Where does that 5% figure come from?
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Where are the new jobs coming from?
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Where does that 5% figure come from?
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Peter Mugridge
Veteran Member
Direct personal experience.
So prey tell where are these new jobs coming from? All i ever really hear and read about is job cuts and "modernisation" programs. There are hundreds and hundreds of jobs being lost through bank closures currently. There are people on here like you who say that the economy always adapts and new jobs created. So can you please give an idea where these jobs are being created to cover those lost?
There is one forum member who says they are annoyed by people being employed in jobs they feel are unnecessary, and would rather they were got rid of and do jobs that are needed in the economy. Well I cannot see where these masses of jobs are being created, so looking for people who are more optimistic to detail where the new jobs are being created because I just cannot see it.
WelshBluebird
Established Member
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Except places need admin and management staff. Without them, "productive worker" members of staff have to swallow the admin and management work. The fact that work has to get done doesn't disappear if you reduce or get rid of admin / management.
As above. Get rid of admin / management staff and you just end up with everyone else having to chip in (and have time taken away from their actual work) to deal with it so you create an inefficiency.
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If there isn't work to do then what is the point of creating jobs?
Why don't we look at how society fundamentally functions, and ask - "is there a need for everyone to be employed? Why don't we have Universal Basic Income?"
Perhaps you should read some other news sources if you think there's only job cuts going on and 'modernisation' (which btw is something that has consistently been on going throughout all of history). If what you were saying is true, then combined with our increasing population unemployment rates would be sky high, but they're not, they're at record lows.
Who do you think is creating the barista jobs? Coffee shops
Who do you think is creating the jobs in ICT? ICT companies
Who do you think is creating the jobs in social care? Local NHS and care homes
Who do you think is creating the teaching assistant jobs? Schools
And for other jobs, I suggest reading my previous post again.
There are more people in work in this country than there ever have been. Indeed there are 5 million more jobs than there were 20 years ago when the Internet reveloution kicked off.
If all you ever hear about is job cuts, you need to widen your reading. A quick Google search for the last 24 hours reveals:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/20/marks-spencer-open-36-new-shops-shut-six-stores/
http://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/...-to-create-250-jobs-in-peterborough-1-7923979
http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/s...50-city-jobs/story-30278495-detail/story.html
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/b...ing-100-jobs-with-4m-investment-35633194.html
http://www.staffordshirenewsletter....rd-and-stone/story-30278505-detail/story.html
There's more but I can't be bothered pasting!
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Very valid point. But I doubt that some political parties would go for that. We live to work in this country rather than working to live.
Barista jobs are extremely poorly paid and are in danger of being got rid of as well. ICT companies are a very valid point but is there really going to be enough jobs created in ICT to replace all those lost to automation? Social care is a bit of a red herring as I've seen that around the world tech companies are already trying to capitalise on this market. And as far as teaching goes, the role of the teaching assistant will sadly be gone soon as our children will be taught via tablets. Looking at the way tech and automation is in full blown attack mode on all fronts taking jobs away I was rather hoping you would shead some light on new jobs that are being created. Expansion in existing industries is not going to replace all those lost.
It is very pleasing to see those new jobs in the economy but none to them are what I would consider mass new employment. Just a handful here, a handful there. Bank branch closures alone are costing the economy thousands of jobs. And when you say that unemployment is at a very low level I do accept it is low but when you take a closer look at the figures they are somewhat misleading. Lots of those who are now considered "economically active" are on short fixed term contracts or on zero hours contracts with no guarantee or work. Lots of others are in this so called "gig economy" where they are considered self employed, so have no employment rights, pension or holiday entitlement. The very very concerning stats of the economy that has been built over the last five years or so is that real wage growth is lower than inflation. We are all statistically poorer than we were a decade ago. The current economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending of which most is on credit. The BoE has said it is very concerned by the amount of debt households are in. The economy needs lots of good stable full time jobs. With the way things are going they are fewer and fewer. I'm hoping that people can detail where these new good stable full time jobs are coming from.
Yes it will, history shows us the economy will adapt as it has always done. Bare in mind we all used to be farmworkers before mechanisation. Then most of us would have worked in factories, until we were no longer needed and now most people are in service sector jobs. It's human nature to be pessimistic about the future but history shows us that, new industries will come along and some existing industries will increase.
From 1992-2014 in the UK there has been an...
580% increase in teaching and educational support assistants
183% increase in welfare, housing, youth and community workers
168% increase in care workers and home carers
This trend will only continue as our quality of life improves and more value is put in the likes of social care and teaching.
Since the internet... most office jobs could now be done at home, business meetings could be conducted over Skype and people do not need to leave the house to meet up with friends and family as there's so many ways to communicate now.
