It is still a little concerning that no new DDA mods have been added to the ATW fleet in the last few years. 2020 is just over 2 and a half years away!!
I think the best thing for ATW would be to retain the pacers, making cheap mods to get them past the deadline if needed - It would just take a little bit of pressure off in the short term. If they are expected to stay another 10 years, maybe take the 144s from Northern when they go off lease and replace the 142s with them. (Or retain the valleys 142s to help crowding in South Wales until new stock is available)
So, what are the 10 most popular destinations from Wrexham? I would guess at the following, but it really is a guess and not a very informed one, and I can only think of 8 destinations before Cardiff:
- Chester
- Birmingham
- Shrewsbury
- Liverpool
- Manchester
- Warrington
- London
- Leeds
- Cardiff
Outside the metro, my map is mostly only showing 0.5tph increases over what you gave (although my definition of the S.E. Wales Metro area is larger than WAG's)
What do Forum members think are the most likely options for extra services in the franchise area?
North Wales Coast - 3tph (my map) vice 2.5tph
Chester-Manchester/Manchester Airport- Unchanged on my map (expcept transfering stops to Northern Connect); re. the airport, I think either the off-peak service should use the current peak path in one direction (turning at Piccadilly in much less than the current 50+mins) or all go to the airport except when turning short at MAN to form the peak extras
Wrexham Central-Bidston - Unchanged on my map
Chester to Crewe - frequency as now (but extended on my map)
Chester to Shrewsbury- 1tph to 2tph + 3xGerald, one the biggest increases on my map
Shrewsbury to BHM INTL - 1 tph as now
Pwllheli- Machynlleth- as now
Aberystwyth to Shrewsbury - full hourly
Marches (SHR-CDF) - 2tph as you suggest (+ 3x Gerald on my map), but with Metro extras to Hereford vice Abergavenny
Cheltenham Spa - Cardiff - full hourly
Cardiff - West Wales - 1tph (as you suggest, but with extras MFH-SWA on my map)
Swansea-Pembroke Dock - frequency as now, but with extras CMN-SWA and in summer
There's actually more than one problem there. One problem is the long-distance fleet (158s, 175s and mark 3s), where the most-affordable option would probably be to get the mark 3s a derrogation and hang on until 2021/22 (using cascaded Turbostars to shift a 158 or two off the Maesteg/Cheltenham/Ebbw Vale diagrams) by which time options of mark 4 coaches or possibly a new design of DMU should be available. The only alternative I can see is if it is possible to tag onto TPE's mrk5a order. Could a follow-on order be delivered in 2019 if the winning bidder commited to it when the W&B contract is awarded (due Feb 2018 I believe)?
Whether mrk4s, mrk5s or new DMUs, the extra fleet gives you 4-car trains (and maybe some 5-car ones) to displace the 3-car 175s onto 2-car routes. The 2-car 175s you either subject to some 458/5-style hacking (either to add UEGs or convert half the driving vehicles to intermediates) to make more 4-car trains or just stick them on HOWL and Conwy Valley as they are.
If you do the latter, you help with the second problem which is the regional fleet. Currently, ATW has no appropriate stock for this; the 150s are no good for a long trek (too uncomfortable) and neither are the 153s in their current state. Either bring in the ex-Anglia and ex-ScotRail 156s or some extra 153s. In the latter case, strip the interiors completely and reconfigure with airline-style seating throught with only one row per window (it's the only way of getting comfort and window alignment in a 153, a table bay is too big for the windows and with the current seat-pitch the airline seating is too uncomfortable). How many you need depends on what you do with the 2-car 175s.
The third, and probably hardest, problem is the metro fleet. Could a winning bidder sign a lease in Jan 2018 for bi-mode 319s for delivery Oct 2018 giving a month or two for staff training before a Dec 2018 introduction of 319s? The Turbostars mentioned earlier will help for the outer-metro, but the inner-metro needs about a third of the 150s and all the Pacers removed from the franchise by the time electrification is completed.
