Is a Hard or Soft Brexit better for the railways?

[tbtc]

It is very good news for a TOTALLY British rolling stock manufacturer

How many of those are there though?

(rather than international companies who do some bits here, partly with imported materials that they'll pay a tax on when we leave)

I don't see how "control" of TOC ownership or train manufacturing is of any relevance to the discussion

Agreed (and on the other points).

The EU hasn't stopped us doing a lot of things - it's been used as an EXCUSE not to do a lot of things but it generally turns out that the EU isn't actually to blame.

We have a Government that shows no interest in public ownership of manufacturers (and I can't see the Tories leaving power for another decade as things stand - rightly or wrongly...), so even if there are rule changes post-Brexit, we won't see a nationalised railway using trains from a 100% UK manufacturer fuelled by coal from newly re-opened UK pits.

As far as the railways are concerned, it will be business as usual. Big business as usual...

Given how unpopular it is at the moment when state owned companies from other EU countries are awarded franchises it wouldn't surprise me if the Government brought in legislation saying franchises won't be awarded to companies owned by governments in other countries

Unpopular where?

In the bubble of railway obsessives like ourselves?

It may generate headlines for a day or two following a new franchise award but I doubt 99% of passengers on Northern services at Sheffield tomorrow could tell you whether the franchise ultimately "belonged" to the French, Germans or Dutch?

 

[thenorthern]

Whats the current situation with the United Kingdom - Ireland border post Brexit? Last I heard the policy was to keep it how it was but with a hard Brexit I don't see how this will be possible.

If there was a hard Brexit and border between Ireland and Northern Ireland became inevitable I would think it would be inevitable that Enterprise service would become a Belfast to Dublin only service with no intermediate stations. I hope that this doesn't happen though.
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Unpopular where?

In the bubble of railway obsessives like ourselves?

It may generate headlines for a day or two following a new franchise award but I doubt 99% of passengers on Northern services at Sheffield tomorrow could tell you whether the franchise ultimately "belonged" to the French, Germans or Dutch?

Its something that looks good on the front page of the tabloids, very often I hear disgruntled commuters talk about how they are having to pay large amounts of money to sit on outdated trains while the profits from it all are going to fund railways in other countries.

Headlines such as "BRITISH companies to run BRITISH trains" on The Sun of course are misleading but they make commuters feel that the government is working for them.

 

[matt_world2004]

The only thing I can think would happen is that it makes it easier to remove paths from Open access operators.

 

[Gareth]

Whats the current situation with the United Kingdom - Ireland border post Brexit? Last I heard the policy was to keep it how it was but with a hard Brexit I don't see how this will be possible.

If there was a hard Brexit and border between Ireland and Northern Ireland became inevitable I would think it would be inevitable that Enterprise service would become a Belfast to Dublin only service with no intermediate stations. I hope that this doesn't happen though.

It may depend what you mean by 'Hard Brexit' and its soft counterpart. It seems wonderfully open to personal interpretation. I will assume that the difference between 'hard' and 'soft' is membership of the single market - 'soft' being the Norway option, whilst 'hard' being the 'third country' option (Canada, Nigeria, Russia, Singapore etc...). In both scenarios, the UK will almost certainly be outside of the customs union, as Norway, Iceland & Switzerland are. This means certain goods will have to be declared at the border and possibly subject to inspection. To get an impression of what this would probably look like, have a look at some of the Norway/Sweden border crossings on GSV. Both are in Schengen and so have an open border but the large crossings have inspection facilities for the "Goods to declare" lane. Vehicles in the "Nothing to declare" lane continue straight through. Smaller crossings don't seem to have these facilities although many seem to have laybys. Presumably, customs officers do occasional random checks at these points. Ireland would probably be broadly similar. How this would work on the trains, I'm not too sure. Presumably you'd be asked if you had anything to declare before you board. On the Eurostar, I would imagine this would be done at the same time as the existing passport checks.

 

[najaB]

It may depend what you mean by 'Hard Brexit' and its soft counterpart. It seems wonderfully open to personal interpretation. I will assume that the difference between 'hard' and 'soft' is membership of the single market - 'soft' being the Norway option, whilst 'hard' being the 'third country' option (Canada, Nigeria, Russia, Singapore etc...). In both scenarios, the UK will almost certainly be outside of the customs union, as Norway, Iceland & Switzerland are.

