Units/Locos For Scrapping In The Next 10 Years

[SpacePhoenix]

It was mentioned in another thread that some Networkers have probably got about 10 years life left at most so it got me wondering what other loco or unit classes will see some or all of their members going to the scrapyard in the next 10 years?

I think that 442s are a near dead certainty unless they can be economically converted to loco haul use. Class 373s might see a few scrapped if more 374s get ordered

 

[Domh245]

The ex GN 313s, as well as the 314s, and the probably 315s will go for scrap once released by newer units. The 315s may have find their way into the valleys, but I'm not sure. The 317s may also be scrapped.

Edit: And most of the 142 fleet hopefully!

 

[urpert]

Some tube stock: certainly the Bakerloo (72TS) which AFAIK is to be replaced by cascaded 73TS from the Piccadilly.

 

[Bevan Price]

Merseyrail classes 507 & 508 seem likely to have gone by then, and quite possibly many of classes 313, 314 & 315. Hopefully all of class 142 will also be history.

Locos - probably most or all of the stored class 58, and (sadly) a lot of the stored class 60s.
Also, I think that classes 20, 37, 47 & 57 may be much diminished. Even a few class 66 may be threatened when coal traffic has gone. Some of the stored class 90 may also go - or be sold overseas.

 

[RobShipway]

I would add class 143, 150, most certainly 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 507, 508. One of the class 3xx's or one of the class 5XX's I believe will be replaced by the extra Class 387's that Porterbrook have ordered.

 

[thenorthern]

Class 142s are pretty much guaranteed to be withdrawn by 2020 now, 143s and 144s may have a few more years in them, the Class 507/508 units on will probably be pieces of railway history in the next few years.

I was thinking about withdrawals today though as when its time for the Class 153s to be withdrawn will we have a new batch of railcars as opposed to multiple units as there as several branch lines where a single coach railcar is enough capacity.

 

[colchesterken]

I hope we can lock the accountants in a dark room and save as many of the best of them for further use as poss,
Even if they are not new toys from the box I am sure many passengers would rather have a smart old train rather than a bus
If they had kept back some of the 1st generation diesels they could have been pressed into use in our area either relying on grandfather rights or minimal refurb door locks etc

 

[Domh245]

Some tube stock: certainly the Bakerloo (72TS) which AFAIK is to be replaced by cascaded 73TS from the Piccadilly.

Not sure where you heard that! The 72TS are receiving life-extension work which should see them outlast the 73TS. When the NTfL eventually comes online, it will replace the 92TS, 73TS, and 72TS, and probably in that order!

I would add class 143, 150, most certainly 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 507, 508. One of the class 3xx's or one of the class 5XX's I believe will be replaced by the extra Class 387's that Porterbrook have ordered.

I had forgotten that Merseyrail had planned to press ahead with replacement of their PEPs, so it will leave the 313/2s as the last ones standing! I'm not sure about the 316s though (and for what it's worth, the 507s and 508s are the only 5XXs on the network). 143s, I'm half expecting to still be here, with Porterbrook's modification programme, they should be able to find work somewhere, even if it is only a few units on peak-time crowd buster services.

As for Locos, I wouldn't be surprised to see some of DRS' heritage fleet being rationalised.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Merseyrail classes 507 & 508 seem likely to have gone by then, and quite possibly many of classes 313, 314 & 315. Hopefully all of class 142 will also be history.

Locos - probably most or all of the stored class 58, and (sadly) a lot of the stored class 60s.
Also, I think that classes 20, 37, 47 & 57 may be much diminished. Even a few class 66 may be threatened when coal traffic has gone. Some of the stored class 90 may also go - or be sold overseas.

I doubt if the Skodas (90s) are good enough for any other country !.

Your right of course. With the demise of coal this begs the question how many locos would that free up ?. Then how many locos are required for biomass ?.

As for multiple units even HSTs must be going into surplus - sadly. I suppose voyagers might get lengthened by re-forming leaving the end (driving) coaches for spares.

I think classes 313, 314, 315, 507 & 508 might last a while as they have aluminium bodies iirc which means corrosion will not be a limiting factor. Certainly the electric 313, 314 & 315 must be useful as more lines get electrified.

Oh and I had trouble recalling the class 316. Already gone - just a Networker prototype according to Wikipedia though I do not remember it.

 

[bramling]

It was mentioned in another thread that some Networkers have probably got about 10 years life left at most so it got me wondering what other loco or unit classes will see some or all of their members going to the scrapyard in the next 10 years?

I think that 442s are a near dead certainty unless they can be economically converted to loco haul use. Class 373s might see a few scrapped if more 374s get ordered

I'd be very surprised to see any Networkers go in the forseeable future. Even if TFL take over the metro routes and order new trains (neither are a given), I think they would end up getting moves to other parts of Southeastern. Potentially they could take over some 375 duties and allow the 375s to utilise their AC capability elsewhere.

