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First win Intercity West Coast franchise

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Wath Yard

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First have put in a revenue growth of 10.4% a year on average. This is made up of 5.8% increase in volume and 4.6% increase in yield (price). Yield could, and probably does, include a better yield management system for Advance Purchase than Virgin currently use, and some changes such as have already been suggested on these boards, such as Super Off Peak/Off Peak. They are talking about reduced anytime fares and reduced first class (not surprising because as I've pointed out on these boards before, it has died in the recession). Anyway the 4.6% looks extremely achievable given that they have RPI+1% increases every year and RPI+3% for the next two. It's the 5.8% that looks rather heroic. Based on the Premium on the First Bid they ramp up seriously in Years 3-6. A cynic might suggest that Years 1 & 2 they spend getting bums on seats, and then the price rises start.

I've got neither the time nor the interest to go through all the financial details of the bids but could the 5.8% increase in passengers not be partially accounted for by the additional stops at Milton Keynes. Milton Keynes is a rapidly growing town, and passengers wouldn't even need to necessarily use FWC's services to achieve 'passenger growth'. First have stated more services will call there, but I don't know how many extra services they are tlaking about.

An ORCATs raid perhaps?
 
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HH

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I've got neither the time nor the interest to go through all the financial details of the bids but could the 5.8% increase in passengers not be partially accounted for by the additional stops at Milton Keynes. Milton Keynes is a rapidly growing town, and passengers wouldn't even need to necessarily use FWC's services to achieve 'passenger growth'. First have stated more services will call there, but I don't know how many extra services they are tlaking about.

An ORCATs raid perhaps?

Quite possibly. However PDFH would say that additional income at MK would be offset by less income elsewhere due to increased journey times. First may have found something that other bidders didn't. Or they may just be taking a punt...
 

LNW-GW Joint

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I've got neither the time nor the interest to go through all the financial details of the bids but could the 5.8% increase in passengers not be partially accounted for by the additional stops at Milton Keynes. Milton Keynes is a rapidly growing town, and passengers wouldn't even need to necessarily use FWC's services to achieve 'passenger growth'. First have stated more services will call there, but I don't know how many extra services they are tlaking about.

An ORCATs raid perhaps?

The only growth in WC train paths is the "10th path" off-peak which is how they double services to Preston (the extra goes to Blackpool/Lancaster taking stops out of the Glasgow train).
So it's likely to be another 1tph at MK to the North West.

Orcats doesn't come into it.
In any case LM are expanding services via MK with 110mph running, so the balance will stay much the same.
 

F Great Eastern

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I think you can be nice. Whether as nice as people think RG is, I dont know.
This is mainly how he makes himself seem though. Both Jobs and Branson were seen as the best things around, all because of how they made themself seem. Too many people taken in by both

The only growth in WC train paths is the "10th path" off-peak which is how they double services to Preston (the extra goes to Blackpool/Lancaster taking stops out of the Glasgow train).
So it's likely to be another 1tph at MK to the North West.

Orcats doesn't come into it.
In any case LM are expanding services via MK with 110mph running, so the balance will stay much the same.

Conference call with First Investors:
http://www.firstgroup.com/assets/me...y_West_Coast_franchise_award_audio_150812.mp3
 

Pen Mill

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Does anyone know what this means ?
I'm sure that this statement from FWC is supposed to highlight where some of the extra capacity is coming from but can't figure out what they mean :-

–106 new Pendolinocarriages in 2012 creating 28,000 extra seats
–Seat occupancy only 35% following this capacity increase.


Does this mean that (A) loadings on the entire fleet are just 35% in which case why were the trains lengthened ? or (B) Loadings on the additional 106 carriages are 35% which is just as well because only just over 50% have been introduced and that so recently as to be meaningless in statistical terms ?

Call me a cynic but I wish these spin-doctors would spin something meaningful once in a while.
 
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John55

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Does anyone know what this means ?
I'm sure that this statement from FWC is supposed to highlight where some of the extra capacity is coming from but can't figure out what they mean :-

–106 new Pendolinocarriages in 2012 creating 28,000 extra seats
–Seat occupancy only 35% following this capacity increase.


Does this mean that (A) loadings on the entire fleet are just 35% in which case why were the trains lengthened ? or (B) Loadings on the additional 106 carriages are 35% which is just as well because only just over 50% have been introduced and that so recently as to be meaningless in statistical terms ?

Call me a cynic but I wish these spin-doctors would spin something meaningful once in a while.

