Pacer Replacement - What's Out there?

[glbotu]

So, I was considering the requirement for new build vehicles for Northern Rail as Pacer Replacement and decided to spend some time looking at what products existing train manufacturers actually offer, both in terms of new trains for Regional Express services, allowing cascades of 158 -> 150 -> Pacer, and direct replacement. Namely because a bespoke solution will likely be more expensive (I appreciate that the UK loading gauge issues mean any solution will have to be bespoke-ish, but it seems like train manufacturers recently have been offering UK variants on standard products, the Desiro, the Aventra etc.)

There are 140 Pacers out there, of which 102 are with Northern Rail. I'm only going to look at those 102 (because otherwise we'll be here all week looking at cascades. The government requirement is for 120 new build vehicles (which could be 30 x 4 car, 40 x 3 car or 60 x 2 car trains, the rest of which coming from cascades and electrification).

Largely, I'm looking for discussions about the various trains on offer by manufacturers, I've done a little digging to see what's out there, but also means by which cascades could be triggered.

I'm generally of the opinion that many bidders will be looking to enact an inward cascade of Class 170s, namely due to their ability to take on Sprinter differentials and the fact that there are LOTS of them (122 to be precise). Also, assuming the TPE (to Chiltern), XC and LM ones are off limits bounds, that leaves 68 trains (maybe the AGA ones are too so leaving 56 trains). Either way, they seem to mostly make up the deficit if we build somewhere around 60 new 2 car trains (and this is Northern, it's likely they'll be getting 2 car trains).

So what's out there:

Siemens:

Desiro - What? No, you can't be serious, those 4 car EMUs or 3 car TPE DMUs? Well, this is also a Desiro. That is in fact the "original" Desiro design. Could a UK version of this be made? I assume given Siemens's history they'd probably be quite keen. These tend to have about 100 seats, but way more standing capacity than a Pacer.

Stadler:

GTW - Stadler have yet to make inroads into the UK market, but this could be a reasonable pacer-replacement train, although the current models can only be ordered in 3.0 m loading gauge trains for Standard track gauge. Adapting to the UK market might make the trains too small to have decent capacity.

RS1 Regio-Shuttle - DB use them for local rail services, over 497 exist currently. They currently can be made with 101 seats and 94 standing places, but they'd probably count as single vehicles, so you'd need to order 120 of them, but this could be a somewhat more exotic solution. They'd have the advantage of offering greater than Pacer capacity with a single train, which could be decoupled in case of faults etc.

Bombardier:

Talent - Could be "Made in Derby".....maybe....... These seem pretty customisable, being used all over Germany and Norway in a variety of roles.

ITINO - A newer product and again, services a similar market to Pacers.

Alstom:

The Coradia LINT - basically a variant on the standard Desiro from Siemens, again, designed as a regional train. Also very customisable.

 

[northwichcat]

Rumour is Bombardier and Siemens aren't interested in bidding for the Northern minimum 120 carriages (which DON'T have to be direct Pacer replacements) but Stadler are interested and have offered a DEMU FLIRT, while CAF have offered a UK version of their Civity.

Bombardier Derby does have plenty of work at present as does Siemens Munich.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A UK Stadler FLIRT would be a very interesting thing, particularly as a bi-mode (which they already do). They do the right body shape already for Scandinavian railways, they just need to shrink it a bit and do a high floor version (which they already do for the Polish railways among others), and possibly do separate vehicles rather than articulated (which they also can already do) as artics are out of favour with Network Rail due to axle loads. I've travelled on these in Switzerland and they are of very high quality as you would expect for the "build up to a spec, not down to a price" culture Swiss industry follows.

Another option is a cascade - build some nice high-quality regional express units (172s with the InterCity type interior would do nicely), put those on faster Northern services, and replace Pacers with 150s. This may well make more sense overall.