If the fleet replacement happens (again not a given), I can't see any future use for the Merseyrail 507s and 508s. At the very most I think a handful could get short-term use in the London area (eg Medway Valley), but only as a last resort.

Likewise the GN 313s are unlikely to find long-term further use. Having said that, if Merseyrail did decide to keep their existing trains, a small number of 313s could go there.

Some 315s could potentially go, as there doesn't seem to be much potential for them, although Cardiff remains a possibility.

I think most 317s will find a home somewhere or other, for the time being at least. The amount of extra capacity required on West Anglia is such that there will be quite a demand for EMUs there, even after the new Overground trains arrive.

Scotrail 314s also unlikely to find long-term use, although they could still end up providing extra capacity on Scotrail by staying on their existing duties, for which they are reasonably suitable. Not sure where they stand on disability compliance though.

Can't see too many DMUs going, maybe some 142s, but I wouldn't be surprised if these end up hanging on.

On a different note, another fleet to watch could be the Glasgow Subway trains. SPT has certainly been looking at fleet replacement.

 

[FQ]

[wishful thinking]The 220s and 221s? [/wishful thinking]

 

[RobShipway]

Not sure where you heard that! The 72TS are receiving life-extension work which should see them outlast the 73TS. When the NTfL eventually comes online, it will replace the 92TS, 73TS, and 72TS, and probably in that order!



I had forgotten that Merseyrail had planned to press ahead with replacement of their PEPs, so it will leave the 313/2s as the last ones standing! I'm not sure about the 316s though (and for what it's worth, the 507s and 508s are the only 5XXs on the network). 143s, I'm half expecting to still be here, with Porterbrook's modification programme, they should be able to find work somewhere, even if it is only a few units on peak-time crowd buster services.

As for Locos, I wouldn't be surprised to see some of DRS' heritage fleet being rationalised.

The 143's and 153's for that matter will get replaced by class 158's in the near future in Devon & Cornwall with the class 165/166's replacing the class 158's at Bristol so I do not see them staying around.

The class 507/508's are only about 2 -3 years younger than the class 313's, hence why I see them going, not just for the fact that Meseryrail intend to replace them.

Basically it is anything that was built before about 1986 that within the next 10 years is likely to be scrapped as they would have been replaced over the coming 10 years. This is basically without a lot of money spent on them, most will not be 2020 compliant. Some maybe still running until 2025, but will probably be replaced by then as more lines get electrified and you start to have the build up to having HS2.

 

[Tottenham Flyer]

I can't see the 317's lasting another 10 years. At least I hope they don't. The 315's are pretty solid machines, with a bit of TLC they'll easily do another 10 years work. The 317's are past their sell-by date now.

 

[physics34]

442s are not gonna be scrapped yet

 

[bramling]

[wishful thinking]The 220s and 221s? [/wishful thinking]

If we're including wishful thinking, can I nominate the class 700s? Utterly awful trains in virtually every respect.

 

[Mikey C]

Some tube stock: certainly the Bakerloo (72TS) which AFAIK is to be replaced by cascaded 73TS from the Piccadilly.

The 73 stock with its longer carriage length won't fit on the Bakerloo.

The 72s have many years of service left, the Bakerloo will be a heritage line

How many Class 91s will still be around in 10 years time? A tiny number for the ECML perhaps, and even there they may be replaced with new locos if the Mk4s are deemed worth keeping?

 

[bramling]

I can't see the 317's lasting another 10 years. At least I hope they don't. The 315's are pretty solid machines, with a bit of TLC they'll easily do another 10 years work. The 317's are past their sell-by date now.

Out of interest, what is wrong with the 317s? I don't use the WA ones, however the GN ones in my opinion are fit for purpose. I find them comfortable, and the interiors seem better quality than the newer 321s (apart from that they lack carpet). I'd be quite happy to have 317s go on a while yet. They could benefit from a refurbishment along the lines of the WAGN 317/6 job.

 

[507021]

One of the class 3xx's or one of the class 5XX's I believe will be replaced by the extra Class 387's that Porterbrook have ordered.

I very much doubt those extra 387s will be going to Merseyrail, because Merseytravel are going to own the new units (when they're ordered of course) they want to replace the PEP stock with, rather than leasing them from a ROSCO. Personally, I can see the 507s and 508s running for at least another five to seven years yet, but it could be longer depending on when the new fleet has been delivered.

 

[E&W Lucas]

Most of the HST fleet will go for scrap, once the IEP comes online.
Class 91 ditto, probably with a substantial part of the Mk IV fleet.
I wonder how many of the surviving 08s will still be soldiering on?
I wouldn't expect to see any 1st or 2nd generation locos still in use outside of heritage charters.

 

[Domh245]

The 143's and 153's for that matter will get replaced by class 158's in the near future in Devon & Cornwall with the class 165/166's replacing the class 158's at Bristol so I do not see them staying around.

