General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[ainsworth74]

Presumably that would be a good thing, as it would prevent Europe going to war with itself...

Does that seem especially likely? Also have you heard of civil wars?

 

[St Rollox]

So what should David Cameron do with the SNP?
Humour them, ignore them or laugh at them.
Remember the SNP will be sitting in Westminster for the next five years.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Does that seem especially likely? Also have you heard of civil wars?

I was being facetious, considering the claim is presumably meant to cause outrage

 

[radamfi]

So what should David Cameron do with the SNP?
Humour them, ignore them or laugh at them.
Remember the SNP will be sitting in Westminster for the next five years.

The Tories have a majority. They can ignore everyone else. They'll be ignoring Labour who have far more seats than the SNP.

 

[ainsworth74]

I was being facetious, considering the claim is presumably meant to cause outrage

Ah well that's alright then

*Quietly turns off outrage bus*
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So what should David Cameron do with the SNP?

Make Salmond Secretary of State for Scotland?

 

[TheKnightWho]

The Tories have a majority. They can ignore everyone else. They'll be ignoring Labour who have far more seats than the SNP.

Not quite. There will be Tory defectors, and whilst they can probably count on parties like the DUP to vote through some harsher policies, cancelling out low-levels of defectors, they will find it difficult with controversial stuff.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour making friends with the Lib Dems, Greens and especially the SNP to create an anti-Tory bloc. With a few defectors they should be able to push through certain things, or at least can threaten Tory legislation in exchange for certain concessions.

This is no Blairite majority of 1997.

 

[Tetchytyke]

The Tories have a majority. They can ignore everyone else. They'll be ignoring Labour who have far more seats than the SNP.

In theory, although as they only have a technical majority of 6 and a real majority of 10 it would be a risky strategy.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Labour have been annihilated in Scotland because they weren't left-wing enough.

Can anyone enlighten me as to what was being stated at a Labour Party meeting in Scotland when some of the SNP hecklers shouted "Red Tories", as the correlation between those two words leaves me with a certain amount of quizzical wonderment...

 

[me123]

I don't support the minor parties which lose the most from the system (the UKIPs and Greens of the world), but 3,881,129 votes = 1 MP (UKIP), 1,157,613 = 1 MP (Green), while 1,454,436 = 56 MPs (SNP) means that so many people's voice goes unheard.

I think this result firmly puts voting reform back on the agenda.

Me too. Although I think it's highly likely that the 2020 General Election will be a FPTP because the incumbent Tories are quite happy to govern with a majority, and I suspect will continue want to do so (even if David Cameron would consider a third term "one Shredded Wheat too many").

If you look at the main parties and divide the number of votes by number of seats, you can see how unfair the system is (essentially giving you the number of votes required to elect one MP).

Conservative = 34,244.47 votes/MP
Labour = 40,290.20 votes/MP
SNP = 25,972.07 votes/MP
Lib Dem = 301,986 votes/MP
DUP = 23,032.5 votes/MP
Sinn Fein = 44,058 votes/MP
Plaid Cymru = 60,564.67 votes/MP
SDLP = 33,029.67 votes/MP
UUP = 57,467.5 votes/MP
UKIP = 3,881,129 votes/MP
Green = 1,157,613 votes/MP

Note that, whilst the SNP have the lowest vote:MP ratio in mainstrain UK politics, Northern Ireland's mainstream MPs also need low numbers, and indeed the Democratic Unionists needed fewer votes per MP than the SNP.

This is unfair. It happens because FPTP relies on concentration of support, which is why the SNP have done so well. They generated widespread and concentrated support throughout Scotland. It annoys me greatly that this is really only being highlighted now because the SNP have won - it has been an issue throughout recent history, with Labour and the Tories generally managing to form majorities for the last few decades with a minority share of the overall vote. I can assure you that, had Labour won 56 Scottish seats last night, this wouldn't be quite as much of an issue. And we'd still have a Tory majority.

In spite of the favourable SNP result, I will still campaign for PR, which has proven itself once again in this election to be generally undemocratic.

_______________

Meanwhile, Cameron announces his cabinet. Will surprise no-one (and probably please fewer) to hear that George Osborne remains as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Similarly, Theresa May will get to push through her "snoopers charter" as she continues in her role as Home Secretary.