Might a bi-mode, 3- or 4-car, InterCity spec Stadler FLIRT be perfect for Northern long-distance routes? Once more wires go up, the engines could be removed, making them simple EMUs.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Pacer replacement won't happen. They'll just move the refitted ePacers elsewhere. But aren't some HSTs going to be freed up?
The Desiro idea sounds good. But there won't be any money for new trains.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The HSTs are going to Scotland, aren't they? And not before time - ScotRail is yet another operator of 3-car DMUs on services that need 5 or 6.

The 142s will need to be replaced (as they are being scrapped and not converted to e-Pacers) at least. Unless line closures are forthcoming, which I doubt.

 

[northwichcat]

I've travelled on these in Switzerland and they are of very high quality as you would expect for the "build up to a spec, not down to a price" culture Swiss industry follows.
...
Might a bi-mode, 3- or 4-car, InterCity spec Stadler FLIRT be perfect for Northern long-distance routes?

While FLIRTs wouldn't be a cheap to build option 30 x 4 car FLIRTs would be cheaper than 60 x 2 car FLIRTs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

While FLIRTs wouldn't be a cheap to build option 30 x 4 car FLIRTs would be cheaper than 60 x 2 car FLIRTs.

As FLIRTs are quite short vehicles, 2-car ones would not really be sensible - 3 or 4-car are probably more like what is needed, possibly even 5.

 

[asylumxl]

While FLIRTs wouldn't be a cheap to build option 30 x 4 car FLIRTs would be cheaper than 60 x 2 car FLIRTs.

But not all places will be able to take 4 car, depending on carriage length.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Pacer replacement won't happen. They'll just move the refitted ePacers elsewhere.

I'll eat my hat if the e144 ever makes it into squadron service, given the fact that each two-car unit would lose nearly a quarter of the seating capacity. They'll also have to do something with the 142s, which the ROSCOs have said aren't worth the effort of converting.

I'd expect a lot of cascading to happen though. The Scotrail 156s will be available sooner rather than later, as will a fair few of their 158s (many of which were originally supposed to go to Northern), and I can see the worst examples of those coming back south of the border.

 

[47802]

The HSTs are going to Scotland, aren't they? And not before time - ScotRail is yet another operator of 3-car DMUs on services that need 5 or 6.

The 142s will need to be replaced (as they are being scrapped and not converted to e-Pacers) at least. Unless line closures are forthcoming, which I doubt.

Yes but there will be around 30 sets available from GWR and more from VTEC eventually. So some Scotrail style usage elsewhere might still happen, although I doubt it would be on Northern.

D trains may still be a Pacer replacement even if they don't get used at Northern by allowing sprinters to be cascaded from eleswhere

 

[northwichcat]

But not all places will be able to take 4 car, depending on carriage length.

Most 4 car FLIRTs are around 80m in length, which includes a small articulated engine vehicle so the point Neil Williams makes about 2 car being too small is valid.

Northern aren't losing the 2 car Sprinters, in fact they'll probably gain more, so the new trains don't have to be suitable for every single service, especially considering there won't be anywhere near enough to run on every line. The majority of lines can take at least 80m.

 

[Haydn1971]

I'm fully expecting the expensive to hire 120 DMU cars to drop onto the higher revenue long distance routes in the next franchise, enabling cascades down of older 150/156/158 units to replace the 14x fleets. Keep it simple, keep it cheap.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Northern aren't losing the 2 car Sprinters, in fact they'll probably gain more, so the new trains don't have to be suitable for every single service, especially considering there won't be anywhere near enough to run on every line. The majority of lines can take at least 80m.

Indeed so. I would suggest the best targets for new stock are the Barrows (which I think are to be transferred from TPE?), Blackpools, Calder Valley and other similar "regional express" type services - if there could be enough to allow new, sufficiently long stock to operate all the "Northern Regional" services (and abandon 2-car operation other than the quiet branches) it could provide some excellent publicity for those services.

 

[47802]

I'm fully expecting the expensive to hire 120 DMU cars to drop onto the higher revenue long distance routes in the next franchise, enabling cascades down of older 150/156/158 units to replace the 14x fleets. Keep it simple, keep it cheap.