In a hard scenario we would be outside the free market, customs union and Schengen. So unless the Irish government agrees to keep the Common Travel Area (don't see how they can if the UK has restrictions on EU nationals and Ireland doesn't) there would have to be a hard border.

 

[Gareth]

Neither the UK and Ireland are in Schengen currently. So long as Ireland remains outside of Schengen, there wouldn't necessarily need to be a 'hard border'. Unless millions enter Ireland legally then cross into Northern Ireland to work in the black market, in which case it would have to be looked at but that would be a niche career choice, I would imagine.

 

[najaB]

Neither the UK and Ireland are in Schengen currently. So long as Ireland remains outside of Schengen...

That's not a certainty.

 

[Gareth]

In the immediate term, it is a certainty, as much as these things can be. Ireland's under no legal obligation to join and Brexit won't alter that. The medium to longer term may be different and will depend on how the EU evolves and how this affects Ireland.

 

[najaB]

The medium to longer term may be different and will depend on how the EU evolves and how this affects Ireland.

I agree it won't change immediately, but Ireland is obligated to allow free movement of EU nationals and the UK won't be. That fundamentally undermines the basis of the CTA.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

I agree it won't change immediately, but Ireland is obligated to allow free movement of EU nationals and the UK won't be. That fundamentally undermines the basis of the CTA.

Which is/will be more important to the Irish, free movement within the EU or maintaining the CTA? Because ultimately the Irish tend to be as pragmatic as us and I would expect the answer to be the latter option. As I've said previously there are already signs of other EU nations being sufficiently unhappy with the principle that borders are becoming "harder" with fences starting to (re)appear. Even the diehard federalists are starting to realise that a post Brexit EU may have to move in a different direction.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

At this point however the effects of Brexit are still speculation - let's be honest, if the current Cabinet ministers don't know then what chance do the citizens of the country have...?

It was not the current Cabinet ministers who actually gained enough votes in the referendum to bring about the current situation, but the ordinary citizens of this country to whom you make reference to in your posting extract above.

 

[Agent_c]

*Practically* no-one really knows Now there are arguments that the UK would not need to comply with EU disability, competition, safety etc laws. On the other hand UK law is a lot stronger than the minimums required by EU law in many cases.

This is probably worth exploring a little more.

There's three types of EU statute law, stuff from the treaties, stuff from "Directives" and stuff from "regulations".

The middle type I think is what you're hinting towards there - Directives. A Directive is an instruction to the governments of member states to make sure their local law meets some sort of minimum standard or some other requirement.

How exactly member states get there, what form it takes, or even a choice to go above the minimum standard is left to the member states.

Lets say, for example, there was this thing called the "railways injury directive" that said that member states should make provision to ensure that anyone injured on the railways was not out of pocket for any medical expenses they might face.

Country A might do this through legislating to require railway companies to have an unlimited level of medical insurance for third party and employee injuries.

In Country B, there might be completely free healthcare at the point of access already, and so might need to take no action at all.

If a country doesn't implement directive, then a person might have the right to sue the state for not implementing it.

Putting this into Brexit terms...

Any EU Directive that has been correctly implemented is already present in UK law directly, without any reference to EU law at all - The new Consumer Rights Act 2016 is an example of this I believe. So Leaving the EU has no immediate effect on these rules (except that the government would no longer face any consequences for removing these rules).

What is in question is things from the treaties (Things like trade barriers being illegal) and regulations.

 

[Gareth]

I agree it won't change immediately, but Ireland is obligated to allow free movement of EU nationals and the UK won't be. That fundamentally undermines the basis of the CTA.