It means exactly what it says.

106 extra coaches being added to the existing fleet in 2012.

After adding the extra coaches on average 35% of seats will have someone sitting in them.

To put this in context BR achieved 37% loading on InterCity services in the 70s and 80s.

The figure for average seat occupancy will always be lowish for all the usual reasons;

Peak traffic is in one direction only.

Trains are not necessarily full at the start or end of a journey but may be full in the middle or the other end of the journey.
 

HH

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The only growth in WC train paths is the "10th path" off-peak which is how they double services to Preston (the extra goes to Blackpool/Lancaster taking stops out of the Glasgow train).
So it's likely to be another 1tph at MK to the North West.

Orcats doesn't come into it.
In any case LM are expanding services via MK with 110mph running, so the balance will stay much the same.

I've just had it explained to me. They have a number of trains that are pick up/set down only. If they change these to full service they will get ORCATS money. There are a couple of issues with this - crowding from London to MK, and the fact that LM set the fare London-MK and have a different Peak to WC, which opens the door to some serious split ticketing savings. It's possible that First are being very cynical about this, and will keep quiet about the TT changes...
 

Wath Yard

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Orcats doesn't come into it.

ORCATs does come into it. If they increase the number of trains calling at Milton Keynes they increase their share of the Milton Keynes - London ticket revenue. First have stated they will do this, and is a seperate point to whether they use the 10th path from Euston or not or what the destination of those trains are.

The whole Virgin XC business plan was just a glorified ORCATs raid, but they weren't going to state it publicly.
 

Pen Mill

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It means exactly what it says.

106 extra coaches being added to the existing fleet in 2012.

After adding the extra coaches on average 35% of seats will have someone sitting in them.

To put this in context BR achieved 37% loading on InterCity services in the 70s and 80s.

The figure for average seat occupancy will always be lowish for all the usual reasons;

Peak traffic is in one direction only.

Trains are not necessarily full at the start or end of a journey but may be full in the middle or the other end of the journey.
Now I'm enlightened . So when all the sets (31 units) have been stretched , the loadings will be even less than 35% ?
So why the extra coaches ?
You have 65% spare capacity to satisfy peak demand , that is outrageous whereas you seem to think it's acceptable , and I do understand what you mean about average loadings , still outrageous.
The journey structure is all wrong in this case.
 

island

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All the senior management will easily find jobs elsewhere. All the other staff, for the time being, are safe under TUPE

Not the temporary staff, of whom there are a lot with contracts to 8 December...
 

Wath Yard

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Now I'm enlightened . So when all the sets (31 units) have been stretched , the loadings will be even less than 35% ?
So why the extra coaches ?
You have 65% spare capacity to satisfy peak demand , that is outrageous whereas you seem to think it's acceptable , and I do understand what you mean about average loadings , still outrageous.
The journey structure is all wrong in this case.

No. First have stated the 35% figure is calculated after the lengthening has taken place. The figure in the document that particularly suprised me was that only 60% of journeys start/finish in London. When you look at the stopping patterns on VWC, e.g. Glasgow services 1st stop Warrington for example, I would have expected far more than 60% to start/finish in London, and these 60% represent 80% of revenue so if the number of passengers travelling to London can be increased revenue will increase disproportionately to the increase in passengers.

There does appear to be a good potential to increase passenger numbers, it's just a question of whether First can do it.
 

John55

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Now I'm enlightened . So when all the sets (31 units) have been stretched , the loadings will be even less than 35% ?
So why the extra coaches ?
You have 65% spare capacity to satisfy peak demand , that is outrageous whereas you seem to think it's acceptable , and I do understand what you mean about average loadings , still outrageous.
The journey structure is all wrong in this case.

After adding the extra coaches on average 35% of seats will have someone sitting in them.

Loadings on trains are not uniform through the day or the journey. A train leaving Euston for Glasgow stopping at say 8 stations may be full leaving Euston and 10% full arriving at Glasgow giving a relatively low average loading figure on a train which had every seat taken leaving London.

If the journey structure is wrong what do you suggest - forcing passengers to travel to Birmingham when they want to get off at Rugby?

One of the great improvements in train services since about 1960 is the running of frequent, fast trains using marginal costings to justify them. This almost guarentees lots of empty seats. If we go back to the victorian or edwardian style of train services then we would have many fewer, longer trains with high load factors. Do you really want to go back to a type of service where there are 6 trains per day to Manchester/Liverpool/Sheffield/Leeds from London? (and of course no discount tickets).
 
