Future of EMUs (319s, 323s, 350s, 387s, new build et al.)

[northwichcat]

Looking at the various recent releases from DfT, TOCs (present and future) and ROSCOs it looks like Northern will be releasing their 323s at the end of 2017 and TPE will be releasing their 350s during 2018. The LM franchise consultation also suggests new EMUs could be procured for Crewe to Euston and Liverpool to Birmingham services. I think given that information it's a safe bet to presume LM won't be needing 319s for too long.

It looks like Northern could receive more 319s before the end of 2017 but they possibly will be temporary on some services until the new EMUs are introduced. Looking at the timeline figures given for additional capacity and considering the number of electric services Northern will run in the North West, I think they could get up to 52 x 319s (including the 20 they already have.) That would leave at least 34 x 319s available for other TOCs. However, at present we have no information to confirm for certain it will be 319s replacing 323s only that the replacement trains will be 'refurbished 4 car EMUs.' One rumour was the new 387s ordered by Porterbrook would go on Great Northern services and that would leave 19 x 365s available for Northern to use as class 323 replacement. If true that would leave even more 319s available for other operators. Where are they all going to go?

If LM do get new trains for Crewe to Euston and Liverpool to Birmingham I wonder if they'll actually need all the 350s and 323s as well, or could the 350s get split between two operators? Maybe Anglia could use 350s given they are effectively 360s with corridor connections?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Sounding somewhat selfish, the news that the Class 323 will still be with Northern (and on my own line) until the end of 2017 is something to cheer me up immensely.

 

[D365]

Sounding somewhat selfish, the news that the Class 323 will still be with Northern (and on my own line) until the end of 2017 is something to cheer me up immensely.

Does not the prospect of a Class 365 movement to the North leave you dancing in joy?

 

[northwichcat]

Does not the prospect of a Class 365 movement to the North leave you dancing in joy?

I'd wait for confirmation before anyone starts dancing for joy. I liked the idea of new DMUs for Northern more before I saw the actual list of routes they'll be used on. Although saying that if the lines I use more frequently get some cascaded 170s from Scotrail I'll be happy.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Looking at the various recent releases from DfT, TOCs (present and future) and ROSCOs it looks like Northern will be releasing their 323s at the end of 2017 and TPE will be releasing their 350s during 2018. The LM franchise consultation also suggests new EMUs could be procured for Crewe to Euston and Liverpool to Birmingham services. I think given that information it's a safe bet to presume LM won't be needing 319s for too long.

It looks like Northern could receive more 319s before the end of 2017 but they will be temporary on some services until the new EMUs are introduced. Looking at the timeline figures given for additional capacity and considering the number of electric services Northern will run in the North West, I think they could get up to 52 x 319s (including the 20 they already have.) That would leave at least 34 x 319s available for other TOCs. However, at present we have no information to confirm for certain it will be 319s replacing 323s only that the replacement trains will be 'refurbished 4 car EMUs.' One rumour was the new 387s ordered by Porterbrook would go on Great Northern services and that would leave 19 x 365s available for Northern to use as class 323 replacement. If true that would leave even more 319s available for other operators. Where are they all going to go?

If LM do get new trains for Crewe to Euston and Liverpool to Birmingham I wonder if they'll actually need all the 350s and 323s as well, or could the 350s get split between two operators? Maybe Anglia could use 350s given they are effectively 360s with corridor connections?

What allowances are you making for the Chase Line electrification (and Bromsgrove extension) in your LM calculations ?

Would the speculative Class 387s going to Greater Anglia make sense, releasing almost the same amount of Class 360 units, allowing the Class 350 and Class 360 Siemens units to be operated by one or two franchises, such as London Midland or LM and Northern, rather than some units going the other way ? It would allow some fleet harmonisation at both franchises, which always helps availability.

 

[D365]

I'd wait for confirmation before anyone starts dancing for joy. I liked the idea of new DMUs for Northern more before I saw the actual list of routes they'll be used on. Although saying that if the lines I use more frequently get some cascaded 170s from Scotrail I'll be happy.

True. Being as I am now, a term-time resident of Sheffield, I'm on the wrong side of the Pennines to see many of the slated benefits.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Would the speculative Class 387s going to Greater Anglia make sense, releasing almost the same amount of Class 360 units...

Surely, if you're looking for fleet harmonisation, it would be better for GWR to take the 20 additional Class 387s instead of any Class 365s.

