Midland Main Line project in jeopardy?

[snowball]

TMS has very, very quietly been stopped though.

I'm sure Roger Ford will go on doing his best to prevent it being too quiet.

Mr Carne even said so in the FAQ currently on connect, admitting it's too expensive and won't give us enough benefit at this current time.

Do you have a link for that please?

 

[Senex]

Zero.

Isn't it Zero with Level 2 but could be more with Level 3? But am I not right in thinking that there isn't a single functioning installation of Level 3 so far?

 

[carriageline]

I'm sure Roger Ford will go on doing his best to prevent it being too quiet.



Do you have a link for that please?

Unfortunately not, it's on the internal intranet.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I just think of them as a generation beyond Sprinters (I know technically they are 2 generations after the Networkers as well), they aren't brand new but they are perfectly suitable.

Provided they are new enough units to have working aircon (or have had it replaced), how desirable they are is presumably solely down to the quality of the interior fit-out. 158s are getting old, but there are some *very* nice interiors out there such as the ATW one, or the similar but even better Inverness one.

 

[Stats]

I believe 170's could be scrounged up from their various operators over the next few years to reinforce South TPE, Scotrail for instance will be releasing 29.

170s can only be cascaded in to TPE if the successful Northern bidder hasn't proposed using them.

 

[Olaf]

Before I pop down the florists to buy a wreath, other than a report in one newspaper, which people on here normally treat with contempt, is there the slightest bit of proof at this stage that the MML electrification is to be delayed in any way whatsoever ?

I expect there will be an announcement in the July/August - perhaps the latter after Parliament is in recess - but exactly what the announcement will detail is not known yet. I think NR still have not been able to deliver sufficiently reliable plans and estimates on its CP5 work stream - nothing can be formalised until that is delivered - a bit like the Greece farce.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I would have thought the MML project was one of the better ones. It is a mainline, a reasonable length is already electrified and it has better connectivity in terms of surrounding electrified areas than the Great Western.

Agreed.

Infact, the only way it seems to fall down is against non InterCity type schemes, simply because we already have an inbuilt shortage of local diesel stock, whereas we are likely to have a surfeit of InterCity type diesel stock even when the 125's go.

The problem is, NR's recent performance on the other electrification schemes and projects has under-mined confidence in it's ability to deliver the agreed work packages within budget and scope. Once the CP5 work stream has been more accurately costed and scheduled it will be possible to determine what will be the realistically deliverable in CP5. It will not be indefinite cancellation, but probably rather a change of scope and time-scales to fit with available budget - perhaps into CP7 if thinks turn bad. Availability of rolling-stock is a minor factor.

P.S.
I would add that unless there is a substantial announcement on Greece before the money markets open in Asia on Monday, there will be significant turbulence in Europe over the coming months which is more than likely to lead to an emergency budget for the UK. With all the implications that will have for patronage and available funds, I would expect NR work streams will have to go through a further stage of re-planning.

 

[QueensCurve]

Why build when you can borrow at the lowest rates for 400 years? If true the Treasury and UK govt really are utter morons, but then we know that. Better to fund infrastructure and long term investments at far higher borrowing costs, if done at all.

I don't think HM Government are "morons" or anything like it.

They are ideologically committed to austerity and certain other concepts like "network rail is deeply inefficient".

Not to suggest that there is any validity in network rail being inefficient, it is just that each party has its rhetorical position. When a government changes the new government immediately reverts to the natural rhetorical position last heard when they were last in office.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I don't particularly dislike the idea of the MML electrification but the whole 'National Spine' south coast freight thing was a disaster, a political project that the freight industry itself said they wernt interested in and was a waste of money. I would be happy if that was sacrificed and the industry itself would be happy if the focus shifted to connecting important yards rather than trying to create a national route which they couldn't use because the last mile and freight lines remained unelectrified.

The "Electric Spine" thing never made sense since the major freight port is Felixstowe, not Southampton. Hence the freight requirements would be better served by electrification from Felixstowe to Nuneaton.