What about the Welsh 143s? It is possible that those displaced by the 158s might make their way to join those. They may even end up going to AGA or EMT, but that is all speculation at the moment

The class 507/508's are only about 2 -3 years younger than the class 313's, hence why I see them going, not just for the fact that Meseryrail intend to replace them.

But if Merseyrail were to scrap them simply for being old without a replacement, they may find themselves short of trains to run their services with!

If we're including wishful thinking, can I nominate the class 700s? Utterly awful trains in virtually every respect.

Could you give me next week's lotto numbers?

 

[antharro]

142s, 313s, maybe the worst of the 315s and 317s. But there's such a demand for trains at the moment that even taking into account new build trains, I don't think we'll see as many scrapped as are being predicted.

HSTs, yeah, they'll start to disappear, but probably not too quickly. Obviously there will be the ones going to Scotland, I bet the tour operators will snap up a few too.

91s probably, along with the worst of the Mk4 fleet. It will be interesting to see if what's left is rebuilt in some way - better gearing for lower speed running with faster acceleration. Harder to find uses for these over HSTs, I think, but that might change once more wires go up - but will they still be around then?

442s, maybe. Depends on how the plan to run with with 68s goes. I think I recall reading somewhere that their electrics are more compatible with being loco hauled than an HST's Mk3s, which would need a re-wire? That works in their favour if so.

The last of the D stocks on LU will disappear, except for the one (two?) to be rebuilt into RATs. Don't think we'll see much other change on the LU. And because of that, I suspect the 38ts on the IoW will be hanging around a bit longer.

 

[RobShipway]

142s, 313s, maybe the worst of the 315s and 317s. But there's such a demand for trains at the moment that even taking into account new build trains, I don't think we'll see as many scrapped as are being predicted.

HSTs, yeah, they'll start to disappear, but probably not too quickly. Obviously there will be the ones going to Scotland, I bet the tour operators will snap up a few too.

91s probably, along with the worst of the Mk4 fleet. It will be interesting to see if what's left is rebuilt in some way - better gearing for lower speed running with faster acceleration. Harder to find uses for these over HSTs, I think, but that might change once more wires go up - but will they still be around then?

442s, maybe. Depends on how the plan to run with with 68s goes. I think I recall reading somewhere that their electrics are more compatible with being loco hauled than an HST's Mk3s, which would need a re-wire? That works in their favour if so.

The last of the D stocks on LU will disappear, except for the one (two?) to be rebuilt into RATs. Don't think we'll see much other change on the LU. And because of that, I suspect the 38ts on the IoW will be hanging around a bit longer.

Could any of the departing LU trains replace the trains on the IOW?

Also, could the MK4 coaches be re - geared to work with the HST class 43 power cars?

 

[swt_passenger]

Could any of the departing LU trains replace the trains on the IOW?

73 stock has been earmarked for the IOW for quite a few years.

 

[RobShipway]

73 stock has been earmarked for the IOW for quite a few years.

It would be better than the 1938 stock currently on the route.

 

[RichmondCommu]

I'm looking forward to seeing HST's going for scrap with wailing, screaming, hysterical rail enthusiasts chaining themselves to the power cars
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Also, could the MK4 coaches be re - geared to work with the HST class 43 power cars?

Why would anyone want to do that given the poor acceleration of the class 43's? They cannot possibly compete with distributed traction.

 

[antharro]

I'm looking forward to seeing HST's going for scrap with wailing, screaming, hysterical rail enthusiasts chaining themselves to the power cars

Heh. You really don't like HSTs, huh?

Why would anyone want to do that given the poor acceleration of the class 43's? They cannot possibly compete with distributed traction.

How about 43/91 combo?

Wouldn't mind seeing the back of XC's Voyagers. At least in their current configuration.

 

[urpert]

Not sure where you heard that! The 72TS are receiving life-extension work which should see them outlast the 73TS. When the NTfL eventually comes online, it will replace the 92TS, 73TS, and 72TS, and probably in that order.

You're absolutely right, I was mis-remembering an article on London Reconnections.

 

[The Ham]

Wouldn't mind seeing the back of XC's Voyagers. At least in their current configuration.

I can see some voyager end coaches being stored/scrapped to provide longer sets. Especially if XC start to run EMU's between the south coast and Manchester and ICWC don't require as many of their 221's.

 

[ffm]

Mk4 coaches do not need 're-gearing' to work with 43 power cars. Coaching stock is not geared! 43s ran with Mk4 stick with a 91 at the other end for a time, before DVT stock was available. Those 43s have buffers and are now GC's power cars

 

[RobShipway]

Mk4 coaches do not need 're-gearing' to work with 43 power cars. Coaching stock is not geared! 43s ran with Mk4 stick with a 91 at the other end for a time, before DVT stock was available. Those 43s have buffers and are now GC's power cars

Maybe re - geared was the wrong term but I know that there are Mk3 coaches that are wired up to work with class 43's and there are ones that are just wired up as loco hauled coaches.

So what I was asking are the MK4's wired such that they could work with the class 43's?