 

[childwallblues]

Looking at the various recent releases from DfT, TOCs (present and future) and ROSCOs it looks like Northern will be releasing their 323s at the end of 2017 and TPE will be releasing their 350s during 2018. The LM franchise consultation also suggests new EMUs could be procured for Crewe to Euston and Liverpool to Birmingham services. I think given that information it's a safe bet to presume LM won't be needing 319s for too long.

It looks like Northern could receive more 319s before the end of 2017 but they will be temporary on some services until the new EMUs are introduced. Looking at the timeline figures given for additional capacity and considering the number of electric services Northern will run in the North West, I think they could get up to 52 x 319s (including the 20 they already have.) That would leave at least 34 x 319s available for other TOCs. However, at present we have no information to confirm for certain it will be 319s replacing 323s only that the replacement trains will be 'refurbished 4 car EMUs.' One rumour was the new 387s ordered by Porterbrook would go on Great Northern services and that would leave 19 x 365s available for Northern to use as class 323 replacement. If true that would leave even more 319s available for other operators. Where are they all going to go?

If LM do get new trains for Crewe to Euston and Liverpool to Birmingham I wonder if they'll actually need all the 350s and 323s as well, or could the 350s get split between two operators? Maybe Anglia could use 350s given they are effectively 360s with corridor connections?

Northern had a requirement of 40 X Class 319 for the Lancashire Triangle Electrification. But with potential new builds this will obviously change.

 

[northwichcat]

What allowances are you making for the Chase Line electrification (and Bromsgrove extension) in your LM calculations ?

I've not done an exact calculation but I'm considering the scenario could be 91 cascaded carriages made available for LM BEFORE a new order for Crewe to Euston and Liverpool to Birmingham is considered. Given the new trains would likely be longer than 4 carriages, does Chase Lane, Bromsgrove and passenger growth at LM require something like 200 additional electric carriages? Removing the 319s won't bring down the number that much.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Does not the prospect of a Class 365 movement to the North leave you dancing in joy?

I tend to look to the actuality of a two-year reprieve on our Class 323 units (to when I will be 72 years of age) rather the prospect of any units two years into the future.

My days of "dancing for joy" are long into my past, unfortunately, but I have been known to be able to wish to dance upon the grave of that Class 230 monstrosity project....

 

[northwichcat]

Northern had a requirement of 40 X Class 319 for the Lancashire Triangle Electrification. But with potential new builds this will obviously change.

77 extra carriages is shown on the timeline for 2017 (when Bolton and Blackpool will be electrified.) Allow for DfT counting replacing 17 x 69m trains with 17 x 80m trains as 17 additional carriages and that suggests 15 x 4 car trains for the new electric services. Obviously the amount of slack in the existing 319 fleet will allow some new electric services without any additional trains. It'll be later than 2017 before electric services run to Windermere and Bolton is to get additional services in 2019. It's also worth noting TPE will run half the Liverpool to Manchester services on Chat Moss so 319s won't be needed for them.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

True. Being as I am now, a term-time resident of Sheffield, I'm on the wrong side of the Pennines to see many of the slated benefits.
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Surely, if you're looking for fleet harmonisation, it would be better for GWR to take the 20 additional Class 387s instead of any Class 365s.

That's a good point and similarly makes sense.

What else could be moved around for a bit of rationalisation/harmonisation of fleets with the use of the Class 387s or other stock ?

Class 321 and Class 322 fleets all moving to Greater Anglia (other than the Scottish Class 321 to Class 320 conversions) ?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

77 extra carriages is shown on the timeline for 2017 (when Bolton and Blackpool will be electrified.) Allow for DfT counting replacing 17 x 69m trains with 17 x 80m trains as 17 additional carriages and that suggests 15 x 4 car trains for the new electric services. Obviously the amount of slack in the existing 319 fleet will allow some new electric services without any additional trains.

The Class 319 family are off for proper refurbishment at some point in the new Northern franchise though, as per 5.4.2.1 of the ITT. The little painting and retrimming the units got before moving to Northern initially won't be sufficient to meet the requirement which is that all existing Northern rolling stock

Has been subject to such refurbishment as is necessary in order that
passengers will perceive the overall design, internal ambience, condition and facilities, and the external condition, as being thoroughly modern, comfortable and comparable to that of new or nearly-new rolling stock (so far as possible given the engineering and technical constraints of the fleets in question).

That's surely going to result in at the very least, reseating of the unit, new light fittings, and possibly the retractioning package with new transformer and then the installation of air conditioning (which needs a new transformer) with the loss of the hopper windows. If a number of units are either away at a time for refurbishment, or units are refurbished prior to entry into service, having several additional units available in the interim will be helpful.