That is not to say MML electrification is a bad thing, just that the business case may not have been robust.+

Now Network Rail is nationalised, we can expect HMG to exert more control over infrastructure projects and Network Rail generally.

 

[Class 170101]

Transpennine wiring has been suspended indefinitely, but not yet cancelled. To me it looks like the government is planning to announce a major upgrade of the main Transpennine route in the CP6 HLOS, including as yet to be determined track and signalling upgrades, station capacity enhancements and electrification all in one package for completion by the end of CP6 in 2024/25, which is beyond the end of the next TPE franchise in 2023 (TBA later this year).

With Transpennine wiring suspended for the foreseeable it should hopefully allow NR to focus resources on other schemes like MML and GW electrification and get them back on track (no pun intended).

Only downside is that more schemes that are delayed from CP5 into CP6 then the less wiring that can be undertaken in CP6 so plans like the Northern Sparks report look more and more fanciful.

I admire your optimism but I think the emergency budget will be used as a vehicle to, at best delay and more likely, cancel it. TP suspension won't see wiring resources go elsewhere as its different contractors, as alluded to above. If there are delays from CP5 to CP6 then indeed less wiring schemes are likely to be proposed in CP6, if any at all.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

I admire your optimism but I think the emergency budget will be used as a vehicle to, at best delay and more likely, cancel it. TP suspension won't see wiring resources go elsewhere as its different contractors, as alluded to above. If there are delays from CP5 to CP6 then indeed less wiring schemes are likely to be proposed in CP6, if any at all.

You're forgetting about Osbourne's Northern Powerhouse though, last thing he will want to do is compromise that agenda hence why what I suggested in my previous post that there will be a major upgrade of Transpennine routes in CP6 (which conveniently for Osbourne will involve spending in the early 2020's by which time the deficit will be a distant memory).

Yes you are correct that Transpennine wiring was a different contractor but as I understand it there is a shortage of manpower and skilled engineers for electrification schemes so the less wiring that takes place then the more people available for schemes like GW and MML. However as you say the more schemes that are delayed into CP6 then the less new wiring schemes that are going to be authorised for CP6. CP5 electrification schemes that are already now running into CP6 include:-

• Transpennine North
• MML North from Derby to Sheffield then on to Doncaster/Moorthorpe
• Welsh Vallys
• Bletchley to Bedfird upgrade as part of the electric spine.

Any others?

 

[158756]

You're forgetting about Osbourne's Northern Powerhouse though, last thing he will want to do is compromise that agenda hence why what I suggested in my previous post that there will be a major upgrade of Transpennine routes in CP6 (which conveniently for Osbourne will involve spending in the early 2020's by which time the deficit will be a distant memory).

As I see it, the Northern Powerhouse (and HS3) are meaningless phrases to gain votes and be quietly forgotten now they've won the election. Looking at the results in the North, it wasn't a very successful gimmick either.

What has Osborne actually done (ie spent) that indicates he's serious about it?

I think projects are unlikely to be cancelled entirely though unless there's a complete rethink of whether electrification at the new costs is really the way forward.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What has Osborne actually done (ie spent) that indicates he's serious about it?

He's negotiating with the northern (Labour) city regions to devolve significant infrastructure spending from Whitehall.
No sign of that not happening, assuming the councils can agree to work together.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

As I see it, the Northern Powerhouse (and HS3) are meaningless phrases to gain votes and be quietly forgotten now they've won the election. Looking at the results in the North, it wasn't a very successful gimmick either.

What has Osborne actually done (ie spent) that indicates he's serious about it?

I think projects are unlikely to be cancelled entirely though unless there's a complete rethink of whether electrification at the new costs is really the way forward.

Given his first major post election speech was in Manchester and talked about building a Northern Powerhouse as a top priority plus the transport secretary has also mentioned it I think that skepticism is unfounded.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chancellor-on-building-a-northern-powerhouse

He's negotiating with the northern (Labour) city regions to devolve significant infrastructure spending from Whitehall.
No sign of that not happening, assuming the councils can agree to work together.