I don't expect a major shake-up of the existing cabinet members, but it'll be interesting to see who fills in the Lib Dem's vacancies. We've got:
Deputy Prime Minister (Previously Nick Clegg, potentially will not be used)
Secretary of State for Business, Innovation & Skills (Previously Vince Cable)
Secretary of State for Energy & Climate Change (Previously Ed Davey)
Secretary of State for Scotland (Previously Alistair Carmichael - will almost certainly go to David Mundell, the only Scottish Tory MP)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Previously Danny Alexander)

Also:
Minister of State for the Cabinet Office & Minister of State for Schools (both posts held by David Laws)

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Not quite. There will be Tory defectors, and whilst they can probably count on parties like the DUP to vote through some harsher policies, cancelling out low-levels of defectors, they will find it difficult with controversial stuff.

Do you not feel that the actual performance of the UKIP candidates in this General Election in terms of seat gains would be at the back of the minds of such possible Conservative defectors?

 

[northwichcat]

Me too. Although I think it's highly likely that the 2020 General Election will be a FPTP because the incumbent Tories are quite happy to govern with a majority, and I suspect will continue want to do so (even if David Cameron would consider a third term "one Shredded Wheat too many").

I think the Conservatives will want to resurrect their 'each ward should have roughly the same number of electorates' policy. That would reduce the number of Scottish seats (and also the number of seats Labour and the Lib Dems might hope to win back in the future.)

 

[Tetchytyke]

Do you not feel that the actual performance of the UKIP candidates in this General Election in terms of seat gains would be at the back of the minds of such possible Conservative defectors?

They wouldn't leave the party, they'd just be a PITA to the leadership. Think of the fun someone like Robert Halfron will have.

Although Cameron could always do what Major did in the 90s, and sack enough Tory MPs to end up with a minority

 

[bb21]

Not quite. There will be Tory defectors, and whilst they can probably count on parties like the DUP to vote through some harsher policies, cancelling out low-levels of defectors, they will find it difficult with controversial stuff.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour making friends with the Lib Dems, Greens and especially the SNP to create an anti-Tory bloc. With a few defectors they should be able to push through certain things, or at least can threaten Tory legislation in exchange for certain concessions.

This is no Blairite majority of 1997.

Labour + LibDem + SNP + Plaid + Greens would give 300, so still require a rebellion of 24 Tory MPs assuming that Sinn Fein abstain and the others vote with the Tories, so unless the bill is fairly controversial, I reckon the government would have enough to push it through. There may be some bargaining power but probably not much, but we shall see.

(God this thread moves so fast I am struggling to keep up.)

 

[radamfi]

Voting reform has been discussed for decades, mostly in relation to the unfairness suffered by the Lib Dems, and before that the SDP/Liberal Alliance and before that the Liberals.

Talking doesn't work. Maybe direct action could?

 

[me123]

I think the Conservatives will want to resurrect their 'each ward should have roughly the same number of electorates' policy. That would reduce the number of Scottish seats (and also the number of seats Labour and the Lib Dems might hope to win back in the future.)

Good old Gerrymandering at its finest. Yet another reason why FPTP is an utterly reprehensible system.
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Labour + LibDem + SNP + Plaid + Greens would give 300, so still require a rebellion of 24 Tory MPs assuming that Sinn Fein abstain and the others vote with the Tories, so unless the bill is fairly controversial, I reckon the government would have enough to push it through. There may be some bargaining power but probably not much, but we shall see.

(God this thread moves so fast I am struggling to keep up.)

And don't forget the DUP - the Northern Irish support could boost the Conservative's majority even further if it can be gathered, and could prove helpful to the new government in the case of a back bench rebellion - those eight seats could be just enough.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Labour + LibDem + SNP + Plaid + Greens would give 300

I reckon the pro-Tory side (Tory + UKIP + UUP + DUP) would have 342, with the anti-Tory side having 303 through Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid, Greens and the SDLP in Northern Ireland. They'd have 304 if you include the ex-UUP MP Lady Hermon, who left the UUP because they joined up with the Tories and is now an independent. It'd only need 20 to move from the pro-Tory side to see something sunk.

That means the Whips will need to negotiate with backbenchers an awful lot more, which should (theoretically) mean that the most controversial stuff gets diluted.

 

[St Rollox]

Can anyone enlighten me as to what was being stated at a Labour Party meeting in Scotland when some of the SNP hecklers shouted "Red Tories", as the correlation between those two words leaves me with a certain amount of quizzical wonderment...

