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US Presidential Election

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Mojo

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Kind of, but I'm not sure what the question was in that poll. I'm assuming the question was "Who is your preferred candidate in the US presidential elections?" but I was more wondering what the results would be if they were the two candidates in the country of those being asked the question.

I guess the answers would be little different, but I can understand how some might answer the two questions differently.
 
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Royston Vasey

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I think most people this side of the pond are going to get a big surprise when Obama crashes and burns!

He's totally lost his heartland among black voters in Chicago where he is universally derided as "Bath House Barry" (do the research!)

No it's off to Hawaii in January for Michelle and Barry!

Wrong. Or at least, you're wrong to extrapolate to the whole election result from this anyway. Firstly so what, it is one city. Furthermore Illinois is a staunchly democratic state with a big 20 electoral votes. Obama will win Illinois.

He is ahead in the polls on most issues and overall popularity among likely voters, although not by much. He has about 90% of the combined black and Hispanic vote. However, he relies on these voters to actually turn out and they are less likely to do so. Romney will win the majority of the white vote. Obama needs to win about 40% of the white vote in the swing states and if so he should win the election.

Right now, it is too close to call, particularly in the strong terms you have used.
 

Ferret

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Wrong. Or at least, you're wrong to extrapolate to the whole election result from this anyway. Firstly so what, it is one city. Furthermore Illinois is a staunchly democratic state with a big 20 electoral votes. Obama will win Illinois.

He is ahead in the polls on most issues and overall popularity among likely voters, although not by much. He has about 90% of the combined black and Hispanic vote. However, he relies on these voters to actually turn out and they are less likely to do so. Romney will win the majority of the white vote. Obama needs to win about 40% of the white vote in the swing states and if so he should win the election.

Right now, it is too close to call, particularly in the strong terms you have used.

That's probably the best analysis I've seen from this side of the pond, based on what my friend from Richmond, VA tells me. Way too close to call but don't be surprised if Obama loses is how he sees it.
 

Royston Vasey

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That's probably the best analysis I've seen from this side of the pond, based on what my friend from Richmond, VA tells me. Way too close to call but don't be surprised if Obama loses is how he sees it.

I'm in New York these days, better positioned to comment!
 

SS4

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I'd like to know why too, but maybe, like Romney he's pro-rich people, anti-minority groups, anti-gay, anti-abortion, anti-renewable energy, pro-car, anti-rail, etc...? If not then there's no reason to like him!

I've not really been following it but I saw a few minutes of a debate where Romney was basically saying that they should use more fossil fuels and not bother with renewables and the only measure of success was the current price. In his little world, peak oil doesn't exist. It's not a viable future for the world, but there are millions of Americans who only care about the present situation for them only, so he'll get plenty of votes, no matter how ridiculous his policies are.

Romney's abandoning all his right wing stances to look more centrist hoping the electorate will forget - the eponymous Romnesia.
 

ainsworth74

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Romney's abandoning all his right wing stances to look more centrist hoping the electorate will forget - the eponymous Romnesia.

Alternatively he's coming more towards the centre because he no longer has to hold insane right wing views in order to get the nomination of his party and for the Republican Party you need to be way on the right to get the nomination as only the extreme wing of the party can normally be bothered to vote in primary's.

Then again he could just be trying to do whatever it takes to win the election.
 

Eagle

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Romney's abandoning all his right wing stances to look more centrist hoping the electorate will forget - the eponymous Romnesia.

Is this the same Romney that pushed through pro-choice legislation in his early days as governor, but is now supposedly staunchly pro-life?
 

SS4

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Alternatively he's coming more towards the centre because he no longer has to hold insane right wing views in order to get the nomination of his party and for the Republican Party you need to be way on the right to get the nomination as only the extreme wing of the party can normally be bothered to vote in primary's.

Then again he could just be trying to do whatever it takes to win the election.

That's accurate yet depressing

Is this the same Romney that pushed through pro-choice legislation in his early days as governor, but is now supposedly staunchly pro-life?

The very same.

On an unrelated issue here's a picture:
2140391248.png
 

kylemore

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Wrong. Or at least, you're wrong to extrapolate to the whole election result from this anyway. Firstly so what, it is one city. Furthermore Illinois is a staunchly democratic state with a big 20 electoral votes. Obama will win Illinois.

He is ahead in the polls on most issues and overall popularity among likely voters, although not by much. He has about 90% of the combined black and Hispanic vote. However, he relies on these voters to actually turn out and they are less likely to do so. Romney will win the majority of the white vote. Obama needs to win about 40% of the white vote in the swing states and if so he should win the election.

Right now, it is too close to call, particularly in the strong terms you have used.

Maybe you're right, don't get me wrong I don't hold much of a candle for Romney, I just find the whole thing fascinating as a form of entertainment which, after all, is probably what it is! :lol:
 

Ivo

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Alternatively he's coming more towards the centre because he no longer has to hold insane right wing views in order to get the nomination of his party and for the Republican Party you need to be way on the right to get the nomination as only the extreme wing of the party can normally be bothered to vote in primary's.