That's part of the plan to devolve powers from Whitehall to local authorities including transport so Manchester can expand it's tram network without government approval. However to really build a Nothern powerhouse then transport links between city regions need to improve hence HS3, but HS3 won't happen for another 15 years hence why I think the government are planning a major upgrade of existing Transpennine routes (including signalling and electrification) for the short to medium term with HS3 as a longer term goal.

 

[Class 170101]

You're forgetting about Osbourne's Northern Powerhouse though, last thing he will want to do is compromise that agenda hence why what I suggested in my previous post that there will be a major upgrade of Transpennine routes in CP6 (which conveniently for Osbourne will involve spending in the early 2020's by which time the deficit will be a distant memory).

As 158756 has alluded to it looks like a scheme to gain votes, however I, like yourself and, I am sure 15756, hope we are both wrong but we are dealing with politicans who change their minds once in power - ref Lib Dems and Tuition fees.

Yes you are correct that Transpennine wiring was a different contractor but as I understand it there is a shortage of manpower and skilled engineers for electrification schemes so the less wiring that takes place then the more people available for schemes like GW and MML. However as you say the more schemes that are delayed into CP6 then the less new wiring schemes that are going to be authorised for CP6. CP5 electrification schemes that are already now running into CP6 include:-

• Transpennine North
• MML North from Derby to Sheffield then on to Doncaster/Moorthorpe
• Welsh Vallys
• Bletchley to Bedfird upgrade as part of the electric spine.

Any others?

Was Sheffield to Doncaster / Moorthorpe actually authorised I don't recall it being so. The other scheme, that was announced in Jan / Feb this year by Cameron and Osborne when at the Bombardier plant in Derby, to be looked into was wiring between Bristol and Derby on the Cross Country Route that seems to have gone quiet.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

As 158756 has alluded to it looks like a scheme to gain votes, however I, like yourself and, I am sure 15756, hope we are both wrong but we are dealing with politicans who change their minds once in power - ref Lib Dems and Tuition fees.


Was Sheffield to Doncaster / Moorthorpe actually authorised I don't recall it being so. The other scheme, that was announced in Jan / Feb this year by Cameron and Osborne when at the Bombardier plant in Derby, to be looked into was wiring between Bristol and Derby on the Cross Country Route that seems to have gone quiet.

I think that was a feasibility study into electrification for inclusion in the HLOS for CP6 so should hear something in the next year or so. I think NR on Doncaster/Moorthorpe published something in the documents about MML electrification to there by the end of 2021.

 

[eMeS]

Somebody asked what was happening north of Bedford?

North of this bridge

there's a contractor's plant yard on the east side of the tracks

and a short distance to the north, there appear to be new bases at each side of the tracks.

Looking north towards Oakley.

All the above were taken on 12th June 2015.

 

[aylesbury]

Interesting shot north of Bedford perhaps they are going to wire to Nottingham and then sit down and have a think.Sheffield is a must but I wonder if its a priority at the moment and I agree about the electric spine the east coast ports should have priority as that's were the money is made on the railway.

 

[richieb1971]

I noticed there was a kind of level crossing across the slow tracks at lower farm road. What is that going to be used for?

 

[edwin_m]

Probably an access point for road rail vehicles.

 

[QueensCurve]

He's negotiating with the northern (Labour) city regions to devolve significant infrastructure spending from Whitehall.
No sign of that not happening, assuming the councils can agree to work together.

Then Manchester or other cities get to cut the funding for projects and Gideon sidesteps the blame.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Somebody asked what was happening north of Bedford?
and a short distance to the north, there appear to be new bases at each side of the tracks.
All the above were taken on 12th June 2015.

They certainly look like OHLE piled mast bases, with more to go in the yard.
The spacing looks a bit odd, but that may just be the foreshortening with a long lens.
They've only done half the job so far though!

 

[richieb1971]

Probably an access point for road rail vehicles.

