. All will need to be delivered and accepted into service by December 2020 timetable change.

When did the ITT go out? I don't remember seeing any mention of the ITT having gone out

 

[HH]

I'll believe that when I see it, considering how long it's taken to get the 707s delivered (and they haven't even entered service yet) from when they were ordered I think it's going to be highly optimistic to have the entire fleet in service by the December 2020 timetable. I would wager a fair sum that there will still be 455s and 458s rattling around at least some parts of the network by end of the new Franchise.

Well First/MTR were wagering otherwise. Of course that may change if the franchise start is delayed.

 

[Goldfish62]

I'll believe that when I see it, considering how long it's taken to get the 707s delivered (and they haven't even entered service yet) from when they were ordered I think it's going to be highly optimistic to have the entire fleet in service by the December 2020 timetable. I would wager a fair sum that there will still be 455s and 458s rattling around at least some parts of the network by end of the new Franchise.

Seriously?! GA have got to replace their entire fleet within the sane timescale. Ie award was a year earlier and so is the train replacement deadline. What special issues do you think will arise on South Western, especially as the new rolling stock will be a single batch of identical stock, albeit in two different lengths?

 

[47802]

When did the ITT go out? I don't remember seeing any mention of the ITT having gone out

When did you hear about ITT for many of the new rolling stock orders for recent franchise bids, remember these are private companies, unlike public ITT placed by the DFT and TFL etc.

I know there are also comments floating around which seem to suggest Bombardier have won it, but of course that could just be another rumour without foundation.

.

 

[3141]

Seriously?! GA have got to replace their entire fleet within the sane timescale. Ie award was a year earlier and so is the train replacement deadline. What special issues do you think will arise on South Western, especially as the new rolling stock will be a single batch of identical stock, albeit in two different lengths?

If the train builder delivers two trains every three weeks, it needs 135 weeks. Allowing a couple of weeks for fault-free testing of the final deliveries, that means delivery should start early in May 2018. They've got to set up a supply chain first. Relatively easy if they are already producing a similar train, e.g. Aventra, though then the capacity of their factory and of their suppliers' factories may become an issue. But it's clearly possible.

If deliveries were one per week the first one needn't arrive till early in 2019.

There's a big advantage in buying a train which already has approval for UK use.

There's a lot of work First/MTR will need to undertake. Driver training, maintenance training, depot modification for the new stock (they need to be able to empty those toilets), driver schedules for test-running. Storing the new trains before they enter service, storing the old ones before they depart to wherever they're going.

I've no doubt that it can all be done if everything goes to plan, and the computers at First/MTR HQ will already be hot with Microsoft Project (or whatever they use), but there are also a lot of things that might intervene.

 

[Goldfish62]

If the train builder delivers two trains every three weeks, it needs 135 weeks. Allowing a couple of weeks for fault-free testing of the final deliveries, that means delivery should start early in May 2018. They've got to set up a supply chain first. Relatively easy if they are already producing a similar train, e.g. Aventra, though then the capacity of their factory and of their suppliers' factories may become an issue. But it's clearly possible.

If deliveries were one per week the first one needn't arrive till early in 2019.

There's a big advantage in buying a train which already has approval for UK use.

There's a lot of work First/MTR will need to undertake. Driver training, maintenance training, depot modification for the new stock (they need to be able to empty those toilets), driver schedules for test-running. Storing the new trains before they enter service, storing the old ones before they depart to wherever they're going.

I've no doubt that it can all be done if everything goes to plan, and the computers at First/MTR HQ will already be hot with Microsoft Project (or whatever they use), but there are also a lot of things that might intervene.

Absolutely, but something would have to go catastrophically wrong for the programme to run at least five years late as is being suggested by some.

Personally I would think the December 2018 deadline for the 442s is more challenging, given the retractioning.

 

[Monty]

Absolutely, but something would have to go catastrophically wrong for the programme to run at least five years late as is being suggested by some.

Personally I would think the December 2018 deadline for the 442s is more challenging, given the retractioning.

Actually it's very easy for things to go wrong, you only need the fault free running to be set back a few times for that whole timetable to be thrown out. I should know as I've been involved on the 707s and it has not been plain sailing, the plan wholly replace the suburban fleet in the time frame given is highly ambitious.

And generally speaking the fault free running take months, not weeks.