It's claimed many Scottish Labour members are right-wingers in the Blairite sense.
Hard to believe somebody could call themselves left-wing and agree to spending millions on Trident/Iraq War/Austerity/Saving the Union etc
So Jim Murphy is classed as a Red (Labour) Tory (right winger)
He is also classed as a Green Tory by left wing supporters at Celtic FC.
Personally i find these labels childish.

Is a Tory "Wet" a Blue Socialist?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Do you not feel that the actual performance of the UKIP candidates in this General Election in terms of seat gains would be at the back of the minds of such possible Conservative defectors?

Rebel would be a better word. I meant leftie Tories willing to go against the whip on hardline Tory issues.

 

[yorksrob]

It's claimed many Scottish Labour members are right-wingers in the Blairite sense.
Hard to believe somebody could call themselves left-wing and agree to spending millions on Trident/Iraq War/Austerity/Saving the Union etc
So Jim Murphy is classed as a Red (Labour) Tory (right winger)
He is also classed as a Green Tory by left wing supporters at Celtic FC.
Personally i find these labels childish.

Is a Tory "Wet" a Blue Socialist?

It's also childish to suggest that separatists have a monopoly on left of centre policy.

 

[me123]

It's also childish to suggest that separatists have a monopoly on left of centre policy.

Indeed, it's simplistic to consider Scottish nationalist sentiment as being tied to the political left or right.

A more realistic way to look at it (for Scottish politics) would be to perhaps adapt the political compass model and add a z axis, running between nationalism and unionism.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Anyone with any thoughts of the Russell Brand exhortation for voters to give their support to the Labour Party?

 

[crehld]

Anyone with any thoughts of the Russell Brand exhortation for voters to give their support to the Labour Party?

Probably no impact whatsoever! Those who weren't going to vote Labour wouldn't have been swayed by his intervention regardless, and those who did vote Labour certainly didn't require Brand's endorsement. Those who weren't going to vote at all didn't.

 

[Bevan Price]

Home rule for the North of England !!!!!!!

It is time to start resisting the likely perpetual control by the Tory-dominated south.

 

[Dave1987]

Fantastic result as far as I'm concerned. The one thing that really concerns me is that people are afraid to admit they will vote Tory for the fear of being targeted by left wing socialists. One Tory candidate had "Tory Scum" spray painted and scratched into the side of her car. There are a few hoarding near where I live with anti Tory graffiti sprayed on them. Some of the abuse on social media from SNP and Labour activists I just appalling. People should be allowed to vote and stand in an election without out fear of being targeted for their political beliefs.

 

[St Rollox]

For old Scottish Socialists like me the SNP is nothing more than a vehicle to move the story on.
Labour's best hope in Scotland would be to go for full Home Rule.
That's everything minus Defence and Foreign Affairs.
After that it's onwards to independence.

 

[12CSVT]

One interesting scenario would be the Tories losing seven or more MPs in by-elections (quite plausible after 2 or 3 years)
Would they run as a minority government, or would there be horse trading with other parties mid-term.

 

[Kite159]

This area the new tory candidate had a slight decrease in percentage of vote, but managed to increase the majority from 18.5K to 23.9K, due to the Lib Dems collapsing.

Looking at the map, Hampshire is pretty much all blue apart from one of the Southampton seats (labour held), Wiltshire is all blue.

 

[Dave1987]

For old Scottish Socialists like me the SNP is nothing more than a vehicle to move the story on.
Labour's best hope in Scotland would be to go for full Home Rule.
That's everything minus Defence and Foreign Affairs.
After that it's onwards to independence.

Considering how much Scotland is reliant on the Barnet Formula by which English tax payers pretty much prop up Scotland, how on earth would Scotland be able to afford Home rule and independence? During the referendum we were told by Salmond and Sturgeon that north sea oil tax revenues would pay for everything. Well that turned out to be a lie as the oil price crashed.

 

[ivanhoe]

Anyone with any thoughts of the Russell Brand exhortation for voters to give their support to the Labour Party?

If anyone needs guidance from Russell Brand then you deserve to lose your right to vote.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Home rule for the North of England !!!!!!!

It is time to start resisting the likely perpetual control by the Tory-dominated south.

It is! Look at what SNP did for Scotland. Far too long have millions of poor Northerners have had their livelihoods ruined by politicians who were born into aristocracy and educated at Eton/Oxford/Cambridge.

In Germany states like Saxony do well with a devolved assembly. if Osborne really wanted a Northern Powerhouse he should give us equal power to Scotland. Here's a proposed flag I found.