This was confirmed by someone today at the bridge. Those little JCB things that have rail and road wheels on them. They are all new as well, at least 4 of them I think.

I saw the pipes that were pile drived into the ground. Seems strange that the day they are going in is actually marked on them. I hope they do more than 1 pipe on Tuesday, and another on Wednesday etc.

 

[route:oxford]

Then Manchester or other cities get to cut the funding for projects and Gideon sidesteps the blame.

With power comes responsibility.

Don't the most senior local authority staff earn more than the Chancellor?

 

[Stats]

An announcement tomorrow is expected reports The Guardian

www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/24/network-rail-funding-gap-scuppers-five-year-investment-plan

The catalogue of delay, missed targets and overspending at Network Rail is set to force ministers to admit that the vaunted biggest investment in the railway since Victorian times will not deliver the projects promised in a £38.5bn five-year plan.

The electrification of the Midland mainline linking London to Sheffield, described as “critical to maintaining a reliable railway”, is likely to be axed from the schedule as ministers attempt to get to grips with Network Rail’s soaring costs.

The transport secretary, Patrick McLoughlin, is expected to announce on Thursday that the dramatic spending increase for projects such as the electrification of the Great Western line has made pledges in the five-year plan untenable.

 

[Haydn1971]

The rolling stock plan will be in chaos ! I can see HST's being cascaded to MML at this rate....

Meanwhile, in London ! It's a new rolling stock bonanza !

 

[RichmondCommu]

This is very disappointing as it suggests that the DfT do not feel that Network Rail can manage infrastructure projects properly. It also casts into doubt the chances of completing other electrification projects such as wires to Swansea and the Valleys. It also means that a considerable amount of money will have been wasted in preparing the MML for electrification given all the work that has been done on various bridges and consultancy work north of Kettering.

This also doesn't bode well for cost control on HS2 (assuming that Network Rail has anything to do with it) and makes one wonder whether other projects such as the MML electrification project are being cancelled to pay for it. I sincerely hope this isn't the case as the SNCF seems to be hell bent on concentrating on LGV routes and nothing else.

Very sad, just as predicted by Olaf.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The rolling stock plan will be in chaos ! I can see HST's being cascaded to MML at this rate....

Meanwhile, in London ! It's a new rolling stock bonanza !

Haydn, are you pulling our legs?? Where would you send the Meridians and why would you replace them with HST's?

 

[john.aston.96]

More 68s to push the then redundant mk4s around?

 

[RichmondCommu]

More 68s to push the then redundant mk4s around?

I don't if its possible to order more class 68's due to the emissions rules but I might be wrong on that. The other issue is that class 68's can't run at 125 mph and I would be interested to know whether they would be able to accelerate at the same rate as a HST.

 

[The Planner]

It also means that a considerable amount of money will have been wasted in preparing the MML for electrification given all the work that has been done on various bridges and consultancy work north of Kettering.

Surely not a waste if its cleared the bridges for wires if the project happens later?

This also doesn't bode well for cost control on HS2 (assuming that Network Rail has anything to do with it)

Nothing to do with NR, HS2 is its own beast.

 

[Haydn1971]

Haydn, are you pulling our legs?? Where would you send the Meridians and why would you replace them with HST's?

Of course I am !

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

This is very disappointing as it suggests that the DfT do not feel that Network Rail can manage infrastructure projects properly. It also casts into doubt the chances of completing other electrification projects such as wires to Swansea and the Valleys. It also means that a considerable amount of money will have been wasted in preparing the MML for electrification given all the work that has been done on various bridges and consultancy work north of Kettering.

David Cameron answered a specific question at PMQs today, and confirmed the commitment to electrification to Swansea and to contribute £125m to Valleys electrification.
No mention of timescale though.
MML is worrying. They have just started up the project and let the first contracts.
Postponing it out of CP5 at this stage will incur extra costs, and throws doubt on East-West Rail timescales.

Apart from electrification, the other big area of overrun is resignalling (the projects overlap in places like Bristol).