Yet what do we see, most people still work in offices and train & airline travel has both continued to grow. Technology could replace those things but it does not, in fact all the evidence shows it enhances human interaction. Tablets will help in the classroom but there is no way they will replace teachers and teaching assistants (even though they are capable of doing so). Social interaction is invaluable and that is why we travel more than ever and jobs like care workers and teaching assistants will continue to grow, it is not some 'red herring'.
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Talk for yourself!
I enjoy the jobs that i do (it sounds like you don't?), but it's not true to say i live to work, and i still have plenty of time to enjoy leisure activities.
I thought you said you are a train driver, in which case I'm surprised you don't have plenty of disposable income to do things you enjoy?
Absolute nonsense. Do you even know what teaching assistants do?
RichmondCommu
Established Member
You're ignoring the possibility that he might have a mortgage to pay and a family to support?
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Well thank you for your input but you have not answered the question at all. Just saying a cante blanche "the economy always adapts" doesn't cut the mustard in this case I'm afraid. Companies are contually finding new ways to do the same amount of business with a small payroll. In my eyes that is hugely self defeating. The less money being pumped into the economy through wages means less people to buy your products. With current rates of modernisation I simply do not believe there are enough jobs to cover those that are being lost, unless there are new well paid secure jobs being created and I just don't see where they are. Where are the new jobs coming from?
Yes I'm a train driver. I enjoy a secure job with decent pay. Although my family life suffers as the shifts I have to work means I'm very tired a lot of the time on my days off.
But I am not selfish, and I am not narrow minded to not see the big picture. Just because I enjoy a good job and a decent salary does not mean that I am not concerned by the plight of others in the wider economy.
I have already said new jobs will come from social interaction such as social care and teaching, as well as increased spending on leisure - you just choose to ignore it because it doesn't fit your narrow minded view. Bare in mind well-paid knowledge based industries like consulting and accounting are growing too.
Landowners in the middle ages and businesses in the Victoria era continually tried to find new ways to have a small payroll. Yet we haven't had mass unemployment since the Victorian era. You seem to think businesses trying to make profit is a new concept, it isn't. The only evidence available is history, and the facts are that economies are fluid and have always adapted to technological change, which have led to increases in quality of life.
The value of social interaction has already been outlined and that is where the jobs are going to continue emerging but your only argument is silliness about how tablets are going to replace teachers which is absolute nonsense. We have significantly more time and money for leisure than ever before and that will only continue. We could eat all our meals from a vending machine but we increasingly go to restaurants because we enjoy the opportunity to speak to others and interact with staff.
It's obviously difficult to say which new industries are going to emerge, people in the 1980s could not foresee how the internet was going to change everyone's lives.
Do you think every industry we will ever have is already here?
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Well I'm minded to take what you say with a massive pinch of salt because I've read that accounting is one the most likely industries to be completely automated! Yes leisure is one area that is unlikely to be automated and may expand lots but I highly doubt it will make up the shortfall. We could go demand to be served by a cashier in a supermarket or bank but many don't. Some are adamant they prefer being served by machines wherever possible. In restaurants they are already experimenting with robot waiters so can foresee that being forced through by companies wanting to reduce the wage bill. Yes it is difficult for us to foresee what might occur in decades to come but automation is having a devastating effect now. Inflation is outstripping wage growth now. We need the new stable well paid jobs now and I just don't see where they are being created on the scale required. I think a basic citizen income is definitely an idea that needs serious consideration.
When Amazon, Ocado and other big warehouses (I'm sure one reason Tesco and others are closing older warehouses) adopt next-generation automation, we're going to see TENS of thousands of jobs go.
Call centres will be replaced by computers that can respond to voice in a much more natural way. Companies already have AI bots to do webchats, and I'm sure many have had spam calls from computers that try and filter calls about PPI or accidents to companies, and act like real people - responding perfectly to what you say.
We definitely do need new jobs in the same sort of numbers, but given automation and AI can replace even legal professionals, there are in fact a number of professions at high-risk of obsolescence. Sure you'll need (low paid) admin people in many, perhaps self employed contractors with no holiday/sick pay, but a tiny tiny percentage of those currently in work.
Yes, some jobs are considered safe either because of the face-to-face contact with the public, or that a computer can't easily do as well. I've heard about dentistry being pretty safe (at least for a generation or two), designers, architects (within reason - as a computer can do a lot of the hard graft that earns the money - so it may become less skilled, and therefore lower paid).
Technology will come to the railway, making route knowledge redundant and so drivers can be trained quicker, and become less protected.
The list goes on.
Ultimately, some sort of top up from the Government will likely be needed to ensure those who have little to no work can still buy the products that these machines and robots will make/pick/distribute.