A notable difference between British and American politics can be seen from this (very poor) "illustration":

Pty L---------R
Lab ---X-------
Dem -----X-----
Con -------X---
Rep ---------X-


This is based roughly on how each Party stands from the British perspective of Left/Right politics. The central position of the Democrats appeals to essentially everyone, given the alternative of the "far" Republicans.

Or something like that anyway.
 

MidnightFlyer

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A notable difference between British and American politics can be seen from this (very poor) "illustration":

Pty L---------R
Lab ---X-------
Dem -----X-----
Con -------X---
Rep ---------X-


This is based roughly on how each Party stands from the British perspective of Left/Right politics. The central position of the Democrats appeals to essentially everyone, given the alternative of the "far" Republicans.

Or something like that anyway.

The (British) Conservatives are far too right on your diagram, they should be in the dead centre alongside Labour!

From studying American Politics, I get the sense that over there the Republicans get most of the Rightist vote and the Democrats most of the Leftist vote, regardless of how far on that wing you lie. Unlike in Britain where there are three or four mainstream parties on each wing, in America those two tend to be the 'umbrella' for the majority of that wing. Each has their own core principals and so long as you broadly fit them you tend to vote for that party, no matter how moderate or extreme you are, unlike the UK. (I hope that makes sense!)

Edit - And I certainly wouldn't call the Democrats a chiefly Centrist party, as your diagram implies!
 
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Ivo

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The funny thing is that whilst I am usually very much Right, if admittedly fairly close to the Centre, in the States I am very much on the side of the Left. I just feel that the American definition of Left is what we would call Centre (or near-Centre), and that the Republicans are arrogant idiots (mostly).
 

LE Greys

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The funny thing is that whilst I am usually very much Right, if admittedly fairly close to the Centre, in the States I am very much on the side of the Left. I just feel that the American definition of Left is what we would call Centre (or near-Centre), and that the Republicans are arrogant idiots (mostly).

Yes, the US is a remarkably right-wing country (50 years of Cold War may have had something to do with it). It would be interesting to see how they would react to a genuine socialist party advocating full nationalisation of everything important, an active welfare state, redistribution, workers' rights, etc.

Mind you, we don't have one of those either (unless you count the SWP).
 

yorksrob

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in America those two tend to be the 'umbrella' for the majority of that wing.

Which was how things were over here until recently as it happens.

I think that whilst the Conservatives are fairly centrist in terms of social policy, I feel that Ivo's diagram is still correct to place them on the right on account of their free market leanings.
 

LE Greys

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Apparently, I should vote for Obama on healthcare, economic and environmental issues, but Romney on foreign policy and science issues, although he would be my fourth choice, with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (who I've never heard of) as my third and second. However, I kept having to take one of the extra options, because a lot of the questions seemed like false dichotomies.

And I'm not taking that bet.
 

Butts

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Will the current hurricane and it's aftermath help or hinder Obama's election prospects ?
 

jon0844

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Will the current hurricane and it's aftermath help or hinder Obama's election prospects ?

Help, I'd have thought.

Rather like winning a war, this is an opportunity for Obama to be seen as a leader.
 

LE Greys

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When will someone put it down to a secret Democrat weather control satellite? ;)
 

jon0844

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As long as he does not follow the example of George Bush whilst the incumbent :lol:

I am sure he's fully aware of that.

Mind you, I'd imagine Obama would get the vote in NYC anyway.
 

Ivo

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According to that link I should vote Stein :shock:

Apparently I side with the Democrats as a Party (over 90% agreement!) more than Stein's Green lot though, which sounds fair enough. Oddly enough, the economy seems to be the most prominent reason why I should vote for Stein and not Obama though!
 

Aictos

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According to that quiz, I ought to back Obama which got 86% of the result and Stein with 74% of the result.

Never realised I was a closet democrat!
 

SS4

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According to that quiz, I ought to back Obama which got 86% of the result and Stein with 74% of the result.

Never realised I was a closet democrat!

TBF we're a lot further left than the US in general, the Democrats are not of the left like Old Labour were.

Seems like there are a lot of voters out there that wouldn't care if Romney genuinely thought that Monday followed Wednesday if it got that black, Kenyan, Muslim socialist* out of office.
* delete as appropriate


It'd be interesting to see what any US citizens thought to be honest. I get a sizeable proportional of my election news from reddit which is not in the slightest bit neutral. My result below, hardly surprising but if I were eligible I'd vote Democrat and Obama to keep Romney and the Republicans out of office (if the vote was under PR I'd vote green and Stein first and Obama second)

jFuro.jpg
 
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Ivo

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Does all this not prove my points from previously in the thread about the respective leanings of us against the States? Our version of Left to Right is such that essentially everything the Republican Party can throw out is extreme right and as such the Democrats almost always win.