 

[northwichcat]

Class 321 and Class 322 fleets all moving to Greater Anglia (other than the Scottish Class 321 to Class 320 conversions) ?

I imagine the 321/9s and 322s will leave Northern considering the mention of new 3 car EMUs for Yorkshire to work alongside the 333s, allowing 6 cars on the busiest services.

The Class 319 family are off for proper refurbishment at some point in the new Northern franchise though, as per 5.4.2.1 of the ITT.
...
If a number of units are either away at a time for refurbishment, or units are refurbished prior to entry into service, having several additional units available in the interim will be helpful.

There's a 1st Jan 2020 deadline for removal of Pacers, refurbishing old trains and introducing 'Regional Express' standard trains (which Arriva are branding Northern Connect.) so a surplus will help achieve that. However, the potential EMU surplus appears to be very large at the moment. It's almost big enough to do half the 319s at once!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

True. Being as I am now, a term-time resident of Sheffield, I'm on the wrong side of the Pennines to see many of the slated benefits.

Sheffield will be getting 3 Northern Connect routes with brand new trains - Bradford to Nottingham, Sheffield to Scarborough and Leeds to Lincoln and while South TPE won't be getting new trains, the 185s will be getting wi-fi, power sockets and on demand TV services.

 

[158722]

What allowances are you making for the Chase Line electrification (and Bromsgrove extension) in your LM calculations ?

The Chase line only requires 4 units to cover the existing timetable, perhaps 6 if frequency increased to Rugeley. Bromsgrove should essentially only require an extra 2, whilst replacing the 4 350/2s on the Wolves-Walsall turns all adds up to 10-12 extra 323 turns - if the much vaunted transfer from Northern comes about.

 

[RobShipway]

I would speculate as it does in the January edition of Rail Magazine that the class 350's with TPE will go to LM to replace the class 319's that they are using as I also suspect that TPE will get Electric and Hybrid 125mph trains similar to Hitachi AT300's. The AT300's trains will not be replacing the class 185's, but be in addition to them.

I would also suspect that some of the extra ordered class 387's will end up with Northern after the new 387's have been delivered to GWR with the Thameslink 387's having already passed to GWR.

The class 365's with GWR, will I have no doubt get replaced at a later date but it is worth remembering that some of the GWR Reading - London services will be taken over by Crossrail, so will be run with class 345 trains, so not so many 387/365's trains will be required to replace the 165/166 trains that are heading westwards towards Bristol.

The class 360/2's move to LM to do the Wolves-Walsall route?

I would also suspect that the Northern 323's will join the LM 323's, but be converted into 5 or 6 car trains.

I cannot see the 350's moving from LM anytime soon unless it is being replaced by a 125mph train of some sort that is an electric commuter train. If they where to be moved, as has been speculated above I would see them either move to Anglia. However, I see the 350/1 either moving south as they are dual voltage doing services between Gatwick and Reading, with some maybe going on to Oxford.

 

[Sparks807Evo]

I can't see the 350s moving from LM either - relatively young stock, now being uprated to 110mph and proving to be very reliable. The TPE sets I reckon will shift down to LM - timeframe for that being around 2019 when the 12 new EMU only sets are delivered to TPE.

The 323s from Northern will cover the extension of electrification to Bromsgrove (and Rugeley perhaps if 350s aren't used) - and allow more diagrams on the Cross City line to be converted into 6 car operation to increase capacity.

I think First are retaining 28 of the 185s; the others I assume will shift to Northern for Northern Connect?

The area I am getting lost on is the ECML stopping services - the 377s displaced from the Thameslink lines I believe will eventually replace the 321s on there, and the 317s? I swear I saw at some point that some 377s could move over to Southeastern? If someone can enlighten me more on that it would be great!

 

[northwichcat]

Northern Connect services are getting brand new DMUs and EMUs and some refurbished 158s, no 185s.

The point about LM releasing 350s relates to if they get new trains. They won't need all the 323s and all the 350s and the 350s would be more useful to other operators. Maybe taking on the /4s and releasing the /2s would suit the ROSCOs as that would move all the Porterbrook 350s away from LM with Porterbrook keen on one operator having all their 323s.

 

[D365]

Class 321 and Class 322 fleets all moving to Greater Anglia (other than the Scottish Class 321 to Class 320 conversions) ?

The ex-Northern and GN 321/322 fleet would be enough to see off the oldest Class 317s on Greater Anglia, especially as it seems little progress is being made with refurbishment.

I would speculate as it does in the January edition of Rail Magazine that the class 350's with TPE will go to LM to replace the class 319's that they are using as I also suspect that TPE will get Electric and Hybrid 125mph trains similar to Hitachi AT300's. The AT300's trains will not be replacing the class 185's, but be in addition to them.

