This what what Stagecoach say they have done or are committed to delivery in the case of the 30%...
So South West Trains were committed to a capacity increase by 2018 and First are committed by 2020. Were South West Trains being unrealistic?
I'm not sure that Stagecoach are promising the same thing as First/MTR. And neither are promising a 30% increase in actual physical vehicles. What it could be made up of is:
1. An actual increase in physical vehicles. I doubt that this could be achieved by December 2018 from new build RS and there's not much suitable existing RS out there going spare.
2. An increase in availability. I expect that both will have promised this. Whether they can deliver it every day is another matter. Won't be a huge change (5% max).
3. Increasing the number of passengers per unit - and the biggest gains on this come from "metroisation", i.e. removing seats.
4. Changing the timetable; you may be able to eke out a bit of efficiency, but it may also be a case of "robbing Peter to pay Paul", i.e. if the high peak gets more trains, the bits either side may get less.
I'm guessing that Stagecoach may have been including the current incoming Class 707s in their 30%, while First have not.