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sprinterguy

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I know it's really window-dressing, but at least Virgin took naming seriously, with unified themes containing only a few breaks.
Indeed, from an enthusiasts’ point of view it will be saddening to see the well ordered, uniform naming policy lost from Virgin’s fleet, in the same way as I was disappointed to see the themed set of names removed from all of the Crosscountry Voyagers upon their transfer to Arriva from Virgin. I think that carrying a name adds something to a trains’ identity, and is considerably more interesting than a set of numbers. It was pleasing to see Virgin take such a thorough approach to naming it’s new trains.

Which reminds me, when the Pendolinos were new and still in the process of being delivered, I made a point of photographing each unit and its’ nameplate, but I lost interest in being anywhere near that thorough in my hobby before I managed to finish the job. While my railway interests are no longer nearly that intense and methodical, it seems a shame to leave the job only 80% finished forever more now that we only have four months left until the names will be removed. Even if I can’t be bothered taking photos of the trains themselves, I think that it must surely be time to take the opportunity to start grabbing a quick snap of the nameplates on my commute each day, given that I have to walk past them every time I board or alight the train at Euston.
 

baza585

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Sir Fuzzyface isn't taking this very well, is he?

Indeed. Perhaps if he hadn't tried to defraud the Government of taxes earlier in his business career (only bailed out by his mother re-mortgaging the family home) they might feel more favourably disposed towards him!

But frankly I'm delighted we no longer have to put up with him telling us all how to run an industry he knows precious little about. Both Virgin franchises have had their bad moments and frankly XC has never recovered from Virgin's incompetence.
 

harz99

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After adding the extra coaches on average 35% of seats will have someone sitting in them.

Loadings on trains are not uniform through the day or the journey. A train leaving Euston for Glasgow stopping at say 8 stations may be full leaving Euston and 10% full arriving at Glasgow giving a relatively low average loading figure on a train which had every seat taken leaving London.


One of the great improvements in train services since about 1960 is the running of frequent, fast trains using marginal costings to justify them. This almost guarentees lots of empty seats.

Yep' that's also the problem with using averages. Split the Virgin services into the main routes of Euston to Scotland, Euston to Wolverhampton/Birmingham and Euston to Manchester (yes I know there are others) and what do you have?

On the one hand the Anglo Scottish route with at best 1tph, and on the other hand two high frequency routes with at least 2tph and normally 3tph. So loads of empty seats on the latter two, and normally very few on the first except possibly between GLC and CAR.
It's the Anglo Scottish route that cries out for more trains at least as far as Carlisle, hopefully this will happen and we will see the end of the stupidity of terminating some northbound services at Lancaster.
 

philjo

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It would be interesting to see the average loading figures specifically for standard class as the 4 1st class coaches probably account for a lot of the low occupancy rate quoted.
 

Whistler40145

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If a TOC has two franchises within the same operating area e.g. First West Coast & First Transpennine Express can they transfer a service e.g. Manchester Airport to Glasgow/Edinburgh into it's West Coast franchise enabling better use of traction?
 

Lampshade

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If a TOC has two franchises within the same operating area e.g. First West Coast & First Transpennine Express can they transfer a service e.g. Manchester Airport to Glasgow/Edinburgh into it's West Coast franchise enabling better use of traction?

Nope, because that is well thought out, joined-up thinking and this is the railway.

The 110mph 350s will be for that route.
 

dvboy

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Looks nice, but wouldn't Arriva Trains Wales have something to say about that?
If it was a regular service it would make their Chester-Shrewsbury-Birmingham service redundant.
Splitting at Wolves won't be popular, and you surely wouldn't have 10-coach sets wandering round Shropshire off-peak.
The simplest would be a single set doing the whole loop but I can't see that working from Euston to Wolverhampton.
But running all the Voyagers from a Chester/Crewe base, once the Scots are electric, seems a good idea.

I really don't fancy all the Euston-Wolverhampton trains being replaced by Voyagers so that they can go wandering around Shropshire.
 

emoaconr

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If a TOC has two franchises within the same operating area e.g. First West Coast & First Transpennine Express can they transfer a service e.g. Manchester Airport to Glasgow/Edinburgh into it's West Coast franchise enabling better use of traction?