So, what are the 10 most popular destinations from Wrexham? I would guess at the following, but it really is a guess and not a very informed one, and I can only think of 8 destinations before Cardiff:
- Chester
- Birmingham
- Shrewsbury
- Liverpool
- Manchester
- Warrington
- London
- Leeds
- Cardiff
Add the word "Airport" to a couple of those destinations as well.
Where would Bristol go in the list?
While an hourly service via the Marches would be overkill, it deserves better than the number 0.
From Chester and Shrewsbury and Hereford, I bet Bristol beats Cardiff.
"Warrington" is also proxy for "the rest of the northwest and Scotland".
It's a more significant interchange point from North Wales than is generally recognised.
In FNW days there was a through service from Chester via Wigan to Blackpool (a 175 positioning move really), it's a pity there are no options that way today.
I wonder how many ATW users demanded through services to Smethwick Galton Bridge and East Didsbury?
They got them anyway.
Statistics tend to record specific stations so if we take Bolton as an example they'll be passengers going to Manchester Victoria, Deansgate, Manchester Oxford Road and Manchester Piccadilly, even before you consider stations just outside like Salford Central and Levenshulme. While for journeys to London the vast majority will be Euston, which puts London Euston higher up in the list than you'd expect.
We have the choice of going into Marylebone as well from Newtown. Off Peak is £68.00 to Euston, Super Off Peak into Marylebone is £39.50. Its probably in ratio of 6 to Euston for every one to Marylebone.
Marylebone tends to attract the single leisure travelers more than the family groups. The business market tends to go for Euston as do family groups/seniors and most people having to travel via London onward to elsewhere.
When I boarded at Aberdovey earlier this year, a passenger got on at Machynlleth and asked for a return to Marylebone. I was quite surprised at the time but it seems to be much more common than I thought.
They've been promoting it quite a lot recently, helped by both TOCs being part of Arriva and having a specific routeing on ATW+CH.
There's a seasonal ATW 55-plus promotion that way to too (not valid into Euston).
The "Via Birmingham" tickets work into Paddington via Oxford as well.
The "Any Permitted" fare also works via Crewe, which can be faster (and avoids the trudge through the West Mids).
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A Bristol to Hereford service could work, though the connection times are quite good at Newport anyway. Usually at least 7-10 mins interchange time at Newport off ex-Taunton services for ATW Manchester Piccadilly services, and about 7 mins on alternate hours from ex-Portsmouth Harbour services and ATW Holyhead ones. You could run 1tp2h Bristol to Hereford (Calling at Filton Abbey Wood, Patchway*, Severn Tunnel Junction, Cwmbran, Pontypool*, Abergavenny and Hereford. [* = peak time only]) on the other alternate hours if you wanted to. Not sure how popular they'd be though and there's already 4tph through the Severn Tunnel so some trains might have to have added dwell time or reverse at Bristol Parkway.
any Permitted 2 tight changes to get to Euston 10 mins quicker for extra £ means it's usually internet purchasers who end up buying it. No one on the ground does. The journey planners usually spit out Wolves and Stafford as change points!
The super off peak to Marylebone is very good value from the Cambrian. However on weekdays you can't use it on first train down and must leave between 1000 & 1600. The off peak return via Birmingham is a lot more flexible the only restriction being you can't leave Euston before 0905 on a weekday with it.
There's also a range of destinations "beyond London" with the same PV restriction code via High Wycombe. Newtown to Brighton Super off peak is a bargain @ 60.00.
most of the London tickets I sell are laborious split AP tickets into Euston for lesuire travellers. People panic at being told change stations in Birmingham even though in many ways it's easier than going out then back through the barriers at New St to change platforms.
Monmouthshire/Newport/ Torfaen are close enough to be effected by the draw of the city region of Bristol as well as Cardiff hence there is demand for direct trains.
I regularly get offered Caersws - Euston with changes at Wolverhampton and Stafford, but the last change always looks a bit tight, so always change at New St, and I get in not a lot later.
Never have a problem changing at New St by using the B end stairs.
