RMT dispute on Merseyrail

[Bletchleyite]

Isn't that what the Luddites thought?

It is. And I'd rather see something like UBI and therefore the ability to work a far shorter week on things that aren't mainly money-driven than I would like to see innovation stifled.

 

[LowLevel]

Isn't that what the Luddites thought?

It is. Please explain where the work for the average low IQ human to live a decent life is going to spring from to replace automated work though. They may actually be right, centuries after their deaths.

Providing a meaningful existence for humanity is the real goal for the future. We've just not woken up to it yet. Especially since all indications are the world would better off if we never evolved.

 

[Camden]

It is. And I'd rather see something like UBI and therefore the ability to work a far shorter week on things that aren't mainly money-driven than I would like to see innovation stifled.

But to switch to that kind of system would mean a momentous governmental change in all sorts of ways.

At the moment society is run with the overriding benefit going to those that are able to come up with ideas and/or make money out of other people's.

So a society in which humans are superfluous to production and service creates a potentially very nasty scenario in which, under today's terms, those that are OK shrug and say "so what?" as and when many people are left without the means to acquire food and shelter.

Rather than moving to an era where we consider all humans as being universally deserving of food and shelter, we appear to be going the opposite way where we are being conditioned to be harsh and accept unfair treatment as part of life.

If you ever get your universal income I don't think it would be at the hands of those currently running our society now, and they are hardly likely to give up their greed and power lust happily or willingly.

Personally I advocate keeping your head in the sand, as it doesn't bear thinking about!

 

[Camden]

Please explain where the work for the average low IQ human to live a decent life is going to spring from

It's not just manual jobs at risk, it's all kinds including those that we currently think of as requiring skill and judgement. A robot doesn't need to be able to have cracked emotion in order to mimic a lot of things these days. Physical, creative, personal, technological, analytical and even intellectual is all at risk of automation. It's the sheer range of tasks that can be accomplished by technology which presents the challenge.

 

[wfrank]

It's not just manual jobs at risk, it's all kinds including those that we currently think of as requiring skill and judgement. A robot doesn't need to be able to have cracked emotion in order to mimic a lot of things these days. Physical, creative, personal, technological, analytical and even intellectual is all at risk of automation. It's the sheer range of tasks that can be accomplished by technology which presents the challenge.

Suprisinigly I have read that Doctors(GPs) & lawyers are most at risk. Intelligent computer systems can ask patients & clients questions, work out the problem, & direct the patient to a hospital consultant if need be, or a pharmacist or say nothing wrong & in the case of lawyers the paper work could be done by the computer too. So even the mighty might be fallen!

 

[wfrank]

Whatever it is you've drunk this afternoon is it available for the general public or only on prescription ?

On come on,some charity please. This is the sort of remark we often get from the anti DOO propagandist.

 

[Bookd]

We may have drifted away from the original thread, but in the last few days Bill Gates, the guru of computerisation, suggested that robots should pay income tax in the same way as the people that they replace thus providing funds to support the lives of those who will no longer need to work.

 

[Pyreneenguy]

Suprisinigly I have read that Doctors(GPs) & lawyers are most at risk. Intelligent computer systems can ask patients & clients questions, work out the problem, & direct the patient to a hospital consultant if need be, or a pharmacist or say nothing wrong & in the case of lawyers the paper work could be done by the computer too. So even the mighty might be fallen!

In the -very near- future, students will have to VERY carefully choose their degree. A degree without any direct link to a need in the job market will probably just load them with a huge unpayable debt for life.


Returning to the subject of D.O.O :-

if the driver is responsable for opening and closing the doors, will the extra responsibility that this encumbers them with be compensated ? Any accidents resulting from the driver's misjudgement could lead to a very heavy prison sentence, as has recently been seen in the case of a Merseyrail guard with another coming to trial shortly.

 

[Robertj21a]

Suprisinigly I have read that Doctors(GPs) & lawyers are most at risk. Intelligent computer systems can ask patients & clients questions, work out the problem, & direct the patient to a hospital consultant if need be, or a pharmacist or say nothing wrong & in the case of lawyers the paper work could be done by the computer too. So even the mighty might be fallen!

In the -very near- future, students will have to VERY carefully choose their degree. A degree without any direct link to a need in the job market will probably just load them with a huge unpayable debt for life.

From my viewpoint, students have been chasing the 'wrong' degree for many years already. Too many (imho) would do far better not bothering with Uni at all - work experience in the real world is what may well suit many far more.

 

[Robertj21a]

On come on,some charity please. This is the sort of remark we often get from the anti DOO propagandist.

As I'm sure you'll have appreciated, it was merely a light-hearted response to a post that was so full of doom and gloom to be laughable. This 'end of the world' scenario gets a bit boring when you've heard it so many times.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

From my viewpoint, students have been chasing the 'wrong' degree for many years already. Too many (imho) would do far better not bothering with Uni at all - work experience in the real world is what may well suit many far more.

....and they would have no student loans to bother them.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

We may have drifted away from the original thread, but in the last few days Bill Gates, the guru of computerisation, suggested that robots should pay income tax in the same way as the people that they replace thus providing funds to support the lives of those who will no longer need to work.