By the way, I don't know if anyone saw this, but on Monday night the BBC were doing a piece on Bill Clinton standing in Obama's place in Florida due to Obama being in Washington to "lead" the country throlugh Sandy. Instead of crediting him as "Bill Clinton, former President" they put "Mitt Romney, candidate". Morons.
 

LE Greys

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Does all this not prove my points from previously in the thread about the respective leanings of us against the States? Our version of Left to Right is such that essentially everything the Republican Party can throw out is extreme right and as such the Democrats almost always win.

Exactly!

By the way, I don't know if anyone saw this, but on Monday night the BBC were doing a piece on Bill Clinton standing in Obama's place in Florida due to Obama being in Washington to "lead" the country throlugh Sandy. Instead of crediting him as "Bill Clinton, former President" they put "Mitt Romney, candidate". Morons.

Yet another production error by BBC News! It's got a lot worse since they moved out of Television Centre.
 

Peter Mugridge

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Message from The Queen regarding the American election:
To the citizens of the United States of America from Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II

In light of your failure in recent years to nominate competent candidates for President of the USA and thus to govern yourselves, we hereby give notice of the revocation of your independence, effective immediately. (You should look up 'revocation' in the Oxford English Dictionary.)

Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II will resume monarchical duties over all states, commonwealths, and territories (except North Dakota, which she does not fancy).

Your new Prime Minister, David Cameron, will appoint a Governor for America without the need for further elections.

Congress and the Senate will be disbanded. A questionnaire may be circulated next year to determine whether any of you noticed.

To aid in the transition to a British Crown dependency, the following rules are introduced with immediate effect:
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1. The letter 'U' will be reinstated in words such as 'colour,' 'favour,' 'labour' and 'neighbour.' Likewise, you will learn to spell 'doughnut' without skipping half the letters, and the suffix '-ize' will be replaced by the suffix '-ise.' Generally, you will be expected to raise your vocabulary to acceptable levels. (look up 'vocabulary').
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2. Using the same twenty-seven words interspersed with filler noises such as ''like' and 'you know' is an unacceptable and inefficient form of communication. There is no such thing as U.S. English. We will let Microsoft know on your behalf. The Microsoft spell-checker will be adjusted to take into account the reinstated letter 'u'' and the elimination of '-ize.'
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3. July 4th will no longer be celebrated as a holiday.
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4. You will learn to resolve personal issues without using guns, lawyers, or therapists. The fact that you need so many lawyers and therapists shows that you're not quite ready to be independent. Guns should only be used for shooting grouse. If you can't sort things out without suing someone or speaking to a therapist, then you're not ready to shoot grouse.
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5. Therefore, you will no longer be allowed to own or carry anything more dangerous than a vegetable peeler. Although a permit will be required if you wish to carry a vegetable peeler in public.
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6. All intersections will be replaced with roundabouts, and you will start driving on the left side with immediate effect. At the same time, you will go metric with immediate effect and without the benefit of conversion tables. Both roundabouts and metrication will help you understand the British sense of humour.
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7. The former USA will adopt UK prices on petrol (which you have been calling gasoline) of roughly $10/US gallon. Get used to it.
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8. You will learn to make real chips. Those things you call French fries are not real chips, and those things you insist on calling potato chips are properly called crisps. Real chips are thick cut, fried in animal fat, and dressed not with catsup but with vinegar.
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9. The cold, tasteless stuff you insist on calling beer is not actually beer at all. Henceforth, only proper British Bitter will be referred to as beer, and European brews of known and accepted provenance will be referred to as Lager. South African beer is also acceptable, as they are pound for pound the greatest sporting nation on earth and it can only be due to the beer. They are also part of the British Commonwealth - see what it did for them. American brands will be referred to as Near-Frozen Gnat's Urine, so that all can be sold without risk of further confusion.
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10. Hollywood will be required occasionally to cast English actors as good guys. Hollywood will also be required to cast English actors to play English characters. Watching Andie Macdowell attempt English dialect in Four Weddings and a Funeral was an experience akin to having one's ears removed with a cheese grater.
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11. You will cease playing American football. There is only one kind of proper football; you call it soccer. Those of you brave enough will, in time, be allowed to play rugby (which has some similarities to American football, but does not involve stopping for a rest every twenty seconds or wearing full kevlar body armour like a bunch of nancies).
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12. Further, you will stop playing baseball. It is not reasonable to host an event called the World Series for a game which is not played outside of America. Since only 2.1% of you are aware there is a world beyond your borders, your error is understandable. You will learn cricket, and we will let you face the South Africans first to take the sting out of their deliveries.
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13.. You must tell us who killed JFK. It's been driving us mad.
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14. An internal revenue agent (i.e. tax collector) from Her Majesty's Government will be with you shortly to ensure the acquisition of all monies due (backdated to 1776).
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15. Daily Tea Time begins promptly at 4 p.m. with proper cups, with saucers, and never mugs, with high quality biscuits (cookies) and cakes; plus strawberries (with cream) when in season.

God Save the Queen!
 
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