Theres a certain grim inevitability about the D78 now (especially in light of the vague suggestion by politicians of "Pacer replacement" rather than "no more bottom of the barrel DMUs", so that replacing a 142 with a "278" will allow them to claim that they've replaced Pacers as promised)... if you thought that getting rid of Pacers would mean an end to basic units then be careful what you wish for! Id like to think that places will get either Pacers or D78s seems unfair to blight a depot/region with both!
The positives are:
- It may mean the ROSCOs will have to reduce their prices on Pacer leasing for the next franchises (since a plentiful amount of D78s means competition, which may mean lower leasing costs).
- It buys some breathing space from the electrification delays.
- Its an example of the private sector taking some risk and entrepreneurial spirit, trying to solve a problem that many enthusiasts acknowledge exists (not enough Provincial DMUs, Pacers are bad) am not pretending that they are doing this for altruistic reasons, but Im fed up of reading people claim that the railways are a risk free area for private companies, a licence to print money heres a private company taking a risk on providing a product that nobody may decide to lease.
Apart from that though, theres little in the way of sunshine headed our way:
The Marple/ New Mills lines look a reasonable prospect, on the proviso that the Hope Valley extensions are 156 run (to cope with the running speeds between 158s and 185s through the Hope Valley). As the Hope Valley services could be run as a three hour cycle, it should be possible to path them to have a ten minute layover in Manchester and a ten minute layover in Sheffield, without interworking with any other services. Maybe even upgrade the service to hourly, using the saved DMUs?
The problem with Marple/ New Mills is whether downgrading from 75mph to 60mph would slow down the TPE services through Guide Bridge (I know this is a tediously slow part of the Transpennine route, so maybe the 185s arent pathed much above 60mph anyway?). Plus, theyd only take up a handful of diagrams (and I cant think of any other suitable services around Manchester, without inventing new ones) which leaves the microfleet problem.
In the rest of the North West youve got:
- Blackpool South Colne four units for an hourly service (until the SELRAP plan to upgrade this line to HS4, of course...)
- Morecambe Lancaster Skipton two units could provide a regular bi-hourly service (instead of the current mishmash timetable - connecting to faster EMUs at Skipton for Bradford/Leeds)
- Lancaster Barrow three units for an hourly service (with gaps for whatever Manchester services remain)
- Barrow Carlisle six units for an hourly service
- Preston Ormskirk one unit for the current service
...so thats sixteen units, add in spare capacity (for maintenance etc) and that takes you to around twenty operating on routes that have very little running in the way of fast services. You could maybe throw in an extra DMU on a Lancaster Morecambe shuttle - that always seems like a line that could sustain a fairly frequent service (given the regular Stagecoach buses, plus the busy roads between the two).
The North East is a possibility, but realistically I think youd need to retain a number of 156s (esp on Newcastle Morpeth/ Chathill for reasons of speed, Newcastle Carlisle, the school trips on the Whitby branch and the morning Darlington Newcastle service up the ECML which needs faster units).
Plus youd need to find depot space around Yorkshire for the dozen-or-so 142s that Heaton maintain for us (60mph stock not being suitable for the returns to depot up the ECML, and not suitable for routes like Sheffield Dearne Valley Leeds which are tightly pathed between Voyagers and 225s, before anyone complains that I dont want D78s in my own backyard).
Lincolnshire may be more suitable (Barton branch plus EMT services from Cleethorpes/ Doncaster Lincoln - Peterborough/ Newark Northgate), but thats not going to free up a large number of DMUs.
West Yorkshire has slim pickings. Maybe you could use a few up on a Leeds Castleford Pontefract Knottingley Pontefract Wakefield Kirkgate Castleford Leeds round trip (which would mean withdrawing the unnecessary third service an hour from Wakefield Kirkgate to Barnsley, running an hourly Dodworth Barnsley Sheffield service as a replacement further south). Hmm, a half hourly Sheffield Dodworth stopper with hourly extension to Huddersfield could use up half a dozen D78s, maybe worth a shot. Maybe even through services to Lincoln (currently dominated by 142s, and separate from any fast services)? See, I can accept some on my local route... (notwithstanding the previous point about no area being lumbered with Pacers and D78s).
Most other West Yorkshire services are either pathed between 100mph services (Wakefield Huddersfield, Wakefield Bradford) or are going to be electrified (Leeds Selby)... apart from the idea of putting them on the Harrogate Line. After all, the Chamber of Commerce wanted these trains, seems only right that they are first in line to receive them (albeit without the line being electrified)!
Branches in Devon and Cornwall are a possibility, but we have fifty-ish freed up 165/166s moving to the South West, so some look to be coming onto these lines.
Nobody has mentioned west Wales though. Therell be quite a few DMU diagrams from Swansea to Fishguard, Milford Haven, Pembroke and Shrewsbury (Heart of Wales) and almost no fast services west of Swansea could these 60mph units work those services (when the Valley Lines and Cardiff Swansea are electrified)? Theyd be virtually segregated from other trains, and I dont think that the timetables are particularly stretching in terms of speeds...
Slimmer pickings in north Wales a couple on the Bidston line plus one to Blaneu Ffestiniog (the Crewe Chester shuttle seems to get a fairly random assortment of whatevers spare in Chester depot), may be harder to justify based on current franchise boundaries.