Perhaps the ultimate prediction of the oft-quoted rather strange phrase of "race to the bottom" on this website could be seen in such a scenario that was so well portrayed by the Fritz Lang directed 1927 film of "Metropolis".

 

[HH]

A press release doesn't have to be shamelessly opportunistic, promote fallacies, and rely on hyperbole. I know; I write press releases!

That explains a lot of things...

 

[Bletchleyite]

Suprisinigly I have read that Doctors(GPs) & lawyers are most at risk. Intelligent computer systems can ask patients & clients questions, work out the problem, & direct the patient to a hospital consultant if need be, or a pharmacist or say nothing wrong & in the case of lawyers the paper work could be done by the computer too. So even the mighty might be fallen!

Given how the NHS has far more demand than it can cope with, you would have to automate a lot of it before you started lopping people out.

Lawyers...well, personally I would be in favour of the legal system changing to remove the "Government sets, judiciary interprets" approach (which I find inconsistent - why should the interpretation not come from the intention of those doing the setting?) entirely in favour of a more specific form of drafting, so that would reduce the need for them anyway.

 

[Bletchleyite]

We may have drifted away from the original thread, but in the last few days Bill Gates, the guru of computerisation, suggested that robots should pay income tax in the same way as the people that they replace thus providing funds to support the lives of those who will no longer need to work.

Potentially you might do away with "income tax" in its present form and tax the financial gains of those who own robots and earn from them, in order to fund something like a UBI.

The more I think about UBI the more I like it. If I had that kind of safety net I could see me changing my life hugely - more voluntary work, more short-term stuff, more inventiveness. Many people do a 9-5:30 permanent job[1] simply because it provides security. Remove that need, and you create massive, massive opportunity.

[1] Don't get me wrong, I quite enjoy my job, and I suspect I'd still do some of the same work if this happened, for the same company if it were an option. But perhaps interspersed with other things.

 

[urbophile]

It is. Please explain where the work for the average low IQ human to live a decent life is going to spring from to replace automated work though. They may actually be right, centuries after their deaths.

Providing a meaningful existence for humanity is the real goal for the future. We've just not woken up to it yet. Especially since all indications are the world would better off if we never evolved.

'The average low IQ human' deserves as meaningful an existence as anyone else. I suspect that is what you meant, but if I were a railway guard I'd be a bit put out by the implication that I'm not very bright.

 

[Goldfish62]

I just don't think that's true. There are busy commuter routes into other cities and conversely extremely rural routes that provide vital community links. The network is certainly very different outside London though.

The thing is for Merseyrail guards, why not strike? It's crystal clear what's on the cards for them, so what alternative do they have? It'll be pretty damaging for them when they lose their jobs. It's coming, at varied paces, to all of us guards. What'll be interesting, longer term, is how it affects recruitment across TOCs. Once it becomes clear that the general trend is to get rid of guards who is going to want to be one? It's a useful springboard into other railway roles, admittedly, but it's a fairly niche career to go into only to be made redundant in a few years, and a big gamble to think you'll be able to move on within a short time when the likelihood is that everyone else will be trying to get the h*ll out of dodge too.

One thing is for sure, the bus operators in Merseyside will be rubbing their hands in glee. If there's anything like the sort of disruption caused as on Southern it will be easy for them to establish new routes as a viable alternative to Merseyrail. This then raises the prospect, with prolonged action, of the nuclear option of just shutting the whole Merseyrail network.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This then raises the prospect, with prolonged action, of the nuclear option of just shutting the whole Merseyrail network.

That is not a realistic prospect.

 

[Carlisle]

That is not a realistic prospect.

Probably not, but over the years I can think of quite a few long running industrial disputes that have only been settled when all sides become aware that's actually a realistic option

 

[Robertj21a]

One thing is for sure, the bus operators in Merseyside will be rubbing their hands in glee. If there's anything like the sort of disruption caused as on Southern it will be easy for them to establish new routes as a viable alternative to Merseyrail. This then raises the prospect, with prolonged action, of the nuclear option of just shutting the whole Merseyrail network.

Personally, I very much doubt that any action will be anything like as severe as on Southern.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Probably not, but over the years I can think of quite a few long running industrial disputes that have only been settled when all sides become aware that's actually a realistic option

It isn't a realistic option and it will not happen - people simply will not switch en-masse to bus permanently in a large city where bus journey times are twice those by rail or more (though those living nearer the centre may do, but many of those people are already using the bus anyway). There is no real point in even thinking about it as a concern.

What is probably a realistic option, however, is the other "nuclear option", namely finding a way to sack the strikers and recruit afresh on some kind of technicality. Liverpool, of course, has bad memories of this very approach relating to the dock workers about 20 years ago.

 

[AntoniC]

I have already planned my bus route to/from work on the 13th March.

It may mean leaving home slightly earlier (5.08 am bus instead of 5.38 am train) and take longer (bus timetable says 63 minutes instead of 43 by train).