 

[adamello]

Thanks - very interesting. On Monday it will be eight weeks since the award to First/MTR was announced, and I think we still don't know if the contract has actually been signed, whether or not there is to be a change to the starting date so that it would be after the Waterloo works are complete, and who is going to provide the new rolling stock. Siemens would certainly fit with much of what's already there (and they might even modify the 707s, though I don't seriously think that in view of reports that the leasing costs for the 707s are relatively high). Like Siemens, Bombardier have in the Aventra a product that should be well tested by the time the new SW franchise starts to receive it, and I'd be amused if my earlier suggestion that hey might get a version based on the Crossrail trains turned out to be right.

this is the website that is publically viewable with information directed at staff, but useful for all with interest. http://firstmtrswstaff.com/

It was last updated 17th May, and still lists 20th August as the start date.

 

[HH]

this is the website that is publically viewable with information directed at staff, but useful for all with interest. http://firstmtrswstaff.com/

It was last updated 17th May, and still lists 20th August as the start date.

Announcements aren't made until deals are done and dusted.

 

[HH]

When did you hear about ITT for many of the new rolling stock orders for recent franchise bids, remember these are private companies, unlike public ITT placed by the DFT and TFL etc.

I know there are also comments floating around which seem to suggest Bombardier have won it, but of course that could just be another rumour without foundation.

As a bidder First/MTR would have used the best cost they had received prior to the bid; my guess is that would have been Aventras at the time, which could be the basis of the rumours. However, they probably left themselves wriggle room in case they could get a BAFO from Siemens.

 

[CosherB]

When did the ITT go out? I don't remember seeing any mention of the ITT having gone out

As others have pointed out, you don't have the divine right to be told about procurement plans by private enterprises. This is not an OJEU process.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As others have pointed out, you don't have the divine right to be told about procurement plans by private enterprises. This is not an OJEU process.

Not only that, but a TOC can just buy trains from a particular manufacturer because they like them. A tendering process is usual in business to keep costs down, but they don't have to.

 

[swt_passenger]

Stagecoach did issue a thing called a "Prior Information Notice" for possible new stock for a number of upcoming future franchises, and it was in the public domain at the time, but there was never any follow up ITTs AFAICT.

It was a sort of shopping list in the form of a "Framework Agreement" and there was a thread about it here: http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=124247

There seem to be many other options than an open tender. If a TOC makes a negotiated purchase of a fleet they still have to make a statement via the OJEU that they have done so if it is above a certain price, but I think it is only to allow the rest of the market to be aware for competition rules.

 

[Bornin1980s]

For the new fleet, I'd think Siemens would be the obvious choice. Apart from the unsuccessful Alstom Junipers, all post privatisation SWT units have been from that company. It could also allow the 707s to be retained, with one carriage replaced by a Lavatory carriage from the new build.

 

[AlexNL]

It could also allow the 707s to be retained, with one carriage replaced by a Lavatory carriage from the new build.

Rumour has it that First/MTR don't want the 707's because they consider their leasing costs to be too expensive. If that's the case, the only way in which the 707's will be retained is when the operator can negotiate a better deal with Angel Trains.

That could pave the way for follow-on orders (and swapping out coaches for newly-built ones that have a toilet) but is by no means a given. First/MTR might as well order Aventras or Civity's if that gives them a better deal.

Note, a better deal can come down to more than just the purchase/lease price alone.

 

[swt_passenger]

For the new fleet, I'd think Siemens would be the obvious choice. Apart from the unsuccessful Alstom Junipers, all post privatisation SWT units have been from that company. It could also allow the 707s to be retained, with one carriage replaced by a Lavatory carriage from the new build.

All the previous indications are that the 707s are going off lease. Whatever SWT may have done in the past is not a guide to the future.

 

[fgwrich]

All the previous indications are that the 707s are going off lease. Whatever SWT may have done in the past is not a guide to the future.

While that is a true and fair statement, First's rolling stock choices have for the large, been handed to Siemens.

As with most franchise based issues, it'll no doubt come down to a waiting and seeing. Although with Bombardier fairly busy for the next few years with Aventras, while Siemens must be coming fairly close to the end of the 700/707s* and no promised Greater Anglian work, would surely wanting to submit a competitive bid to First SWR.

*GN units excluded.

 

[swt_passenger]

While that is a true and fair statement, First's rolling stock choices have for the large, been handed to Siemens.

I was just thinking of the latest GWR 387s as well though...

 

[dgl]

Siemens would make sense in a lot of ways as it allows a pretty much single manufacturer for their electric fleet (and really only a 2 manufacturer fleet once the 458's are gone) and the advantages that gives.
Plus the quality of siemens is a known good standard even though it seems Wimbledon could get ANY stock reliable.