Most of what you have written has been discussed before. No idea what you mean by "The AT300's trains", but the TPE order is replacement for all existing fleets in the franchise, aside from approximately half of the Class 185s.

I would also suspect that some of the extra ordered class 387's will end up with Northern after the new 387's have been delivered to GWR with the Thameslink 387's having already passed to GWR.

Which goes against the consensus that larger fleets are more economical, and ignores the fact that the new Northern franchise will be ordering their own new electric stock.

The class 365's with GWR, will I have no doubt get replaced at a later date but it is worth remembering that some of the GWR Reading - London services will be taken over by Crossrail, so will be run with class 345 trains, so not so many 387/365's trains will be required to replace the 165/166 trains that are heading westwards towards Bristol.

You think GWR is bringing in too much suburban stock..?

I would also suspect that the Northern 323's will join the LM 323's, but be converted into 5 or 6 car trains.

I suspect not.

I cannot see the 350's moving from LM anytime soon unless it is being replaced by a 125mph train of some sort that is an electric commuter train.

It's only 15mph, tilt and door layout that differentiate the Desiros from Virgin Trains, operationally.

The 323s from Northern will cover the extension of electrification to Bromsgrove (and Rugeley perhaps if 350s aren't used) - and allow more diagrams on the Cross City line to be converted into 6 car operation to increase capacity.

It is believed that 17 units of Class 323 will be plenty to provide all of the above.

I think First are retaining 28 of the 185s; the others I assume will shift to Northern for Northern Connect?

'Northern Connect' is based on all-new rolling stock.

The area I am getting lost on is the ECML stopping services - the 377s displaced from the Thameslink lines I believe will eventually replace the 321s on there, and the 317s? I swear I saw at some point that some 377s could move over to Southeastern? If someone can enlighten me more on that it would be great!

The smaller Class 317 and 321 fleets were always slated for replacement, and GTR is bringing over 19 Class 377/5s to replace 21 of the 40 Class 365s. Southeastern is due to receive 25 Class 377s that are to be freed up by Thameslink, but final plans will be confirmed whence the new franchise is awarded.

 

[Anvil1984]

'Northern Connect' is based on all-new rolling stock. .

Except for the Northern Connect services radiating from Newcastle

 

[swt_passenger]

The class 365s with GWR, will I have no doubt get replaced at a later date but it is worth remembering that some of the GWR Reading - London services will be taken over by Crossrail, so will be run with class 345 trains, so not so many 387/365s trains will be required to replace the 165/166 trains that are heading westwards towards Bristol.

Not likely at all. It would be quite ridiculous if the GW 387 and 365 fleets were not already accurately sized for the post Crossrail GW requirements. They aren't just replacing the Turbos currently used on stoppers, they are also going to run fast services from the likes of Oxford, Swindon and DIdcot in the peaks that either don't currently run at all, or are currently run by HSTs.

But this is probably off-topic and has been discussed in previous threads.

 

[Sparks807Evo]

Thanks DAB_Move for clearing that up regarding the 317/321 situation - makes sense.

 

[jopsuk]

The area I am getting lost on is the ECML stopping services - the 377s displaced from the Thameslink lines I believe will eventually replace the 321s on there, and the 317s? I swear I saw at some point that some 377s could move over to Southeastern? If someone can enlighten me more on that it would be great!

You're very lost!

GN becomes three much more distinct operations:
Moorgate metro- Moorgate to Welwyn and Stevenage (via Hertford) using new 6-car Desiro City stock (to replace the 313s)
GN Thameslink: off peak six trains per hour. Two Horsham-Peterborough, Two Brighton-Cambridge (semi-fast stopping pattern) (those all 12-car); two Tottenham Corner- Cambridge (8-car, stopping service)
GN Express: off peak, 2tph Kings Cross-Kings Lynn, fast south of Cambridge, one limited stops north of Cambridge. Using Class 377/5. Peak time, additional Peterborough, Cambridge and possibly Royston services. Using 377/5 and 365. (23 and 19)

The other 21 365 go to the GW to supplement their 387s.


There's "only" 30 extra 387s on order. If there were 60, all the 365s could be available as a 40-strong fleet, the GN could get 40 identical express units, the GW could have a unified fleet and the 377/5 could stay at Southern, meaning SE wouldn't lose 375s

 

[SpacePhoenix]

If LM were to give up some 350s, SWT could be given first dibs on the 350/1s

 

[Sparks807Evo]

You're very lost!