And as I work flexi-time, it means leaving work at 3pm instead of 17.15 pm, but there is a choice of 3 buses I can get home.

I support the guards, in this ultimately forlorn fight (as in my personal experience of industrial action they always do), but at least they they have made their point.

 

[Holly]

Suprisinigly I have read that Doctors(GPs) & lawyers are most at risk. Intelligent computer systems can ask patients & clients questions, work out the problem, & direct the patient to a hospital consultant if need be, or a pharmacist or say nothing wrong & in the case of lawyers the paper work could be done by the computer too. So even the mighty might be fallen!

Lawyers will not be out of work as long as it is human nature to cheat whenever the right opportunity presents itself.

 

[kw12]

It isn't a realistic option and it will not happen - people simply will not switch en-masse to bus permanently in a large city where bus journey times are twice those by rail or more (though those living nearer the centre may do, but many of those people are already using the bus anyway). There is no real point in even thinking about it as a concern.

What is probably a realistic option, however, is the other "nuclear option", namely finding a way to sack the strikers and recruit afresh on some kind of technicality. Liverpool, of course, has bad memories of this very approach relating to the dock workers about 20 years ago.

After 12 weeks of industrial action, an employer may dismiss those taking part, provided that:
- it dismisses all employees who have participated and it does not offer to re-engage any of those employees on selective grounds within three months of the dismissal
- it can show that it has tried to settle the dispute (for example, by bringing in advisers from Acas to help find a solution).

Thus, this second "nuclear option" would appear to be lawful. However, if this option were taken it would take time to recruit and train sufficient new staff to enable the full service to be operated.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Weren't we also told something similar many decades ago, when computers were going to take over all the work and there would be totally paper-free offices etc ?

How many offices still have a typing pool? When was the last time you spoke to a switchboard operator?

I don't think it is so outlandish to question what happens next. I was recently in Dubai and the Metro system was very pleasant- fast, efficient, comfortable, cheap. And apart from a couple of ticket inspectors and the guy sweeping the platform, there were no staff at all. Everything was computerised. Far from it being a dystopian future, the truth is that train drivers themselves will also become obsolete due to technology much sooner than they would like.

The question is not whether technology can replace people- it already has- the question is whether we want it to.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The question is not whether technology can replace people- it already has- the question is whether we want it to.

And if it does, how we make that enhance society by people being able to do what they want[1] to do rather than what they have to to make money, rather than it just creating a big problem with destitution and homelessness.

[1] OK, some people want to be train drivers, but I'd venture that most people do it as a job because they don't mind doing it and it pays well.

 

[HH]

(strains of the "Hovis" music play in the background)
When I were young train driver was one of the jobs kids wanted to do and it wasn't even paid that well then.

(crash of needle coming off the "gramophone record")
Of course then they grow up...

 

[furnessvale]

(strains of the "Hovis" music play in the background)
When I were young train driver was one of the jobs kids wanted to do and it wasn't even paid that well then.

(crash of needle coming off the "gramophone record")
Of course then they grow up...

My brother was a driver who passed out in steam days. He would absolutely hate being a driver under the present regime, and it's not all about steam v diesel v electric.

 

[theironroad]

How many offices still have a typing pool? When was the last time you spoke to a switchboard operator?

I don't think it is so outlandish to question what happens next. I was recently in Dubai and the Metro system was very pleasant- fast, efficient, comfortable, cheap. And apart from a couple of ticket inspectors and the guy sweeping the platform, there were no staff at all. Everything was computerised. Far from it being a dystopian future, the truth is that train drivers themselves will also become obsolete due to technology much sooner than they would like.

The question is not whether technology can replace people- it already has- the question is whether we want it to.

Leaving aside some people's desire for a minimally staff-less railway, the Dubai metro was built in the last couple of decades, well most of the country was built in the last 50 years.

I'd suggest it's a lot easier to build a railway from scratch, fully contained, with automation and at the time with a very healthy oil revenue to fund its construction, using labour imported from India etc who are paid poorly, live in atrocious conditions and have to suffer scant regard for health and safety.

Compare that to bringing the UKs largely Victorian designed and built rail system up to the standards need for full automation, then I think it will be a while.

It probably will happen eventually on a more widespread basis, but I think London bridge to Kentish town (approx) on thameslink is the only stretch of the UK at or near automation.

Yes, we're living through the technological revolution where computing capacity is expanding exponentially and becoming much cheaper and the railways won't be immune to those changes.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Compare that to bringing the UKs largely Victorian designed and built rail system up to the standards need for full automation, then I think it will be a while.

It probably will happen eventually on a more widespread basis, but I think London bridge to Kentish town (approx) on thameslink is the only stretch of the UK at or near automation.

In the context of Merseyrail, I think it would be relatively straightforward to get most of the network up to full automation, with a bit of money. It's small, self-contained and urban. Also the Tyne and Wear Metro.

Huge chunks of the Tube have ATO, as you say the Thameslink core will also have ATO.

The question really isn't whether we can replace railway staff, it's whether we should. I don't think we should. A computer can try, but you never really get the personal touch.