'Free movement' means EU nationals can work in Ireland. They won't be able to work in the UK; at least not by default (there will still be ways to gain lawful employment) but EU nationals will still be able to come to the UK without a visa. The fly in the ointment will be whether the UK will require a passport stamp and if EU nationals will face time limits (ie 90 or 180 day maximum stay). If there are no restrictions, then the passport stamp would not be necessary as merely the passport in itself would be enough documentation to show the holder is legally in the UK. If there are restrictions on length of stay then a stamp will be needed. Someone from the EU could theoretically fly into Dublin and go up the N1 and enter the UK without a stamp and therefore illegally. There are probably a few approaches one could take to this. One approach could be to insist EU nationals get an entry stamp in advance if they intend to cross the border, probably at entry into Ireland. This would require co-operation between the border/immigration departments of both countries, although this already exists as a consequence of the CTA.

I really don't see a 'hard border' being an immediate consequence of Brexit. Further into the future, like I said, may be different and will depend on future events, not necessarily foreseen.

 

[ungreat]

Headlines such as "BRITISH companies to run BRITISH trains" on The Sun of course are misleading but they make commuters feel that the government is working for them.

Plus it appeals to the nationalist boneheads that voted for Brexit as well
I find it laughable that a nation that used to own a sizeable chunk of the planet votes to leave the EU because of immigration.....

 

[thenorthern]

Regarding Northern Ireland I have seen talk of a situation where Northern Ireland and Ireland are a passport free zone but it would require a passport from either of them to enter Great Britain. I don't think that would go down well with the Democratic Unionist Party having to show a passport to enter another part of the United Kingdom.

Realistically an open border with Ireland is desirable not just for railways but also for road transport and buses.

Plus it appeals to the nationalist boneheads that voted for Brexit as well
I find it laughable that a nation that used to own a sizeable chunk of the planet votes to leave the EU because of immigration.....

Problem is generally people like British things such as in the supermarket people are more likely to buy British Strawberries rather than foreign ones.

People would rather British train operating companies rather than foreign ones plus it looks good for the Government on the front page of The Daily Mail and wins votes for doing very little.

Also things like the Voyager train even though its not built in the United Kingdom its built by Bombardier who people associate with the United Kingdom as they have a factory here.

Its all big headlines and sounbites which are good at winning elections.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

This whole control issue was such a major part of the campaigning, (having 'control' over all sorts of things, not just railways of course). Is there any reason to think being able to rule out people like DB from running TOCs will make them any better or worse, is there enough domestic interest in running TOCs?

The question is likely to be whether DB, NS, SNCF etc want to make an investment in the UK, not whether we will "let them in".
The climate of opinion in Europe will be negative towards the UK for maybe a decade as we separate.
Many EU organisations are likely to be put off with the terms of trade if Brexit is "hard".
Apart from the railways, think what the energy sector will do: EDF, e-On, RWE; or Airbus, BMW etc, with huge investments and a cross-EU workforce and product line.

On manufacturing, we have probably increased the price of everything, as EU firms are the main ones supplying railway equipment (signalling as well as rolling stock).
Hitachi may be the least affected, with a Japanese design and UK manufacturing, but will they stay around without free access to the EU?

Anyway, too early to tell really, but I can't see it turning out well, myself.

 

[yorksrob]

The question is likely to be whether DB, NS, SNCF etc want to make an investment in the UK, not whether we will "let them in".
The climate of opinion in Europe will be negative towards the UK for maybe a decade as we separate.
Many EU organisations are likely to be put off with the terms of trade if Brexit is "hard".
Apart from the railways, think what the energy sector will do: EDF, e-On, RWE; or Airbus, BMW etc, with huge investments and a cross-EU workforce and product line.

On manufacturing, we have probably increased the price of everything, as EU firms are the main ones supplying railway equipment (signalling as well as rolling stock).
Hitachi may be the least affected, with a Japanese design and UK manufacturing, but will they stay around without free access to the EU?

Anyway, too early to tell really, but I can't see it turning out well, myself.

If European companies are going to be put off investing in the UK, there are presumably UK companies currently in Europe which may be looking for investment opportunities closer to home. If this is not the case, it suggests a more fundamental problem with the British economy which pre-dates Brexit.

 

[daikilo]

Given how unpopular it is at the moment when state owned companies from other EU countries are awarded franchises it wouldn't surprise me if the Government brought in legislation saying franchises won't be awarded to companies owned by governments in other countries.