That's one possibility the other is they are aimed a busy commuter routes out of the major Northern Cities

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's one possibility the other is they are aimed a busy commuter routes out o the major Northern Cities

That would be a possibility, but would seem a waste of what could be quality new stock when 150s are absolutely fine for commuter services, combined with more 317s, 319s or whatever spare EMUs for electric services.

 

[sprinterguy]

I'd expect a lot of cascading to happen though. The Scotrail 156s will be available sooner rather than later, as will a fair few of their 158s (many of which were originally supposed to go to Northern), and I can see the worst examples of those coming back south of the border.

Scotrail will be retaining 38 of the 156s they operate (out of a current total of 48) until the end of the franchise.

In terms of 158s, only the eight Angel Trains owned units that Scotrail lease will be returned to the ROSCO (which are the eight which were at one time earmarked for Northern) - the remaining forty are being retained.

It is mainly class 170s that Scotrail will be releasing, with 29 units becoming available between June 2018 and June 2019.

 

[Bletchleyite]

How many 14x do Northern have again? Sending all of those 170s to Northern for the regional express services, followed by a cascade, may at least provide part of a solution. And those units do have interiors of the appropriate standard.

 

[sprinterguy]

The HSTs are going to Scotland, aren't they? And not before time - ScotRail is yet another operator of 3-car DMUs on services that need 5 or 6.

27 former FGW HSTs will be going to Scotrail - Accounting for around half the FGW power cars, but a good deal less in terms of coaching stock (As the Scotrail sets are proposed to operate in 2+4 and 2+5 formations).

 

[Bletchleyite]

27 former FGW HSTs will be going to Scotrail - Accounting for around half the FGW power cars, but a good deal less in terms of coaching stock (As the Scotrail sets are proposed to operate in 2+4 and 2+5 formations).

Any possible mileage in converting the spare coaching stock to be hauled by Class 68s, perhaps building a cab on one end of one vehicle?

 

[northwichcat]

How many 14x do Northern have again?

79 x 2 car 142
13 x 2 car 144
10 x 3 car 144

It's worth noting that Northern will eventually need their own stock (not loaned 185s) to run the services which transfer from TPE that will include Barrow to Manchester Airport and Liverpool to Manchester via Warrington, which Northern won't be able to utilise EMUs on.

Also there are new services starting in December 2017 and December 2019 which included enhanced services on the Calder Vale, Buxton, Mid-Cheshire, Chester/Ellesmere Port to Manchester via Warrington and Harrogate lines among others not currently set to be electrified.

 

[47802]

Any possible mileage in converting the spare coaching stock to be hauled by Class 68s, perhaps building a cab on one end of one vehicle?

Or of course using a 442 instead

Of course using more 4 and 5 coach HST's or 67/68's dragging 442's is possible but I suspect there's only really a limited number routes where that would be really justified I guess such Manchester/North Wales - Cardiff might be a possibility

 

[Bletchleyite]

So even if they get all the 170s there will need to be more. I think a new build is probably unavoidable.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Of course using more 4 and 5 coach HST's or 67/68's dragging 442's is possible but I suspect there's only really a limited number routes where that would be really justified I guess such Manchester/North Wales Cardiff might be a possibility

21 posts and we've reached loco-hauled 442s

Running all North Wales Coast services as (Mk3) LHCS again could be a good move, releasing some 158s.

 

[ainsworth74]

I'll eat my hat if the e144 ever makes it into squadron service, given the fact that each two-car unit would lose nearly a quarter of the seating capacity.

My money at the moment has them being used as 153 replacements as a two car e144 has basically the same seating capacity as a single 153 (actually a couple of seats more I believe). I think the residents of Lincolnshire may wish to study closely the e144 as I have a feeling they'll become something of a mainstay on those lines in the near future.