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Peter Mugridge
Veteran Member
Slightly missing the point - if the admin and back office functions are being done properly you do not need a high percentage of such staff to support the productive / front line staff.
If you have a decent iProc ( computerised procurement system ) like Maconomy or Oracle and the staff are keeping track of purchase orders and invoices with a properly thought out spreadsheet system plus a standard format of request for the productive staff to ask for a PO to be raised then the effort involved on that side of things is minimal.
It is not unfeasible for just two full time staff to keep on top of that in an office of nearly 100 in total; the other administrative functions - if properly planned - can be equally efficient.
And that's what the big companies don't seem to get! They want to eliminate as many wage bills as possible but what are they going to do when there isn't any money in the economy to buy their products or wages have got so low because of the abundance of available Labour that no one can afford their products!
Robots doing waitering in restaurants is just like tablets replacing teachers all over again. Yes it can be done, but no people won't want it.
For instance you've cited accountants and lawyers (and doctors is another one) as being particularly susceptible to automation in their current form but this wrongly assumes they will not adapt. Automation will take over the tedious bits of their job, but there is substantial parts of their jobs which cannot be done by AI, hence why they are still growing industries. Their jobs (as well as many others) changed a lot with the introduction of computers but they have adapted and are still as well-paid and important roles as ever. I really can't see them disappearing anytime soon.
GusB
Established Member
This being my line of work, I'm sad to say that this has been happening at quite a rapid pace. As an "outsourcer", I'm used to being shunted from one contract to another, but as the online offering gets better, the amount of human interaction required for run-of-the-mill enquiries lessens.
One company took us on to act as switchboard operators because customers were unhappy with the "press 1 for this and 2 for that" nonsense, but as soon as the automation was mature enough, it was bye bye.
I think you grossly underestimate the scale to which current jobs will be under threat. I went into my bank branch recently which they have refurbished and halved the number of cashier desks and put in loads and loads of machines. I asked why they had gotten rid of the cashier desks as the queue to be served was enormous, and was told their head office had decided to do it and told all staff to encourage customers to use the machines as much as possible and to "educate" customers away from wanting to use the cashier desks. It's quite clear lots and lots of people didn't want to use the machines but that hasn't stopped the bank trying to force the issue, no doubt so they can ditch staff and reduce their wage bill. So even if people don't want it, companies will force the issue. As others have said thousands of jobs are on the line once completely automated warehouses are introduced. I am seriously starting to believe that Government should be starting to plan towards a basic state citizen income, rather than ploughing public money into tech that will make more people redundant. That is so self defeating it's unreal. Plough public money into something that will result in a small income tax take and less money into the economy, utterly ridiculous.
And this is why I'm annoyed the Government is ploughing public money into tech that will inevitably make more people redundant. Totally and completely self defeating.
RichmondCommu
Established Member
Two poor examples in my opinion as both are low wage jobs and neither generate any wealth for the economy.
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One day, people on Earth won't need to have jobs in the way we seem them today.
Back in the very distant past, there wasn't any such thing as a "job", before the development of civil society.
The future undoubtedly doesn't look the same as things do today. We've already seen big changes, such as the rise of the "personal brand" among ordinary people rather than just public figures, and the expansion of the gig economy.
The question is how these changes are facilitated in a smooth way rather than trying to put a halt on everything and turn society back into how it was in the 1970s.
Problem is, in a global economy, how could any Government change this? Corbyn gets in and decides we need to keep all the jobs and axe automation? Fine and dandy, except we're then unable to compete at all with anyone else.
Of course, if we're going to build a wall around the UK (or England/Wales) post Brexit, maybe we can do it our way. I suspect we won't.
Automation is good up to a point. Stopping you or I having to do laborious tasks. That's what we've had computers for, and so many things are made easier day to day. Eventually computers can replace a lot of us entirely.
Those who have jobs will probably be low paid and not require many skills, if any.
And I've been to a restaurant where food is delivered to your table automatically, and I don't mean Yo Sushi, but the same sort of idea - you order from a terminal, get your food delivered by mechanical means, then put empty dishes aside for collection later.
All you have are members of staff to clean up, and are unlikely to receive tips.
Question to those who believe the economy always adapts to tech evolution. If that is the case why are we seeing destitution around some parts of the country which used to have thriving industries? Arguably tech and automation has caused huge amounts of poverty where major employment hubs have disappeared. Trump got elected as US President on the back of promise to bring jobs back to the US. I'm starting to believe the answer to my original question is basically none. There are no *new* jobs being created. So I definitely don't believe the Government should be pumping money into tech that will make even more people redundant. And I more than ever believe we should be trying to keep as many jobs in the economy as possible, as there are no new stable well paid jobs for these people to go to. I think either this Government or the next one will have a very very big problem on their hands.
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