And also remember that TransPennine Express is 45% owned by Keolis, SNCF in disguise.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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If a TOC has two franchises within the same operating area e.g. First West Coast & First Transpennine Express can they transfer a service e.g. Manchester Airport to Glasgow/Edinburgh into it's West Coast franchise enabling better use of traction?

You can sub-lease stock between franchises, happens all the time.
But neither has a surplus of stock just now.
You can't switch TOC boundaries or assets without DfT say so.
Now that WC is settled with First, the next big boundary issue is what happens to the adjacent franchises (LM, TP and NT) when they expire in the next few years.
 

Pen Mill

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. A train leaving Euston for Glasgow stopping at say 8 stations may be full leaving Euston and 10% full arriving at Glasgow giving a relatively low average loading figure on a train which had every seat taken leaving London.

If the journey structure is wrong what do you suggest - forcing passengers to travel to Birmingham when they want to get off at Rugby?

One of the great improvements in train services since about 1960 is the running of frequent, fast trains using marginal costings to justify them. This almost guarentees lots of empty seats. If we go back to the victorian or edwardian style of train services then we would have many fewer, longer trains with high load factors. Do you really want to go back to a type of service where there are 6 trains per day to Manchester/Liverpool/Sheffield/Leeds from London? (and of course no discount tickets).

If by marginal costing, you mean cramming the network to capacity to lower the unit cost per "potential" journey , I'm comfortable with that.
At the second level , having empty trains @ 10 ? Million a time running up & down all day means that someone somewhere is barking mad and missed the whole point of level 1 (network capacity).

Why run a train to Glasgow if it's 10% full , you're providing a luxury service using luxury assets for zero gain ,I don't get this at all , you might as well issue airline tickets to the passenegrs for Glasgow and send the trains back to the ROSCO.

EDIT
With regard to your Rugby man and I know you were just quoting an example , there is 1 fast (virgin) and 2 slow LM per hour. that's pretty good for a smallish town
 

sprinterguy

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Why run a train to Glasgow if it's 10% full , you're providing a luxury service using luxury assets for zero gain ,I don't get this at all , you might as well issue airline tickets to the passenegrs for Glasgow and send the trains back to the ROSCO.
You can't just send the trains back to the ROSCO, as they are running full at the London end of the route so are very much required even if loadings are light towards the "country" end of the route. Where would you propose terminating these services then if they are not going to run all the way to Glasgow?

And you can't just consider giving all Glasgow passengers airline tickets, because what about all the Glasgow passengers travelling from intermediate stations such as Preston or Carlisle, and not London, who would otherwise use that train?
 
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rail-britain

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Why run a train to Glasgow if it's 10% full , you're providing a luxury service using luxury assets for zero gain ,I don't get this at all
The majority of services will typically be near to capacity on departure from Euston and as far as Preston
The franchise then specifies the minimum number of services which must then run through to destinations beyond Preston
Running the services completely through to Glasgow, even with only 10% passengers, makes operational sense as such services will normally terminate there and can then run empty to depot for overnight cleaning, maintenance, and preparation for the next day

The alternative is to leave the train overnight in Preston station, complete a basic clean, and hope it does not break down until its next visit to depot

The opposite can occur southbound
The first early morning Euston service runs pretty much empty, in effect this becomes a positioning move so it may as well carry some passengers
However its first southbound service on that diagram is completely different and can often be near to full departing Glasgow and full at Preston
 

tbtc

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If FWC are going to run services to Shrewsbury & Telford in the near future, would it not make sense to have a :

London - Wolverhampton - Shrewsbury - Gobowen - Wrexham - Chester?

I was wondering whether they'd try the London - Nuneaton - Walsall - Wolverhampton route to get to Shrewsbury that Virgin were considering in WSMR days (which would get Walsall on the long distance "map" too - a town with almost twice the size of Shrewsbury).

The problem with running a Voyager on the current EBW service is that its a lot smaller than a Pendolino (in the way that running a single Voyager on a London - Manchester - Bolton service is too short), yet a doubled up Voyager would be too much west of Wolves.

I am not one of Crow's greatest fans but if a company promises more services and more trains and offers to pay more to obtain the franchise then it is highly likely that costs will have to be cut somewhere and that is most likely to be of staff or their wages

Before the announcement Crow was claiming that there would be hundreds of job cuts. Now that First have announced they are keeping staff numbers the same (despite all those on temporary contracts, which would have been an issue for Virgin too) he's having to change tack.

Can't be bothered to read through the whole thread.