When there was the Thameslink contract there was a lot of ill feeling in Derby about the EU as many people felt that Bombardier should be given the contract as they had a factory in the United Kingdom while Siemens didn't and the Government's response was that they were required by EU law to get the best deal which meant building trains in Germany. This is probably one of the reasons why Derby voted out and was more Euroscpetic than Leicester and Nottingham.

I am aware that Bombardier isn't a British company and the Government should still always try and get bet best deal but I think many people will want British Trains built at British Factories even if it costs more.

Both of these though would only be possible with a hard brexit.

These are good examples of where "not being bound by" EU regulations could favour UK based companies with e.g. TOCs must be x% owned by UK registered companies, trains must have y% UK content or be assembled in the UK. However, there could be retaliation such as a trade barrier requiring a reciprocal approach for any UK bid for a European country. Whilst that would probably not affect train builders as they all have European assembly companies, it could affect e.g. National Express, Stagecoach, ...

During the exit negotiations, likely each side will come up with lists of must haves and the rest. UK will probably have immigration high on the list whilst Europe may put Financial centres as high. They may both decide that trains and railway operations are basically a zero-sum game so not worth fighting about (maye even a negative-sum for the UK).

Border controls are always a cost whether it be for people or trade so minimisation will be a target, and any new ones will have to show an added value.

Finally, and a big added complication for Europe is that other countries currently in the EU will be running simulations to see what the Brexit agreement could mean for them if they went for it also. On the key issue of immigration, there are other, generally smaller, countries who would like to restrict European influenece over their country, whereas the Financial services really only concern the big ones, so Brussels may be willing to cede on say Financial services to and hold tight on immigration. I cannot see why rail would be seen as important in this context.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Problem is generally people like British things such as in the supermarket people are more likely to buy British Strawberries rather than foreign ones.

And then go out and buy German BMWs, Korean Smartphones and Swedish kitchens.
Generally, the public doesn't understand the globalised world.

Also, worldwide "Free Trade", as promised by the Brexiteers, doesn't square with narrow protectionism, or foreign markets will be closed to us (tit for tat etc).

I also think WTO rules require certain sectors to be open to competition.
I'm pretty sure railway equipment is one of them (not sure about services, eg operation).

 

[northwichcat]

It is very good news for a TOTALLY British rolling stock manufacturer.

And how is that going to happen? Are Optare or Alexander Dennis going to start building trains or is a British based consortium going to buy the Derby rail works from Bombardier or even buy Bombardier Transport?
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And then go out and buy German BMWs, Korean Smartphones and Swedish kitchens.
Generally, the public doesn't understand the globalised world.

I recall an episode of ITV Tonight where people were asked which were the British brands and which were the foreign ones and many thought foreign brands like Kellogg's were in fact British.

I've noticed on a few electrical items I have it says "Built in _____ to German specifications", obviously being built to a German set specification is seen as a selling point even if the actual product is made in Slovakia or China.

 

[deltic]

Given the three musketeers who are leading the Brexit process/negotiation are all free trade supporters I cant see any proposals put in place to protect the rail sector from overseas competition in future trade negotiations

 

[nidave]

Whats the current situation with the United Kingdom - Ireland border post Brexit? Last I heard the policy was to keep it how it was but with a hard Brexit I don't see how this will be possible.

If there was a hard Brexit and border between Ireland and Northern Ireland became inevitable I would think it would be inevitable that Enterprise service would become a Belfast to Dublin only service with no intermediate stations. I hope that this doesn't happen though.
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Its something that looks good on the front page of the tabloids, very often I hear disgruntled commuters talk about how they are having to pay large amounts of money to sit on outdated trains while the profits from it all are going to fund railways in other countries.

Headlines such as "BRITISH companies to run BRITISH trains" on The Sun of course are misleading but they make commuters feel that the government is working for them.

This has been published today

"Northern Ireland border controls cannot be ruled out - Irish Foreign Minister

A return to border controls between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic due to Britain's vote to leave the European Union cannot be ruled out, Ireland's foreign minister said on Monday after London laid out its Brexit timetable."
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland-idUKKCN12310J?il=0

 

[F Great Eastern]

I've read or heard nothing that suggests UK rolling stock procurement will be subject to protectionist policies.

