RAGNARØKR;1311758 said:
In an ideal world the railways would be ordering a large fleet of go-anywhere vehicles for loco-haulage in push-pull mode, compatible with the mark 3 fleet, and a fleet of electric and diesel locomotives to power them. In due course the Voyagers would be converted to be compatible with this fleet, as would the loco-hauled and HST mark 3 stock, plus what is left of the Irish fleet, plus the 442 units if and when they are no longer needed as EMUs.
The problem is that the UK network is made up of a lot of lines and services which see up to 4 coach long trains (which I seem to recall you have said in the past is too short for loco hauling), of the rest quite a lot of services need to run with the maximum number of coaches or are South East EMU services. That only leaves relatively few services where loco hauled trains would be useful and even those are often better run as DMU's (with running speeds of up to 100 mph) as they can split and run as short formations to a couple of destinations (again 4 or less coaches).
Also the track access charges for the cheapest loco is nearly 3 times that of the most expensive DMU coach and most DMU's (including the class 158's and 159's) are cheaper than a mark 3 coach, meaning that the lease costs of the Loco and coaches would have to be quite a lot lower than a DMU for loco hauling to be a viable option.
It will earn precisely nothing until 2026 as it cannot be opened in stages, thus it will represent sunk capital with no yield. In the meantime, interest charges start to stack up.
It would have made more sense to build the line southwards from Edinburgh/Glasgow and Tyneside to the Midlands, where building could have proceeded relatively quickly, there are few intermediate places, and the benefits could have been banked.
If everything was equal that would make sense, however there are a few flaws in that suggestion:
- Firstly HS2 isn't currently planned to run to Scotland, so that is extra money that would need to be spent
- Secondly the numbers of passengers between Tyneside and the Midlands is probably a fraction of that of the numbers of passengers between London and all the places services by HS2. As basicly HS2 works because it is running into London, all the people that will be able to travel between the other stations are an added bonus. Which means although you would be receiving an income earlier it may not cover the costs of running the trains, let alone off setting some of the interest costs.
- Thirdly, even if the passenger numbers were enough to pay for running the trains and covering some of the interest costs that is likely to be at the expense of most of the existing services, potentially resulting in a reduction of services for many towns along the line. Conversely, even though the Birmingham - London section of HS2 may take a few more years more to be built than your suggestion, once it is running it could bring much more relief to the existing lines enabling more services to places between the two.