Return always gets me to change at International.
Can't complain at £44.90!
Have done the Marylebone trip once when I wasn't in a hurry to get to a mid-morning meeting and used the Virgin Shrewsbury - Euston on a Sunday if staying overnight in London. Problem with that is the wait at Shrewsbury because the Cambrian doesn't link that well.
Occasionally go up by catching at Ludlow, changing at Newport, if the meetings start after 1200, so I can guarantee to get home, but that costs over £60!!
I have a couple of friends who travel to London every week and they take the ksame route from Caersws as me.[/QUOTE
The Cambrian/London fares are good value whichever route you take. You can get to Euston @ 1015 and stay to 1843 and get back. Having a later last departure from Shrewsbury would muck it up as Virgin would love to slap peak hour restrictions on Cambrian fares.
People panic at being told change stations in Birmingham even though in many ways it's easier than going out then back through the barriers at New St to change platforms.
I agree with that, I haven't been to the new New Street much, but on each occasion I have struggled (and I consider myself reasonably good at stations!). The walk to Moor Street is a doddle.
I know several people who commute from Gwent to Bristol daily. They reckon they still save money when you take into account the difference in the cost of houses with Bristol.
The Cambrian/London fares are good value whichever route you take. You can get to Euston @ 1015 and stay to 1843 and get back. Having a later last departure from Shrewsbury would muck it up as Virgin would love to slap peak hour restrictions on Cambrian fares.
I agree with that, I haven't been to the new New Street much, but on each occasion I have struggled (and I consider myself reasonably good at stations!). The walk to Moor Street is a doddle.
You can guess what the Bristolian answer to that is I imagine?![]()
Monmouthshire/Newport/ Torfaen are close enough to be effected by the draw of the city region of Bristol as well as Cardiff hence there is demand for direct trains.
I know several people who commute from Gwent to Bristol daily. They reckon they still save money when you take into account the difference in the cost of houses with Bristol.
I don't have figures, I can only speak for the tickets I check and sell, but there is certainly quite a large market for people travelling from south of Hereford towards Bristol (and also in the rush hours to and from Filton Abbey Wood).
I don't have figures, I can only speak for the tickets I check and sell, but there is certainly quite a large market for people travelling from south of Hereford towards Bristol (and also in the rush hours to and from Filton Abbey Wood). North of there there are still people travelling (mostly availing of the cheaper route "Via Hereford" tickets) but not as much as from the stations in Wales
Another instance of poor Welsh translation is below. The Welsh displays an out-of-office message in response to an email to translate the text in to Welsh.
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WTF? This is crazy. Evidently the council's Welsh translator doesn't speak Welsh ha ha. Absolutely ridiculous and frankly rather embarrassing!
Probably would be a market for direct trains between Hereford and Bristol then!
Looking at the current timetable at around 18:00 as an example would have to depart at around 18:08. It can't go before that because trains depart northbound at 17.54 and 18:00 and if it departed at 17:50, it would catch up with the Bristol Parkway stopper. Would be less of a problem once the Filton Bank is quad tracked however. There's a service to Chester that this service would run quite close behind at Cwmbran, but the Chester service doesn't stop at Pontypool. This Chester service doesn't run hourly throughout the day.
I've got no idea of planning but I thought I'd have a go - this shouldn't clash with any (passenger) services at least. The biggest gripe is the 18:03 to Avonmouth that stops at Lawrence Hill and Stapleton Road on the hours this service would run
(M-F)
Bristol Temple Meads d 18.08
Filton Abbey Wood d 18.15
Patchway d 18.19
Severn Tunnel Junction d 18.31
Cwmbran d 18:53
Pontypool d 18:58
Abergavenny d 19:09
Hereford a 19:36
Non-peak service
Bristol Temple Meads d 14.08
Filton Abbey Wood d 14.15
Severn Tunnel Junction d 14:29
Cwmbran d 14:51
Abergavenny d 15:06
Hereford a 15:33
I don't really have a clue but looked at the existing timetables for timings.