Bombardier have been very happy the last few months and safe to say there will be some more happiness coming their way shortly I would imagine., I can't imagine the Germans who build all of their trains in Germany and use no UK suppliers at all can be very happy.

What with all the trains Bombardier are building fully in the UK, with only UK suppliers, it can only be a good thing for the British economy, rather than instead the jobs going abroad, all the money comes back to the British company, invested in the British economy for British jobs.

I mean, at the end of the day, surely that's the most important thing?
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And how is that going to happen? Are Optare or Alexander Dennis going to start building trains or is a British based consortium going to buy the Derby rail works from Bombardier or even buy Bombardier Transport?

Bombardier is British!
They are headquarted in Derby

All trains are built there, for example they designed and built
Voyagers
Electrostars
Turbostars

These were completely British trains and the tube stock on a few lines was built by them too!!!

 

[swt_passenger]

Bombardier is British!
They are headquarted in Derby

All trains are built there, for example they designed and built
Voyagers
Electrostars
Turbostars

These were completely British trains and the tube stock on a few lines was built by them too!!!

You're having a laugh, yes?

 

[bangor-toad]

A view from within Northern Ireland...

Regarding Northern Ireland I have seen talk of a situation where Northern Ireland and Ireland are a passport free zone but it would require a passport from either of them to enter Great Britain. I don't think that would go down well with the Democratic Unionist Party having to show a passport to enter another part of the United Kingdom.

Leaving aside the NI party politics, let's look at the reality of the situation as it stands today.

If I fly out of NI into an English airport I need to show my passport as ID for most of the flights I take. Would it really be any practical change for me to be required to show it by the Government rather than being required by Mr O'Leary to show it?

Sometimes on ferries I've seen the Police checking passports of foot passengers in some detail and on the ferries into Dublin there's the drive by check that you're holding a passport up.
Again, there would be remarkably little practical difference if you needed to show a passport between NI and mainland UK.


A fence / restriction free border between Ireland and Northern Ireland with passport checks leaving and entering the whole island may be the most practical way forward. It more or less is what happens already anyway. Where the change would or could be is in having to prove entitlement for public services within NI.
Oh, and of course there's the not insignificant issue of the political acceptability of introducing an internal border control...

And to keep it vague on-topic, such an arrangement will allow the Dublin-Belfast Enterprise service to run with as little change as possible.

Whatever it comes to be, it's going to be interesting watching the future of this one unfold.
Mr Toad

 

[najaB]

If I fly out of NI into an English airport I need to show my passport as ID for most of the flights I take.

I don't currently have a passport yet I have flown between Scotland and Northern Ireland six or seven times this year. So, if the rules changed overnight it would make a difference to me.

 

[coppercapped]

Bombardier have been very happy the last few months and safe to say there will be some more happiness coming their way shortly I would imagine., I can't imagine the Germans who build all of their trains in Germany and use no UK suppliers at all can be very happy.

What with all the trains Bombardier are building fully in the UK, with only UK suppliers, it can only be a good thing for the British economy, rather than instead the jobs going abroad, all the money comes back to the British company, invested in the British economy for British jobs.

I mean, at the end of the day, surely that's the most important thing?
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Bombardier is British!
They are headquarted in Derby

All trains are built there, for example they designed and built
Voyagers
Electrostars
Turbostars

These were completely British trains and the tube stock on a few lines was built by them too!!!

I suggest you do some research before posting... :cry:

 

[CosherB]

Bombardier is British!
They are headquarted in Derby

All trains are built there, for example they designed and built
Voyagers
Electrostars
Turbostars

These were completely British trains and the tube stock on a few lines was built by them too!!!

Try again ..... :roll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardier_Transportation

And the "completely British" Voyagers were built in Belgium! lol

Come on, a 10 second internet search would correct those howlers ....

 

[F Great Eastern]

You're having a laugh, yes?

Yes, seems the joke was lost on a few people!

I was not only referencing to Bombardier not being British and the Voyagers being built in Belgium, but also that the Turbostar and Electrostar product isn't even designed by Bombardier.

 

[CosherB]

Hilarious.