 

[northwichcat]

My money at the moment has them being used as 153 replacements as a two car e144 has basically the same seating capacity as a single 153 (actually a couple of seats more I believe). I think the residents of Lincolnshire may wish to study closely the e144 as I have a feeling they'll become something of a mainstay on those lines in the near future.

I agree with your thinking. It's also worth noting that when Patrick McLoughlin was asked if all Pacers will be withdrawn by 2020, he said Pacers will not be used by the next Northern franchise by 2020. When asked again clarifying across all franchises not just Northern he refused to answer.

 

[The Ham]

But not all places will be able to take 4 car, depending on carriage length.

Given that SWT's can cope with ASDO with 12 coach trains calling at stations which can only cope with 6 coaches; then I don't see that a station with space for 3 coaches couldn't be served by a new build trains with ASDO built in and 4 or 5 coaches (assuming that the train didn't block junctions or caused another issue which impacted on capacity of the line).

Given that the train would be longer I doubt that being stuck in one coach due to passenger loading is likely to be a problem.

 

[glbotu]

Any possible mileage in converting the spare coaching stock to be hauled by Class 68s, perhaps building a cab on one end of one vehicle?

My understanding is that's one of the major considerations for TPE, rather than for Northern.

Section 5.4.2.2 of the ITT is pretty explicit in its requirement for a self-powered multiple unit train made of completely new-build stock. I did state that it didn't have to be a pacer replacement, but surely it would be part of the solution (in that displacing 158s/156s would allow Pacer withdrawal). It doesn't say other things aren't allowed in addition (except D-Trains* and Loco-Hauled 442s** - maybe Patrick McLoughlin is on these forums).

*In a convoluted way.
** Explicitly.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You're right that it blocks 442s, but I suspect that is to ensure their availability for TPE, where they are mentioned as explicitly an option.

I'm less than convinced it blocks D-trains provided they do not make up the specified number of brand-new vehicles and are in addition to them.

 

[northwichcat]

I'm less than convinced it blocks D-trains provided they do not make up the specified number of brand-new vehicles and are in addition to them.

The ITT does require them to be classed as new build vehicles to be permitted, as for existing self-powered vehicles the ITT only allows inbound cascades of 15xs and 17xs and temporary loans of 185s from TPE.

 

[Wolfie]

I'll eat my hat if the e144 ever makes it into squadron service, given the fact that each two-car unit would lose nearly a quarter of the seating capacity. They'll also have to do something with the 142s, which the ROSCOs have said aren't worth the effort of converting.

I agree with your 142 comment. I have to challenge your e-Pacer comment though. Forgetting Northern for a moment, what exactly do you think will replace Pacers for ATW given the 2019 deadline for DDA compliance and the fact that electrification of the Valleys has now slipped to 2023 and will likely slip more? E-Pacers (all of the 143s and 144s?) and/or D-Trains look highly viable.....

My money at the moment has them being used as 153 replacements as a two car e144 has basically the same seating capacity as a single 153 (actually a couple of seats more I believe). I think the residents of Lincolnshire may wish to study closely the e144 as I have a feeling they'll become something of a mainstay on those lines in the near future.

I agree that (or perhaps 2 car D-Train deployment) is possible.

 

[Grimsby town]

My money at the moment has them being used as 153 replacements as a two car e144 has basically the same seating capacity as a single 153 (actually a couple of seats more I believe). I think the residents of Lincolnshire may wish to study closely the e144 as I have a feeling they'll become something of a mainstay on those lines in the near future.

They'd definitely be useful for the Barton Line and would cope easily with the loads. I think they may struggle with loads at some point of the day with every other route in the East Midlands franchise so would need to run as 3 car of doubled up.

If they do come to the East Midlands Franchise they should be coming to improve the service on top of what is already in place. For example running trains to Edwinstowe and Ollerton. Introducing a new stopping service between Grantham / Boston and Nottingham. Increasing the frequency from Lincoln to Newark NG, Nottingham, Doncaster and Grimsby.