First's share price closed down 6% - suggesting that the city aren't convinced that West Coast is going to work for them. Although I've nothing against First, it will be interssting to see how long it is before things go to pot.

There's a lot more to First than just the WCML franchise - their problems in the bus market are well documented. Plus anyone informed will have known of their WCML "win" for a few days now. Maybe the dip is due to the markets being unhappy with them keeping so many staff and not making the drastic changes suggested by Bob Crow?

All he cares about is his own personal gain, and getting himself on the TV

Crow or Branson? There are a few similarities... :lol:

what was stopping Virgin implementing some of these ideas prior to the bid ? Yes, he couldnt get the baby Pendos and run to Shrewsbury etc now, but what else in their bid could have been implemented prior to refranchising that would have given them extra brownie points ?? Why say "look what we are going to do" when there was some potential to say "look what we are doing now, let us keep it" ?

A very good point. Since the new stock and service increases (almost ten years ago now) on the WCML, there's not been a huge amount of innovation. Have Virgin decided not to make many improvements in recent years to "keep their powder dry" for the retendering?

I've got neither the time nor the interest to go through all the financial details of the bids but could the 5.8% increase in passengers not be partially accounted for by the additional stops at Milton Keynes. Milton Keynes is a rapidly growing town, and passengers wouldn't even need to necessarily use FWC's services to achieve 'passenger growth'. First have stated more services will call there, but I don't know how many extra services they are tlaking about.

An ORCATs raid perhaps?

The additional trains will mean a roughly 10% increase in the size of the fleet (depending whether you count "trains" or "coaches"), so the extra services planned (both in terms of new destinations e.g. Bolton and frequency increases e.g. Bangor) will hopefully increase passenger numbers.

If by marginal costing, you mean cramming the network to capacity to lower the unit cost per "potential" journey , I'm comfortable with that.
At the second level , having empty trains @ 10 ? Million a time running up & down all day means that someone somewhere is barking mad and missed the whole point of level 1 (network capacity).

Why run a train to Glasgow if it's 10% full , you're providing a luxury service using luxury assets for zero gain ,I don't get this at all , you might as well issue airline tickets to the passenegrs for Glasgow and send the trains back to the ROSCO.

35% sounds like a fairly poor seat utilisation, but its probably about right.

For example, in the morning peak, whilst the trains to London will be pretty full, the ones leaving the capital will be carrying a lot of empty seats. And most trains are going to be a lot busier at the London end than at the other end (Holyhead etc). So in the example of a train 10% loaded at Glasgow, by the time that's coming through Preston/ Wigan etc its going to have picked up a lot more passengers.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Why run a train to Glasgow if it's 10% full , you're providing a luxury service using luxury assets for zero gain ,I don't get this at all , you might as well issue airline tickets to the passenegrs for Glasgow and send the trains back to the ROSCO.

Do you think this doesn't happen on other lines?
Should we terminate your trains at Salisbury and abandon westwards to Yeovil and Exeter (sorry, no air alternative)?

Very few routes are double-ended.
My impression is that Birmingham/Manchester/Preston/Liverpool/Chester are fairly evenly loaded both ways all day.
North of Preston it's very peaky with big flows one way and light the other, switching round during the day.
Edinburgh and Glasgow both have very heavy weekend traffic, for instance, but quite light midweek.
 

howittpie

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After ploughing through all the pages I was travelling on Virgin yesterday!. The franchise was a hot topic of conversation. The passengers around me were not impressed at all with Virgin looseing the franchise but seemed even less so with First winnig it two comment came to light that really hits home how bad in places First group image is they can't even run buses properly we call them worst bus that was lady from Manchester while a guy sat opposite me said had used Great Western alot and his office had dubbed the service last worst western.

From a personal view am disappointed Virgin have lost the franchise but please god not a trolley service they do not work and have yet to meet many passengers who prefer them to a buffet. From my own experience of East Midlands Trains Lon-Nott on a weekend where there iis 1 trolley if you coaches A or B in standard you are lucky if you see the trolley before Leicester and I much prefer to decide when I want refreshments not the trolley staff. Also soft drinks and beer are always warm and coffee is only ever seems to be luke warm from trolleys.
 

Whistler40145

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Thanks for making it clear regarding how franchises work.

With regards to what happens at the end of the Northern Trains franchise, I would amalgamate NT & FTPE.

Is the Blackpool to London service routed via Warrington Bank Quay or will it be routed via Bolton with both services running as one?
 
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