 

[F Great Eastern]

First used to favour Siemens but in recent years they've gone nowhere near them.

CAF are the favourites for this.

 

[TEW]

Siemens would make sense in a lot of ways as it allows a pretty much single manufacturer for their electric fleet (and really only a 2 manufacturer fleet once the 458's are gone) and the advantages that gives.
Plus the quality of siemens is a known good standard even though it seems Wimbledon could get ANY stock reliable.

But the benefits are not as great as they would be if it was 5 years ago and Siemens were still offering Desiros. Desiros and Desiros Cities are not compatible with each other. And the new fleet will be larger than the current Desiro fleet is, so whatever First go with, it's not exactly going to be a micro fleet. I'd imagine cost will be a big factor in First's decision, I don't think we should really take what Stagecoach have done in the past with SWT or what other First TOCs have done as a guide.

 

[hwl]

First used to favour Siemens but in recent years they've gone nowhere near them.

CAF are the favourites for this.

You might be in for surprise then...

 

[hwl]

But the benefits are not as great as they would be if it was 5 years ago and Siemens were still offering Desiros. Desiros and Desiros Cities are not compatible with each other. And the new fleet will be larger than the current Desiro fleet is, so whatever First go with, it's not exactly going to be a micro fleet. I'd imagine cost will be a big factor in First's decision, I don't think we should really take what Stagecoach have done in the past with SWT or what other First TOCs have done as a guide.

Exactly - Desiro City reliability has not been good so far (very poor MTIN) along with technical and spec issues and higher cost than competitors. Aventra for Crossrail was about 7% per 20m car equivalent cheaper than Desiro City for Thameslink. As this is a normal ROSCO franchise deal (not manufacturer arranged finance etc.) Siemens financial fire power matters less on this deal with more weighting on manufacturing & maintenance costs.

300 job cuts recently announced in Krefeld might suggest what didn't happen.

 

[hwl]

All the previous indications are that the 707s are going off lease. Whatever SWT may have done in the past is not a guide to the future.

and what may have been the right choice X years ago might not the right choice now as things change.

 

[cjmillsnun]

Exactly - Desiro City reliability has not been good so far (very poor MTIN) along with technical and spec issues and higher cost than competitors. Aventra for Crossrail was about 7% per 20m car equivalent cheaper than Desiro City for Thameslink. As this is a normal ROSCO franchise deal (not manufacturer arranged finance etc.) Siemens financial fire power matters less on this deal with more weighting on manufacturing & maintenance costs.

300 job cuts recently announced in Krefeld might suggest what didn't happen.

It is far far too early to say what Desiro City reliability is going to be. IIRC there were issues with Desiro UK when introduced, but they got ironed out.

If Siemens can get the costs down, then it will be a solid choice, and Angel I'm sure can be persuaded to bring the leasing costs down as it will be more cost effective for them to be on lease than off, so the 707s aren't completely off the cards (yet).

 

[Suraggu]

Exactly - Desiro City reliability has not been good so far (very poor MTIN) along with technical and spec issues and higher cost than competitors. Aventra for Crossrail was about 7% per 20m car equivalent cheaper than Desiro City for Thameslink. As this is a normal ROSCO franchise deal (not manufacturer arranged finance etc.) Siemens financial fire power matters less on this deal with more weighting on manufacturing & maintenance costs.

300 job cuts recently announced in Krefeld might suggest what didn't happen.

You bring up a valid point. The winning bidder would surely know by now and the job cull at Siemens would suggest they are not in line for the tender.

 

[HH]

I'd have a flutter on Aventras myself. The more so since the pound took a hammering on the Brexit vote.

 

[jopsuk]

I would have thought that any job losses connected to not winning orders yet to be announced would not be announced until the order is public- or rather, announced to the financial markets. These things are carefully managed.

 

[hwl]

I'd have a flutter on Aventras myself. The more so since the pound took a hammering on the Brexit vote.

So would I (i suspect the bookies would close the book if both of us actually had a flutter.)

The only nagging thought I have: the rumoured December 2020 date for all new stock delivery would be very difficult for Derby, by April 2021 would be do-able though. 707s retained till May 2021 and that would still be almost true in that the existing old stock leaving would have gone.

 

[hwl]

I would have thought that any job losses connected to not winning orders yet to be announced would not be announced until the order is public- or rather, announced to the financial markets. These things are carefully managed.

Well they have been announced just no connection drawn in the announcement the reason was efficiency savings. Siemens haven't got much non ICE work beyond 2018 and the 717s.

Bombardier and Stadler picked up the recent Austria contracts for example.