GN becomes three much more distinct operations:
Moorgate metro- Moorgate to Welwyn and Stevenage (via Hertford) using new 6-car Desiro City stock (to replace the 313s)
GN Thameslink: off peak six trains per hour. Two Horsham-Peterborough, Two Brighton-Cambridge (semi-fast stopping pattern) (those all 12-car); two Tottenham Corner- Cambridge (8-car, stopping service)
GN Express: off peak, 2tph Kings Cross-Kings Lynn, fast south of Cambridge, one limited stops north of Cambridge. Using Class 377/5. Peak time, additional Peterborough, Cambridge and possibly Royston services. Using 377/5 and 365. (23 and 19)

The other 21 365 go to the GW to supplement their 387s.


There's "only" 30 extra 387s on order. If there were 60, all the 365s could be available as a 40-strong fleet, the GN could get 40 identical express units, the GW could have a unified fleet and the 377/5 could stay at Southern, meaning SE wouldn't lose 375s

Excellent - thanks for the explanation! Yeah I have been lost on it - didn't help not following it at all for most of last year with preoccupation with work I was doing and taking more of an interest in the aviation scene :roll:

 

[swt_passenger]

If LM were to give up some 350s, SWT could be given first dibs on the 350/1s

But why would they ever need to? The LM 350/1s have been specifically modified for 110 mph running, so why propose transferring them off the WCML where they can actually be used at that speed?

 

[D365]

You're very lost!

GN becomes three much more distinct operations:
Moorgate metro- Moorgate to Welwyn and Stevenage (via Hertford) using new 6-car Desiro City stock (to replace the 313s)
GN Thameslink: off peak six trains per hour. Two Horsham-Peterborough, Two Brighton-Cambridge (semi-fast stopping pattern) (those all 12-car); two Tottenham Corner- Cambridge (8-car, stopping service)
GN Express: off peak, 2tph Kings Cross-Kings Lynn, fast south of Cambridge, one limited stops north of Cambridge. Using Class 377/5. Peak time, additional Peterborough, Cambridge and possibly Royston services. Using 377/5 and 365. (23 and 19)

The other 21 365 go to the GW to supplement their 387s.


There's "only" 30 extra 387s on order. If there were 60, all the 365s could be available as a 40-strong fleet, the GN could get 40 identical express units, the GW could have a unified fleet and the 377/5 could stay at Southern, meaning SE wouldn't lose 375s

Some of your numbers are a bit high. Only 19 of the 23 Class 377/5s will be transferred to Great Northern to replace 21 Class 365s, leaving 19 behind again. The speculative order by Porterbrook is for 20 additional Class 387s, but I had heard mutterings of a final 20 units on top of that.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

But why would they ever need to? The LM 350/1s have been specifically modified for 110 mph running, so why propose transferring them off the WCML where they can actually be used at that speed?

Wibble

 

[ScotGG]

The smaller Class 317 and 321 fleets were always slated for replacement, and GTR is bringing over 19 Class 377/5s to replace 21 of the 40 Class 365s. Southeastern is due to receive 25 Class 377s that are to be freed up by Thameslink, but final plans will be confirmed whence the new franchise is awarded.

Yep, nothing whatsoever is confirmed for Southeastern despite many previously believing some 377s would head over in Dec 2017 from TSGN.

Turns out that's not confirmed, with no guarantees anything is forthcoming soon to deal with increasing overcrowding. That's unlike the vast majority of franchises in the UK with plans set in stone in coming years.

 

[northwichcat]

But why would they ever need to? The LM 350/1s have been specifically modified for 110 mph running, so why propose transferring them off the WCML where they can actually be used at that speed?

Plus hasn't an order already been placed for more new Desiros for SWT meaning SWT won't need them?

 

[edwin_m]

Sounds like we have a batch of 350s made redundant by TPE and not required by Northern - who might pick these up? Perhaps XC for Nottingham-Cardiff or maybe even Chiltern?

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Sounds like we have a batch of 350s made redundant by TPE and not required by Northern - who might pick these up? Perhaps XC for Nottingham-Cardiff or maybe even Chiltern?

Probably either LM, AGA or SWT as for any other TOC it's going to be a microfleet

 

[Sparks807Evo]

I can't see SWT getting 350s either for that exact reason - the 707s will fulfil the extra capacity purpose.

The 350/2s are being modified for 110mph as well now according to the West Midlands Rail Prospectus published in December so can't be moving anywhere soon either. Really IF in the future new stock did come in the 350s could be kept to form more 8 car sets to ease overcrowding, particularly on the southern section.